Extended ROS pay and file deadline impacts November Exchequer receipts

Income tax receipts for November are down just over €1 billion year-on-year. This is primarily driven by the deferral of the ROS pay and file deadline to December, while PAYE receipts hold up “remarkably well”.  An Exchequer deficit of €8.9 billion has been recorded to end-November 2020, representing a €12 billion year-on-year deterioration in the Exchequer balance.

Tax returns in November were down €1.4 billion on the same month last year. Three key factors have impacted on the November position:

1. The extension of the ROS pay and file deadline, as mentioned above, to 10 December. In previous years income tax returns for self-assessed taxpayers were included in November Exchequer results and much of this is now deferred.
2. Revenue returned €430 million to the Exchequer in funds set aside to pay the CRSS.
3. Level 5 restrictions came into effect on 21 October, which has most likely impacted VAT returns, however the full effect of the restrictions will not be seen until January, given the two-month lag in VAT receipts.

While a significant decrease in income tax receipts arose for the month of November, the returns for the month were just 3.6 percent under profile. This is attributed to the resilience of PAYE receipts. Corporation tax receipts for November are down slightly, 2.4 percent, on the same period last year. The cumulative position for corporation tax receipts remains comfortably ahead of last year by €708 million, or 7.1 percent.

Excise duty receipts for November are ahead of that collected in November 2019, by 11 percent. The consistent outperformance of excise receipts in recent months is said to be attributed to the decline in international travel boosting the sale of excisable goods. However, the cumulative position is down 10.2 percent year on year.

VAT receipts for November amounted to €2 billion, a decrease of 9.4 percent on the same month last year. The cumulative position remains steeply down on last year, with an almost 18 percent deterioration.

Full details on the November Exchequer receipts are available on gov.ie.