Originally posted on Business Post 27 September 2022.
Paschal Donohoe and Michael McGrath have managed a careful balancing act, but the capacity issues that have caused problems in many sectors remain
Like the last two budgets, this one was a response to a crisis. Instead of the pandemic, however, it sought to address a cost of living crisis created largely externally.
Introducing significant fiscal initiatives can be tricky, as the UK government has learned in recent days. This Irish budget, however, has a good chance of keeping the national finances stable while improving the lot of most citizens.
Paschal Donohoe, the Finance Minister, and Michael McGrath, the Public Expenditure Minister, avoided three potential pitfalls.
First of all, the measures they announced should not disrupt the existing tax base. Finance ministers, like doctors, should above all else do no harm. The exchequer is funded primarily by corporate activity, consumer activity and the income tax paid by higher earners.
None of the tax measures should disrupt any of these three key sources. In common with individuals, businesses are receiving assistance with spiralling energy costs. While we are often reminded that 50 per cent of the corporation tax yield comes from just 10 companies, it remains the case that 50 per cent of the corporation tax yield comes from the rest of the profitable companies operating in this country. Many of these smaller firms will be a direct beneficiary of the 40 per cent energy cost rebate scheme.
The sizeable grants and social welfare payments will go towards sustaining people’s purchasing power and therefore help sustain Vat receipts. Higher energy costs also result in higher Vat yields. When petrol prices jumped from €1.40 per litre to around €1.90 per litre, for example, the government’s share rose by €0.11.
The increase in the 20 per cent rate band will directly benefit approximately 1 million taxpayers who will see a greater portion of their income taxed at 20 per cent rather than 40 per cent. This is not so much a relieving measure as a preservation of the status quo, because incomes are also increasing in response to inflationary pressures. The change in the rate band should be seen as preserving and securing the high proportion of income tax paid by higher earners, rather than giving anybody a tax break.
Secondly, the government has avoided borrowing for its tax and welfare measures. That’s a good call given that euro interest rates are on the increase, but it is also an important signal to potential investors in this country that the national finances are stable. Avoiding borrowing has only been possible thanks to an exceptional corporation tax yield, but as most of the tax bounce seems to have been diverted to one off measures, applying the budget surplus in this manner is a good use of available funds. Many finance ministers across the world would be envious of the Irish surplus available coming into this budget.
Thirdly, while some of the additional welfare payments such as the increase in pensions and unemployed benefit will be permanent fixtures, the ratio of enhanced long-term welfare payments to once of reliefs seems to me to be about right. The gamble here is that the inflationary surge – and in particular the energy costs surge – will be short lived. There is of course no guarantee when, or even if, the pressures will abate and not all prices will ever revert to their pre-2022 levels.
The mistake that may have been made in the budget is that much of the budgetary emphasis has been on an ability to purchase rather than on an ability to supply. A lack of capacity is a huge problem in our economy.
It is encouraging to see an increase in the number of doctor only medical cards, for example, but it will increase the pressure on GPs. It should be a matter of national pride that our third level system is so accessible and after today even more affordable, but are we investing enough in our universities and colleges? It is also excellent to provide €500 in an annual tax credit for hard-pressed renters, but is the €6.2 billion of funding promised to the Department of Housing, Local Government and Heritage going to improve the supply of accommodation quickly enough?
Overall, the government has done a good job. If capacity issues in the economy are addressed with the additional spending, it could even be an exceptional job.
Dr Brian Keegan is Director of Public Policy at Chartered Accountants Ireland
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