Can the EU reform for the future?

It is hard to see how the EU can become a major global player without embracing the reform that would lead to greater integration, says Judy Dempsey

The European Union is not in good shape. 

There is no agreement over migration or refugees, two issues raised more than two decades ago. The longer member states delay reforming the entire migration and asylum system, the greater the opportunity for anti-immigration and xenophobic parties to capitalise on these delays. 

Current trends show that support for the far-right in France, Germany and Poland is increasing in the polls. Instead of co-opting some far-right policies, mainstream parties across Europe need to confront their rising prominence sooner rather than later. 

Then there is the unending dispute over how to tackle climate change. This is linked to a radical overhaul of the energy infrastructure across the EU. 

Germany and France are at loggerheads about the future of nuclear energy. Germany’s Green coalition party wants to end nuclear energy once and for all, while Berlin has plans to subsidise industry, both of which will delay the country’s transition to renewable energy. 

France wants to expand nuclear power for environmental reasons, and Poland is grappling with its coal industry. 

Other countries are making the costly and challenging transition to renewable energy sources.

This is just the tip of the iceberg. 

Eurozone countries cannot agree on further integration of the capital markets and banking system to deepen economic integration. 

Take a look at the conflict between the EU Commission and Poland, Hungary and Slovakia. In September, these countries banned Ukrainian grain imports to Europe, going against the European Commission’s authority over trade matters. 

As a result, it appears that Member States now hold more power than the commission itself. 

It is difficult to see how the EU can become a major global player without embracing the reform that would lead to greater integration – or, at the very least, a bloc that will be more manageable when it expands to incorporate Moldova, Ukraine and the Western Balkans.

Enlargement, Russia’s war against Ukraine, the uncertainty of the transatlantic relationship, the results of the 2024 US presidential election, and the rising power of China are all issues that affect Europe’s future. 

A new Franco-German paper, put together by a working group of experts and released on 19 September, proposes ideas for making the EU more manageable and governable against a backdrop of pessimism.

Based on the premise that there is no agreement on changing the EU treaty – which requires unanimity and, in most cases, a vote from the national parliaments (remember the Nice Treaty vote?) – the paper proposes the following:

First, that a coalition of countries move ahead with a “supplementary reform treaty” and, second, that the EU be reorganised around four concentric circles consisting of:

• the inner circle (presumably eurozone countries); 
• the rest of the EU; 
• associate members (Ukraine, Moldova and the Western Balkans); and 
• the European Political Community (a loose association of European leaders that meet regularly).

Given the current state of the Franco-German relationship and its impact on EU integration, it seems unlikely that this paper will be accepted. 

Additionally, there are concerns about the democratic legitimacy of the EU and the accountability of its institutions. While the EU parliament has gained some influence, many citizens feel disconnected from the process. 

In the face of continued uncertainty, now is the time for smaller and medium-sized countries to propose their plans for the future functioning and sustainability of the EU.