Parliamentary Budget Office publication on forecasting corporation tax revenues issued

The Parliamentary Budget Office (PBO) has published an analytical note on forecasting corporation tax revenues in Ireland reviewing historic forecasting performance and recent trends. The review finds that the Official Gross Operating Surplus‑based One‑Year‑Ahead Corporation Tax forecasts have underestimated revenue for fourteen consecutive years.

The note outlines that tax revenue forecasts play an important role in fiscal planning and resource allocation but also emphasises that international experience indicates that corporation tax receipts remain the most challenging category to forecast accurately.

The note highlights that global consolidated accounting information, used alongside existing methods, can potentially serve as a complementary forecasting signal.