A tough road ahead for Von der Leyen’s second term

EU Commission President Ursula von der Leyen will need to summon all her powers of persuasion if she is to deliver on her second term priority to improve EU competitiveness, writes Judy Dempsey

Ursula von der Leyen is no pushover. During her first term as head of the EU Commission, the bloc’s powerful executive, she has focused on competition, trade, energy, data protection and climate change, stamping her own indelible mark on the job. 

She has been hands-on. Colleagues who have worked with her note her need for control. Delegating has not been von der Leyen’s métier – nor communication, aside from her passionate support for Ukraine. 

Her second term is not going to be easy. Yes, von der Leyen has commissioners on board who are aligned with her own conservative political leaning. Yes, she has a few, very experienced commissioners who served under her first term, if not before. And yes, she has her agenda – competitiveness – as her main focus.

The number of newly appointed commissioners alone shows how determined von der Leyen is to bolster EU competitiveness in response to shifting global demands, including the rise of artificial intelligence. 

Her second term will not be plain sailing, however – for three reasons. 

First, many of her 27 commissioners have overlapping dossiers. This will inevitably lead to turf battles. Continued collegiality is not a given. 

Second, the EU is obsessed with regulation. Its bureaucratic and regulatory processes often stifle innovation, and this will continue to be the case.

Third is the role of EU member states. In recent years, with a few big exceptions, von der Leyen has dealt with countries that prefer to use the EU Council representing member states for their own agenda and interests.

This is bad news for von der Leyen. France, and particularly Germany, have increasingly pushed their national interests before that of Europe. It has always been so, but France and Germany, the historic engine of EU integration, are no longer in sync. 

French President Emmanual Macron – now a beleaguered leader who only recently formed a government after months of stalemate – wields little influence in the EU. 

Macron’s big ideas about making Europe ready to take care of its own security and defence, and his warnings about the need to defend the essential values that make Europe what is today, have had so little traction.

This is no thanks to Germany, where Chancellor Olaf Scholz has failed to engage intellectually with either France or the EU. 

Scholz’s policies on immigration (border controls on Schengen countries), more monetary integration (blocking a banking union) and more political integration (blocking treaty change to get rid of some veto powers of the member states), point to a squabbling coalition of Social Democrats, pro-business Free Democrats and Greens, all holding up European integration. 

They also confirm a German leader reluctant to embrace bigger-picture thinking for Europe’s future.

EU member states opposing greater integration can hide behind Berlin. This is why Germany’s political and economic clout used to matter, and for the right reasons. It is different now – to the detriment of the EU and von der Leyen’s goals.

Judy Dempsey is Non-resident Senior Fellow at Carnegie Europe

*Disclaimer: The views expressed in this column published in the October/November 2024 issue of Accountancy Ireland are the author’s own. The views of contributors to Accountancy Ireland may differ from official Institute policies and do not reflect the views of Chartered Accountants Ireland, its Council, its committees, or the editor.