Brexit Bulletin - 01 April 2019

Apr 01, 2019

The UK was due to leave the EU last Friday, but instead MPs voted on the EU Withdrawal Agreement for a third time. That vote failed and today sees another round of voting in the House of Commons to see if the UK can get some consensus on a way forward before 12 April. Also last week the ESRI warned that a disorderly Brexit could cost Irish jobs and it forecasts that the economic shock of Brexit will impact Irish households, businesses, jobs and government finances.

An attempt to agree

UK MPs began the process of seeking agreement on an alternative to Theresa May’s withdrawal agreement last week but none of the eight options proposed got a majority support. UK MPs will carry out another round of voting in the House of Commons today to see if they can establish some consensus on a way forward on Brexit.  The votes come amid increasing speculation that Theresa May will bring the withdrawal agreement back for a fourth vote this week.

UK MPs voted by 344 to 286 against the deal on the third attempt which means that Theresa May has until 12 April to go back to the EU with new proposals and seek a longer extension to the negotiation process.  Otherwise the UK could leave without a deal.

MPs began the process of seeking consensus on Brexit last week, but not one of eight alternative options garnered majority support. The closes support came for the UK staying within the customs union with the EU – this vote only failed by six votes. Today it is expected MPs will vote on a narrower range of options in the hope that they can agree on one potential plan. Not likely to be an easy task.

The voting comes amid rumours of a snap election being called in the UK.

In response to Friday’s failed vote on the withdrawal bill, EU leaders will meet for an emergency summit on 10 April where they will discuss the possibility of granting an extension to the UK should it request one.

Impact of Brexit on the Irish economy

Last week the Economic and Social Research Institute (ESRI) published a report on the impact of Brexit on the Irish economy under a range of scenarios. The report says that the economic impact of Brexit on Ireland will be considerable in either a deal or no-deal scenario with the level of Irish GDP in the long run being 2.6 percent,  4.8 percent or 5.0 percent below where it otherwise would be if Brexit had not happened. It also says the economic shock of Brexit will negatively impact Irish households, businesses, jobs and government finances.