While people from around the world gather in Glasgow to attend COP26, what is the state of Ireland’s CO₂ emissions and how can we strengthen our commitment? Kim McClenaghan explains.

The Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) provides the estimates of greenhouse gas emissions in Ireland. Its latest data shows that overall greenhouse gas emissions in Ireland decreased by 3.6% in 2020, and energy industry emissions decreased by 7.9%. The decrease was primarily driven by economic restrictions imposed in response to the pandemic, reduced peat use in power generation and an increase in renewable generation. Despite the decrease in emissions, the EPA warns that Ireland is still not on the pathway required to meet future targets and a climate neutral economy. To achieve permanent emission cuts in line with the Paris Agreement, it will be vital that this decrease is not an isolated occurrence, but rather part of a long-term trend as economic activity fully resumes.

In the past year, Ireland’s long-term climate ambition has been restated, and the Climate Action and Low Carbon Development (Amendment) Bill 2021 has been passed into law by the Oireachtas. The Bill sets out the ‘national climate objective’ to achieve a climate-neutral economy no later than 2050. This target is consistent with the Paris Agreement and other international obligations.

Carbon budgets

To realise this ambition, the Climate Change Advisory Council has been tasked with proposing economy-wide carbon budgets, which will then be applied across relevant sectors by the Minister for the Environment and approved by the Government. The first carbon budget will see emissions reduced by 4.8% on average between 2021 and 2025. The second budget, running from 2026 to 2030, will see emissions reduced by 8.3% on average. The first two carbon budgets will provide for a 51% reduction in greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions by 2030 relative to 2018 levels, resulting in a cut of almost 35 million tonnes of CO₂.

The scale and pace of the economic and societal change and investment needed to achieve these targets are significant, but they will be necessary to reduce our emissions consistently and achieve the 1.5°C goal set by the Paris Agreement.

Raising ambition

The overarching aim of the climate summit in Glasgow – COP26 – is to mobilise stronger and more ambitious climate action from governments to keep the 1.5°C Paris Agreement goal within reach. This will require a significant strengthening of climate commitments from all countries, and especially from the G20 as without concerted action from this group, the chances of limiting warming to 2°C, let alone 1.5°C, will all but disappear.

Converting climate pledges into action

Governments have a pivotal role to play in creating the enabling environment for the transition to net-zero through policy and regulatory reform and investment. National targets need to be underpinned by policies that will deliver change at the pace and scale required. These policies will vary by nation, depending on the socio-political and economic context, but need to set the regulatory environment that businesses and individuals operate within, and encourage capital to be deployed to the right places. This requires clear overarching strategy and ambition, long-dated policy mechanisms, and the removal of fiscal or other disincentives.

Private sector execution

We have seen an unprecedented number of net-zero commitments by the private sector in the last 18 months. Over 3,000 businesses are now part of the Race To Zero Campaign, joining 733 cities, 31 regions, 173 of the biggest investors, and 622 higher education institutions. Alongside 120 countries, they form the largest ever alliance committed to achieving net-zero emissions by 2050 at the latest, collectively making up nearly 25% of global CO₂ emissions and over 50% of GDP.

Over half of the sectors that make up the global economy are now committing to halve their emissions within the next decade and achieve near-term emissions reduction targets. In each of these sectors, at least 20% of the major companies by revenue are aligning around sector-specific 2030 goals in line with delivering net-zero emissions by 2050.

Time for all businesses to commit, plan and act

Making the transition to a more environmentally and socially responsible world is now an urgent business imperative. We have less than two business cycles left to deliver the necessary changes. Working alongside governments, and providing the mandate and impetus for them to go further and faster, is vital if we are to keep warming to 1.5°C and avoid catastrophic climate change. By taking firm and decisive action now to halve global emissions by 2030 and reach net-zero emissions by no later than 2050, we have a chance to succeed.

Kim McClenaghan is a Partner in Consulting and Head of the Energy, Utilities & Sustainability Advisory team at PwC.