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Irish economic growth set to continue in 2020 if UK stays in EU

Sep 26, 2019
According to Economic & Social Research Institute's Quarterly Economic Commentary 2019, the Irish economy looks set to perform well in 2019, with the headline GDP rate forecast to increase by 4.9%. In 2020, the economy is expected to grow by 3.1%. These forecasts are subject to the technical assumption that the UK’s continued membership in the EU will effectively remain in place after October 2019.

However, there are a number of considerations concerning the growth outlook to bear in mind. First, certain internal transactions of a few multi-national firms are likely to cause a divergence between the growth in headline output and the growth in underlying output in the economy for the present year. While headline growth figures are strong, data for consumption and modified investment would suggest that the rate of output growth has actually slowed somewhat during the year.

Second, the risks from the international environment are increasing due to continued uncertainty over Brexit and the growing evidence of a slowdown amongst some of Ireland’s most important trading partners. If a no-deal Brexit occurs in late 2019, it is not inconceivable that the Irish economy could contract in 2020.

(Source: ERSI)