The Minister for Finance, Michael McGrath TD, has published an analysis by his department entitled Future-proofing the Public Finances – the Next Steps. A key recommendation in the analysis is the establishment of a long-term public savings vehicle to ensure that windfall corporation tax receipts are not used to fund permanent expenditure increases or tax reductions. Secondly, such a fund could contribute to meeting budgetary pressures in the future.
The report also notes that, under almost all of scenarios simulated, the drawdowns from such a long-term public savings vehicle would still not be sufficient to cover the full increase in ageing-related costs expected by 2030. Therefore further reforms to the pension system – including increases to the rate of PRSI – will be required.
Commenting on the scoping paper, Minister McGrath said:
“The analysis published by my department today highlights some of the vulnerabilities the public finances face from both revenue and expenditure perspectives.
On the revenue side, while the headline budgetary accounts look to be in very good shape, this is largely the result of corporation tax receipts, which have increased more than five-fold in the past decade. My department estimates that around half of these receipts could be potentially transitory in nature.
Looking ahead, Government is also aware of the major expenditure challenges on the horizon. Shifting demographics and adapting to the climate and digital transitions will impose large costs on the public finances.
While the Irish demographic picture is currently favourable, developments in the coming decades will mean that we will be spending significantly more just to maintain the current level of service, all because of an ageing population.
The paper my department published today outlines some of the options available to Government to help to mitigate against these risks to the public finances. Taking into account this analysis, it is my intention to bring forward proposals for a long-term savings vehicle which will be used to pre-fund part of the future costs of structural change.
The paper also discusses different approaches to using the windfall receipts including for a new long-term savings vehicle, and using a portion to pay down debt and for additional, targeted capital investment. I was pleased to brief cabinet on this paper yesterday. Subject to government approval, setting up such a long-term savings vehicle will require primary legislation.”
Further information is available on gov.ie.
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