Perhaps the best message to take from a tax perspective is that the Department of Finance has finally got to grips with the challenge of accurately forecasting tax receipts.
Various commentators are deriving lessons from the August Exchequer figures in accordance with the interests of their sponsors. But perhaps the fairest conclusion is that while the national tax figures are not good, at least they are not significantly worse than we thought they might be. While the tax receipts more or less meet forecast figures, the most important comparisons are against prior years. Overall in 2010 Revenue will collect €2bn less than they did last year. And at the end of August 2007, Revenue had collected €8bn more than they had collected by the end of August 2010.
The first sign of a domestic pickup from the tax receipts will be from the VAT figures. Stronger VAT figures will not only reflect stronger consumer demand, but also some recovery of business margins. It is too soon to discern anything more than a glimmer of hope here.