With recent reports emerging that up to 7,000 trucks carrying goods from the UK to the EU could face two-day delays in Dover after the Brexit transition, the UK government have published their reasonable worst case scenario planning assumptions for potential disruption to UK freight* travelling to the EU at the end of the Brexit transition period.

In a statement addressing the House of Commons, UK Cabinet Office Minister Michael Gove has said that the document has been made available to “illustrate the costs of a lack of preparedness while there is still plenty of time to prepare”.

The document says that the planning assumption is that EU Member States will impose EU third country customs controls on UK goods at the end of the transition period. This will mean that all freight that travels to the border without the correct documentation will be stopped before boarding services in the UK or on arrival at Member State ports. This in turn will lead to delays, a strain on resources, and higher costs for hauliers and freight forwarders, which is one of the most significant worries for the logistics sector at the moment. There are also reports of both Irish and UK haulier groups being concerned about the potential increase in prices of goods due to post-Brexit delays.

The document predicts that only 30–60 percent trucks would arrive at the border with the necessary formalities completed for the goods on board. The document also highlights a worrying estimate where only 50–70 percent of large businesses, and just 20–40 percent of SMEs, would be ready for the new EU requirements that will come into effect starting 1 January 2021.

*refers to goods transported in bulk by truck, train, ship, or aircraft