What Russia’s invasion of Ukraine means for neutrality in Europe

The war in Ukraine will profoundly impact the defensive stance of the EU’s neutral countries.

Russian President Vladimir Putin’s decision to invade Ukraine is changing Europe in ways the Kremlin did not build into its calculations when it sought to conquer its western neighbour. 

NATO, the EU and the United States are united in their agreement over an unprecedented, punitive package of sanctions against Russia. 

Individual NATO members are sending lethal weapons to Ukraine. NATO, which has boosted its defences in Poland, the Baltic States and Romania, has ruled out a no-fly zone over Ukraine. It fears retaliation from Putin, even the threat of a nuclear strike.

Meanwhile, Europe has opened its doors to refugees. No more squabbling over who to admit or how many numbers will flow into each country compared to 2015, when former German Chancellor Angela Merkel gave shelter to over one million Syrian refugees fleeing the war.

Germany has thrown away its ‘rule book’. The belief that wandel durch handel (change through trade) would bring Russia closer to Europe is over. 

Social Democrat Chancellor Olaf Scholz has reached a Zeitenwende — a turning point — not only regarding Russia, but domestically as well. German defence spending has risen to two percent of gross domestic product, equivalent to about €100 billion a year. The anti-American and pacifist wings in Scholz’s party are also toeing the new line — for now.

As for the EU, its foreign policy chief, Josip Borrell, said the bloc would send weapons to Ukraine. What a turnaround for a soft power organisation built on a peace project. This may see the EU transition from a soft power provider to a hard power player as it now urgently reassesses its security and defence stance. 

This is where the neutral countries of Ireland, Finland, Sweden, Austria and Malta face challenging debates and decisions.

All have signed up to the EU’s Common Security and Defence Policy. With the exception of Denmark and Malta, they are participants in the EU’s Permanent Structured Cooperation (PESCO), aimed at increasing defence cooperation among the member states. They benefit from the decades-long US policy of guaranteeing the security umbrella for its NATO allies in Europe. Somehow, the neutral countries are having their cake and eating it too, but for how much longer?

Russia’s attack on Ukraine changes everything about the future role of Europe’s security and defence policy. This was confirmed during the informal summit of EU leaders in Versailles in March. Europe has to take defence seriously. 

Neutral Finland and Sweden already cooperate very closely with NATO. Russia’s invasion is leading to intense debates about whether both should now join the organisation. 

As for Ireland? The war in Ukraine is linked to the security of all of Europe, forcing neutral countries to confront the reasons for their continued neutrality. 

Maintaining neutrality at a time when Europe’s security architecture and the post-Cold War era is being threatened is no longer a luxury monopolised by pacifists, or those who link neutrality to sovereignty. It is about providing security to Europe’s citizens and how to do it collectively. 

Taoiseach Micheál Martin has said discussions about military neutrality are for another day. Neutrality, he said, “is not in any shape or form hindering what needs to be done and what has to be done in respect of Ukraine”. 

Neale Richmond, Fine Gael TD, has described the neutrality policy as “morally degenerate,” calling for a “long-overdue, serious and realistic conversation” about it. 
Tánaiste Leo Varadkar has attempted to straddle both sides here. “This does require us to think about our security policy,” he has said. “I don’t see us applying to join NATO, but I do see us getting more involved in European defence.”

Martin did later concede: “The order has been turned upside down by President Putin.” Neutral Ireland – and the rest of the EU – now must draw the consequences.