The stumbling blocks to EU enlargement

The EU Commission’s new enlargement package sets out ambitious plans for expansion but the rule of law and defence must govern any future accession negotiations, writes Judy Dempsey

It was reminiscent of 1 May 2004, when the countries of Central and Eastern Europe joined the European Union (EU). 

For their citizens, that day almost 20 years ago was not just a euphoric occasion, it was about returning to Europe – an aspiration that must have seemed remote while they were under the communist yoke from 1945 to 1989.

Now, the opportunity for Ukraine and Moldova to join the EU is very real, following Ursula von der Leyen’s decision to unveil an ambitious enlargement package last month.

The President of the European Commission announced on 8 November that the EU would open accession negotiations with Ukraine, Moldova and Bosnia and Herzegovina, while also granting Georgia candidate country status. 

It will take several years for these countries to join the EU. Leaving aside how the war in Ukraine might end, significant issues will need to be addressed in all four: corruption, the role of the oligarchs, human trafficking and the weak independence of the judiciary, for example. 

EU leaders will have to give von der Leyen’s plan the green light during their December summit. 

Some will baulk at how Bosnia and Herzegovina will be able to begin accession talks despite ongoing misrule and ethnic tensions among leaders of the Serb community. Backed by Russia and its neighbour Serbia, it has long sought to have its own autonomous region.

Yet, for all these problems, this next enlargement should be a chance for the EU to tackle two big issues that undermine the union’s credibility. 

The first is how several countries, led by Hungary and Poland, have blatantly flouted the rule of law. For several years, Budapest and Warsaw have run roughshod over the judiciary, the media and the appointment of chief prosecutors. 

Hungary’s Prime Minister Viktor Orbán has misappropriated EU funds in addition to promoting his own appointees loyal to the governing Fidesz party, to universities and other educational institutions. 

And this is just the tip of the iceberg.

In Poland, the judiciary, media, education and private sectors have been subject to interference from the governing conservative/nationalist party. 

The Law and Justice party lost the recent parliamentary elections, however, so there is a chance that the centrist Civic Coalition party may put the country back on the path of the rule of law.  

This is important for countries trying to make their way into the union. 

Imagine sitting in Kyiv and seeing judges intimidated or sacked in an EU member state because they don’t toe the governing party line? 

Civil society activists in Ukraine and Moldova have been campaigning for many years to root out corruption and establish a transparent court and judicial system free of state interference, lobbies and oligarchs.

The second issue facing the EU is how, as a bloc, it cannot defend itself. 

With the current instability along Europe’s eastern borders and its southern neighbourhood, the EU lacks the capacity to defend its citizens and provide them with the security they need and which, until now, had been provided by the NATO alliance. 

Soft power takes precedence over any kind of hard power despite what is happening in Ukraine.

These two issues – the rule of law and defence – are about the credibility of the EU and making the bloc ready for the next round of enlargement. 

Judy Dempsey is a Non-Resident Senior Fellow at Carnegie Europe and Editor-in-Chief of Strategic Europe