Shifting ideologies signal trouble ahead
Aug 08, 2022
The increasing polarisation of American politics and recent Supreme Court decisions suggest the onset of a new age of conservatism, and Europeans should be worried as the centre fast erodes. Judy Dempsey explains why
First came the US Supreme Court decision to overturn Roe v Wade, the ruling that declared abortion a constitutional right in 1973.
Then came its decision to limit the authority of the Environmental Protection Agency to set standards on climate-changing greenhouse gas emissions for existing power plants—it is up to Congress to set the norms, the Supreme Court concluded.
Both of these decisions—evidence of the increasing polarisation of American politics—will feed into the agendas of politicians standing in the mid-term elections in November.
Pro-life supporters will be encouraged by the statements of Supreme Court judges who mentioned banning contraception. Climate change opponents will push the ‘denial button’, despite the evidence to the contrary.
And the polarisation of American politics is only set to deepen as the centre fast erodes.
President Joe Biden, saddled with rising inflation, the war in Ukraine, and working out how best to deal with Russia and China, does not have the executive powers to overturn these Supreme Court rulings.
So, what does this all mean for Europe, America’s main ally? Europeans seem perplexed and inured to what is happening in the United States, a country that played such a pivotal role in getting Europe back on its feet after the Second World War ended in 1945.
Washington actively supported the creation of today’s European Union and, for over seven decades, the US has provided a security umbrella to Europe.
The era of shared values and commitment to democracy and security is waning, however. The trends emerging in the United State—polarisation, isolationism, and an increasingly dysfunctional political system—should worry Europeans.
For one thing, the conservative swing in the US could encourage the mobilisation of populists and their leaders in Europe, who believe the European Union is becoming too liberal and too obsessed with imposing its values on citizens.
One example is the Polish government, which has made systematic moves to control the appointment of judges as well as banning abortion. A right-wing win in 2022 could embolden Warsaw to take further steps to curb women’s rights or put a chokehold on judicial powers.
In Hungary, Prime Minister Viktor Orban has clamped down on the courts, the media and non-governmental organisations. Orban is hoping for the return of a Republican administration in the US in 2024, urging them to take the same steps against the media as he has.
In France, Marine Le Pen’s National Rally now dominates the far right in the French National Assembly.
Then there is the state of democracy across Europe. According to the Economist Intelligence Unit, Europe (alongside North America) is host to the worst-performing democracies since 2006.
These trends are bad news for pro-democracy activists in authoritarian countries. They look to the United States and Europe as models of tolerance, integration, prosperity, and hope.
In a nutshell—though not as drastic as what is happening in the United States— the centre and culture of consensus in Europe is weakening.
Without a centre that fosters listening, tolerance, dialogue, and leadership, from top to bottom and vice versa, democratic structures will become degraded.
China and Russia could only capitalise on a decline that would weaken the influence of the West.
The question is: are European leaders heeding the warnings?
Judy Dempsey is a Non-Resident Senior Fellow at Carnegie Europe and Editor-in-Chief of Strategic Europe