The Minister for Finance, Michael McGrath TD, and the Minister for Public Expenditure, National Development Plan Delivery and Reform, Paschal Donohoe TD have published the Government’s Stability Programme Update for 2024. This document sets out macroeconomic and fiscal forecasts for the periods 2024-2025 and 2023-2027 respectively.
Modified Domestic Demand (MDD) is projected to grow by 1.9 percent this year and by 2.3 percent in 2025. The projected rate of inflation is 2.1 percent as a result of declining global energy prices. A government surplus of €8.6 billion is anticipated, though an underlying deficit would be in prospect in the absence of ‘windfall’ corporation tax receipts.
Commenting on the figures, Minister McGrath said:
“Available evidence suggests the economy is in reasonably good shape, at least in aggregate terms. Looking ahead, some of the headwinds that have dominated over the past year are set to ease as the year progresses and this should support a pick-up in economic activity.
The brightest economic spot is undoubtedly the labour market, which has remained resilient throughout the period of high inflation and rising interest rates. There are now over 2.7 million people in employment. To put this in context, three-quarters of our working age population are in work, a near record level.
Crucially, the energy price shock is dissipating and the disinflation process is now well advanced, with headline inflation expected to average just over 2 per cent this year – consistent with price stability. Against this backdrop, consumer spending is expected to pick-up over the course of the year as lower energy prices and the associated easing in inflation support an improvement in real wages and household purchasing power.
MDD growth is expected to average 1.9 per cent for this year as a whole - a modest downward revision of 0.3 percentage points from the autumn forecast. As economic conditions improve over the course of this year, MDD growth is set to accelerate to 2.3 per cent next year.”
On the public finances, Minister McGrath said:
“On the fiscal side, we are projecting a headline surplus of €8.6 billion for this year, the equivalent of 2.8 per cent of national income. This is based on the assumption of tax revenue amounting to almost €92.1 billion, a growth rate of 4.6 per cent. However, I would caution that this surplus is heavily dependent on volatile ‘windfall’ corporate tax receipts which have grown from €4 billion to €24 billion in the space of a decade. When the windfall element of these receipts – estimated at around €11 billion, or almost half the projected corporation tax yield this year – is excluded, there is an underlying deficit in our public finances.
These receipts cannot be relied upon: we saw a marked slowdown in corporation tax over the course of last year, highlighting the volatility of this revenue stream. We can say with reasonable confidence at this point that the era of corporation tax over-performance is coming to an end.
That is why this Government has decided to establish the two new long-term investment vehicles – the Future Ireland Fund and the Infrastructure, Climate and Nature Fund. The objective is to invest windfall receipts to help prepare for future known fiscal challenges. The legislation establishing the Funds is currently progressing through the Oireachtas.
The SPU projections published today reflect the resilience of our economy and Government’s commitment to continuing to invest in our public services and the productive capacity of our economy. However, it continues to be important that we highlight the vulnerabilities that remain just below the surface: it is essential that fiscal policy is framed in a manner that is careful, balanced and sustainable.
The publication of the SPU today is an important milestone in the process of preparing Budget 2025. I now look forward to the National Economic Dialogue next month and then to the preparation of the Summer Economic Statement (SES) before the summer recess. The SES will involve making important decisions concerning the parameters of Budget 2025."
LOADING...