Is a two-state solution possible?

When and how the war between Israel and Hamas ends, Israelis and Palestinians will have to find a way to live side by side, writes Judy Dempsey

The long-running conflict between Israel and the Palestinians has been one of missed opportunities.

The 1995 Oslo Peace Accords were supposed to usher in a kind of co-existence. That didn’t happen. Israel did not stop withdrawing the illegal settlements in the occupied West Bank. It designated areas for Jewish settlers. 

The Palestinian Authority (PA), bankrolled by the European Union, didn’t use the opportunity to introduce democratic reforms. The former head of the Palestinian Liberation Organisation (PLO) Yasser Arafat could not make the transition from freedom fighter to democrat.  

His successor Abu Mazen has presided over a corrupt PA, refusing to hold elections due back in 2006. He has lost credibility among Palestinians. Mazen did Israel’s bidding: keeping the lid on opposition to the occupation and preventing the establishment of a vibrant civil society that could challenge his authority.  

In Gaza, the Islamic Hamas movement took over the strip in 2007 after ousting the discredited PA. Hamas is the precursor to the Muslim Brotherhood encouraged by Israel in the 1980s as a means to divide and weaken the PLO. Since 2007, Hamas has run Gaza with an iron fist. It has its own agenda: to not recognise the state of Israel, even to destroy it. 

Fast forward to 7 October and Israel’s devastating response to the gruesome Hamas massacre of Israeli civilians. This will make it more difficult than ever to change a mindset on both sides concerning the need to end the cycle of violence and resume peace talks.  

Gaza is in ruins. Suffering people have nowhere to go. At least 20,000 have been killed. There is no systematic flow of humanitarian aid. Hamas shows no signs of negotiating over Israeli hostages. 

As for Israel, its right-wing Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu – who never believed in a two-state solution and who is (conveniently) beholden to his far-right-wing coalition partners – believes he can destroy Hamas.  

This ignores the day after for the hapless, suffering citizens of Gaza and for Israelis who have been shocked by the failures of their military and intelligence services.   

The day after is difficult to think about. The United States and the European Union still support a two-state solution but how might it be achieved? A few ideas: 

Benjamin Netanyahu needs to be replaced with a moderate leader.
  
Abu Mazen and the PA need to be replaced by younger people who want democratic change. 

A two-state solution is impossible unless Jewish settlements in the West Bank are dismantled. They prevent a viable Palestinian state. 
Middle Eastern countries must play a central role. They see the wider impact of the Israeli-Hamas conflagration. The Arab countries, and even possibly Iran – a pivotal player in supporting Hezbollah in Lebanon and the Houthi rebels in Yemen – cannot afford a war in the Middle East.  

Egypt and Jordan (which have peace agreements with Israel) and Saudi Arabia (which had considered establishing relations with Israel before 7 October), need to take the diplomatic and political lead in ending the war between Israel and Hamas. 
 
Former US President Donald Trump missed an opportunity when he didn’t link the Abraham Accords – signed in 2020 by the UAE, Bahrain, Morocco and Sudan to normalise relations with Israel – to negotiating a peace deal between Israel and Palestine. 

A two-state solution is unthinkable today. Anger and radicalisation on both sides will demand time and a special mediation to make any sustainable peace possible, but what is the alternative? 

Judy Dempsey is a Non-Resident Senior Fellow at Carnegie Europe and Editor-in-Chief of Strategic Europe. 

*Disclaimer: The views expressed in this column published in the February/March 2024 issue of Accountancy Ireland are the author’s own. The views of contributors to Accountancy Ireland may differ from official Institute policies and do not reflect the views of Chartered Accountants Ireland, its Council, its committees, or the editor.