HMRC has published the 2025 edition of the Tax Gap for 2023/24, the difference between the estimated amount of theoretical tax that should have been paid to HMRC and the amount that has actually been paid. According to the publication, this fell in real terms to 5.3 percent despite the cash figure of £46.8 billion being at a record high and comparing unfavourably to £46.4 billion in 2022/23. The key trends are that there is a continuing fall in the VAT gap, upward trends in both the small businesses tax gap and corporation tax, however avoidance is showing a small reduction the reasons for which are not clear. The information published represents the best estimate of the Tax Gap at the time of publication and is subject to revision by HMRC if more data becomes available.
Since HMRC began to publish this information in 2005/06, the Tax Gap had fallen from 7.4 percent to 5.1 percent in 2017/18 but was broadly stable at circa 5.5 percent in more recent years. In the report’s introduction, HMRC compares the movement in percentage terms for each category of tax from the first year of reporting to 2023/24. The only tax head to show an increase is corporation tax which increased from 11.4 percent in 2005/06 to 15.8 percent in 2023/24; all other tax heads have reduced.
The Tax Gap for small businesses remains the largest component by taxpayer group with a 60 percent share in 2023/24. The VAT gap has reduced from 13.8 percent of the theoretical VAT liability in 2005/06 (£11.6 billion) to 5.0 percent in 2023/24 (£8.9 billion). However, although the trend has been one of gradual decline, this has been more erratic in recent years which does not make sense in the context of Making Tax Digital for VAT being fully implemented from 1 April 2022.
Avoidance has been revised down in the period 2019/20 to 2022/23 from 0.2 percent to 0.1 percent and according to the report was at an estimated record low in 2023/24 though the reasons for this are not clear and could be because some aspects have been reclassified to other behaviour categories.
In its accompanying press release on the 2023/24 figures, the Government overtly references its objective of raising an additional £7.5 billion via measures announced in the 2024 Autumn Budget and Spring Statement to close the tax gap.
The following publications and news releases all relate to the 2025 Tax Gap edition:
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