Declan Black looks to the future to see what 2017 might bring and imagines two competing scenarios.
Scenario one…
It's July 2026 and Ireland has just assumed the rotating presidency of the EU. The key issue for the Irish presidency will be negotiating the terms of the application for entry by the United Kingdom of England and Wales. The Liberal party's landslide victory has given it the mandate to bring England and Wales back into the EU where it would join the independent Scotland and a united Ireland as full members. The 2020 separation of Scotland from the UK and the 2021 reunification of Ireland following border polls triggered by the Good Friday Agreement are old memories now.
Ireland has warmly greeted a surge in migration from continental Europe, with newcomers attracted by its high-tech, green economy and unrivalled opportunities for rural, community-based-yet-connected community while living in a temperate climate. The new arrivals will further boost the State's finances and improve our ageing demographics. Both the migrants and locals love our modern housing stock that Ireland achieved through an enlightened planning and building programme which ran from 2020 to 2025. A full 40% of workers in Ireland are self-employed, operating by choice as contractors and achieving a blissful work/life balance in revitalised rural towns.
New US President Mark Zuckerberg is about to visit to mark the 20 year anniversary of the establishment of Facebook's Irish operations. He will also sign a major series of agreements between the US and EU, underpinning a multilateral and consistent approach to corporate tax and, separately, the use of big data to enhance security by identifying and remediating areas of social deprivation which could give rise to the type of unrest which led to the epidemic of terrorism experienced in the west from 2018 to 2020.
Or, scenario two…
As Ireland assumes the EU presidency in July 2026, its sole task will be to oversee the final dissolution of the Union. In the UK, Prime Minister Farage has just announced legislation banning migration from Ireland and deporting those who arrived in the last three years, as the exodus from a depressed Ireland has resulted in a wave of anti-Irish sentiment in the UK, exacerbated by renewed violence from nationalist and unionist extremists from Northern Ireland.
In Ireland, there is some hope that President Pence will permit a larger than usual quota of Irish migrants to enter the US, anxious to take up manufacturing jobs in the rust belt and happy to pay the 15% special tax on remittances of income to foreign jurisdictions. Ireland's main employer, the National Interest Management Agency (NIMA) is considering a scheme to make the west of Ireland more profitable for farming by taking all the stones out of the fields to build roadside walls. However, it is likely that a series of strikes by the truck drivers employed by NIMA will frustrate this. Meanwhile in Dublin, the short-lived boom caused by the relocation of Russian companies to Ireland attracted by the special 1% tax rate has ended following a directive from President Putin that states such enterprises must now be established in the western Russian province formerly known as Ukraine.
The wall around Afghanistan, Syria, Iraq and Iran is 60% complete. It remains to be seen whether the scheme of deducting the cost of building the wall from the permitted oil exports will be effective.
Conclusion
So which is it to be? As ever, the outcomes are determined by the choices made by people and politicians right now. Will short-term, narrow self-interest prevail over a medium-term, collective approach? We will see in 2026, but the direction will likely be set in 2017.
Declan Black is the Managing Partner of the law firm Mason Hayes & Curran. This piece was first published as the introduction to a series of articles by partners in the firm on what 2017 may bring in various legal disciplines.