It may be the time for some spring cleaning, however last week’s Spring Forecast was little more than a light dusting when the Chancellor set out in her speech to the House of Commons details of the latest economic and fiscal forecasts by the Office for Budget Responsibility (OBR). Just days after conflict erupted again in the Middle East, one could be forgiven for arguing that the forecasts are already out of date, albeit the OBR did recognise in its forecasts that significant risks from the conflict could impact the UK economy. Nevertheless, last week the Chancellor kept to her pledge that there would be no tax or policy announcements on the day of the forecast. However, in her speech the Chancellor highlighted that her second Mais lecture, which is expected to take place next week, will set out three major choices ‘that will determine the course of our economy into the future’. The Institute reacted to the Spring Forecast in a Press Release which overall calls on the UK Government to address the tax barriers that are hampering business growth in the UK.
After the fiasco in November when the OBR’s economic and fiscal outlook was leaked before the Chancellor’s Autumn 2025 Budget speech, HM Treasury (HMT) was taking no chances that this would happen again when they published the OBR’s forecasts first on GOV.UK. This may mean a permanent move for future fiscal events by HMT to publish the OBR’s forecasts on GOV.UK.
The Institute for Fiscal Studies and Institute for Government have both published their responses to the Spring Forecast. Meanwhile, the Treasury Committee has opened an inquiry into the Spring Forecast, with the Chancellor scheduled to provide oral evidence later this week.
In other fiscal events news, the House of Commons Library has published an updated research briefing on the Budget and the annual Finance Bill. The briefing examines the way that Parliament scrutinises the Government’s proposals for taxation set out in the annual Budget statement. A research briefing has also been published by the Library on the Spring Forecast.
On the devolved nations front, last week the Scottish Government published the Scottish Budget which sets out its proposed spending and tax plans for 2026/27 as presented to Holyrood.
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