Joe Biden’s withdrawal from the US presidential race marked the departure of the last “Atlanticist” in American politics and Europe is ill-prepared for what lies ahead, writes Judy Dempsey 

The decision by Joe Biden not to run against Donald Trump has upturned American politics. There are so many uncertainties about who will be elected as the next president of the United States on 5 November. 

Until then, America will be preoccupied with domestic politics. It’s going to demand huge effort by the departments of state and defence to keep the focus on Ukraine, Israel and what is happening in the Middle East, not to mention China.  

With the exception of Ukraine, Europe is a bystander, but Biden’s decision could change the transatlantic relationship. 

Few European leaders, apart from French President Emmanuel Macron, understand how this fundamental shift in transatlantic dynamics could affect Europe’s defence, security and intelligence gathering. 

Biden is the last “Atlanticist.” His career, experience in foreign policy and age made him a believer in the enduring bonds between the United States and Europe. Yes, his administration complained about Europeans not taking their defence or security seriously, but intellectually and emotionally, he is an Atlanticist. 

Donald Trump cares little about Europe, the EU, NATO, or the idea of “the West”. Even if Europe increased its share of defence spending to NATO, it would never be enough. For Trump, Europeans are free-riders and unable collectively to think and act defensively. For him, this is Europe’s problem, not America’s. Just as Ukraine is not America’s problem either.

If a Democrat wins the US presidential election, they will likely belong to the younger generation whose past has no connection with Europe and which is more attuned to the emerging competition between the United States and China, Russia and other countries resentful of America and what it represents. 

This shift also has major implications for Europe’s security, its economy and future developments in Ukraine. Yet, Europe is not prepared for the changes taking place across the Atlantic. 

The post-1945 era that was built on multilateral institutions, arms control and a confident West is ending, so what can Europe do to deal with such irreversible change? 

EU Commission President Ursula von der Leyen wants Europe to have a Defense Tsar and a collective defense-spending policy. Neither is likely to fly – and not just because neutral countries would not buy into them. 

Germany has rejected proposals to finance new defence purchases through joint borrowing, arguing that there is already enough industrial and research funding for defence. 

On top of this, because defence is such a national issue, it is hard to see member states ceding any of this sovereignty to Brussels.

The real issue here is Europe. The 27 member states can’t agree on which direction the union should take. More political and economic integration would make sense, but several countries want to regain more sovereignty at the expense of making Europe capable of speaking with one voice.  

As the United States and the West decline, there is a chance for Europe to step in. Unfortunately, member states and EU leaders lack the courage to do what is needed.