The State pension: one piece in a complex puzzle

Drawing on research and global experience, Munro O’Dwyer explains why the creation of a sustainable State pension system is a knotty – but not insurmountable – challenge.

The Pensions Commission was established in November 2020 to “examine sustainability and eligibility issues… and outline options for the Government to address issues including qualifying age, contribution rates, total contributions and eligibility requirements”. One of the terms of reference was to examine how private sector employment contracts specifying retirement ages below the State pension age may impact on the State’s finances and pension system.

While the report is yet to be published, it is of interest to look at the retirement ages and policies of other countries to put Ireland’s approach into context.

Many countries have adopted policies that seek to tap into the social and economic benefits of longer working lives. The United States abolished mandatory retirement in 1986 while, with some exceptions, New Zealand followed in 1999 and Australia in 2004. The UK followed suit in 2011, although a compulsory retirement age remains. This can apply if a job requires certain physical abilities or has an age limit set by law.

The PwC Golden Age Index helps to explain the rationale for these policies. The Index is a weighted average of seven indicators, which reflect the labour market impact of workers aged over 55 in OECD countries, including employment, earnings, and training. The most recent report identifies that the OECD could achieve a $3.5 trillion boost to GDP in the long-term if countries raise the employment rates of those aged over 55 to match New Zealand levels (with New Zealand having the greatest level of employment market participation across older workers). For Ireland, the potential gain was estimated to be around 9% of GDP, or roughly €25 billion.

The Index identified key drivers of employment for older workers – successful policy measures include increasing the retirement age, supporting flexible working, improving the flexibility of pensions, and further training and support for older workers to become ‘digital adopters’.

So, what influences the age to which we work?

Many factors influence workforce participation at older ages, from marital status to gender participation gaps and public expenditure on family benefits, among others. It is interesting to step through a few of the factors in more detail in the context of the debate in Ireland.

It is reasonably intuitive that life expectancy generally has a positive impact on employment patterns for older workers as the longer people are expected to live, the more likely they are to spend more of their life working. Life expectancy also captures other factors that may influence the employment rate for older workers – the level of health, for example, which could be impacted by healthcare policies, medical advances, and technological developments. Repeated studies have shown that health influences the age at which a worker retires.

Greater expenditure on pensions is expected to reduce the incentive for older workers to participate in work, as increases in State pension wealth are associated with a lower retirement age. Interestingly, studies across several countries on the effect of general employment protection laws and age discrimination laws have been mixed. Some studies argue that these laws negatively affect employment among older workers, as employers see older workers as a greater burden if they have greater protection, even though the intended effect is to help improve employment prospects for older workers. This highlights the complexity involved in setting retirement ages and supporting older workers to participate in the workforce.

What burden will fall on younger generations?

Much has been written about the potential for significant changes in Ireland’s demographics, with the dependency ratio (the number of persons in employment relative to those in receipt of pension benefits) projected to fall over the coming decades. This will potentially create strains around the financing of the system into the future and may create a perceived intergenerational inequity. The Pensions Commission is tasked with identifying measures to review the projected changes in demographics, earnings, and the labour market, and the associated costs of these changes.

Aside from potential pension financing cost arguments, will longer working lives limit opportunities for younger workers? The argument is often made that the amount of work in an economy is fixed, so one more job for an older person means one less job for a younger person (the ‘lump of labour’ theory). Research has repeatedly shown that this theory is not observable in practice, and instead identifies that the number of jobs in an economy is elastic – labour markets are dynamic, and economies adapt to labour force changes. Simply put, an economy can and will create more employment opportunities to reflect extra participants entering the labour force.

Policies enforcing mandatory retirement ages do not help create jobs for younger members of the workforce. In fact, they reduce the ability of older workers to contribute – both directly and in terms of the experience they bring.

What other perspectives exist?

In a recent Ibec survey, 67% of respondents believed that abolishing an employer’s right to fix a retirement age would have a negative impact on their business, although 73% of those surveyed also consider retaining staff beyond their fixed retirement age, with most of those surveyed using the option of a post-retirement fixed-term contract. Arguably, these responses are somewhat in conflict with each other, highlighting the complexity of the issues in question.

A key concern of employers is that the current legislative framework presents many difficulties, particularly where an employer seeks to facilitate employee requests to work longer. Similar concerns were identified in terms of employers’ ability to conduct effective workforce planning.

In contrast, the Citizens’ Assembly has called for an end to mandatory retirement ages. Allied to the introduction of pension auto-enrolment, these were seen as the most appropriate means of responding to the challenges created by the State’s ageing population. An Interdepartmental Group on Fuller Working Lives reported that retirement at the age of 65 was impractical given the potential for a gap to emerge between that age and the State pension age.

To the extent that there is common ground, it is arguably around setting the retirement age at a level consistent with the State pension age. This would address the gap that would otherwise emerge for employees leaving the workforce, but who are ineligible for State pension benefits.

What model should Ireland adopt?

Looking at experience globally, the State pension age is simply a single aspect of a complex system. Contribution and coverage levels across the private pension system, mandatory retirement ages, the role of the State in providing social insurance benefits, employment levels more generally – the range of factors goes on and on.

There is greater consensus around what “good” might look like. Where people live longer and healthier lives, the wish is that employees will want to, and will be supported to, remain in the workforce for longer, which in turn enables increases to the State pension age. Increases to the State pension age in turn allow the payment amount to keep pace with the expectations of retirees. This virtuous circle then supports greater sustainability across the social protection system.

The Pension Commission report will offer several proposals for consideration. It is to be hoped that decisions made will set the course for a sustainable pension system that appropriately supports generations of retirees into the future.

Munro O’Dwyer is a Partner at PwC Ireland.