The global climate summit ‘COP29’ has concluded in the early hours of Sunday morning, 24 November, a good 32 hours after the summit was scheduled to finish in Baku, Azerbaijan.
The gavel descended on the fourth longest COP on record with the agreement ‘The Baku Finance Goal’, a new finance target for tackling climate change. This New Collective Quantified Goal (NCQG) replaces the goal initially agreed in 2009 for developed nations to provide $100 billion annually in climate financing for developing countries.
The final figure of $300 billion a year for climate vulnerable countries has been the subject of much debate, either derided as ‘totally unacceptable and inadequate’ and ‘sleight of hand accounting’, or heralded as an ‘insurance policy for humanity’ and ‘keeping the core principles of the Paris Agreement alive’.
COP summits have long been criticised as ‘talking shops’, seen by many as overly influenced by fossil fuel lobbyists. The summits are characterised by round after round of negotiations between the parties (countries) which have agreed to participate in – and be bound by – the UN treaties to the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change Treaty (UNFCCC). Progress appears incremental – even tortuous at times – when what is required is urgent, sweeping change in the face of existentialist crises.
This was the first COP to have climate finance as the main item on the agenda. The new Baku Finance Goal’ of $300 billion a year is to help developed countries build resilience, prepare for disasters and cut emissions of planet-warming greenhouse gases. However, the new goal falls far short of the $1 trillion that was generally accepted to be the amount needed per year by 2030, rising to $1.3tn by 2035. While a larger overall target of $1.3 trillion per year is posited in the final agreement, most of this is to come from private sources, despite urgent calls from developing countries for it to come from public sources instead.
Speaking from Baku, Ireland’s Environment Minister Eamon Ryan, described the agreement as “far from perfect and it does not go nearly far enough, particularly on mitigation, gender and human rights – but it keeps the core principles of the Paris Agreement alive and it gives us a basis to work from as we move forward to make COP30 in Brazil transformational”. EU climate envoy Wopke Hoekstra said COP29 would be remembered as “the start of a new era for climate finance”. However, UN Climate Change Executive Secretary Simon Stiell warned in his remarks made at the closing of the summit that “like any insurance policy – [the new finance goal] only works – if premiums are paid in full, and on time. Promises must be kept, to protect billions of lives.”
Fossil fuels
A major theme of COP29 was to build on last year’s ‘global stocktake’ commitment in the UAE to transition away from fossil fuels. The parties Baku failed to reach an agreement on this key issue, with the text lacking any explicit mention of the commitment to “transitioning away from fossil fuels”. The parties chose instead to hold over the decision to COP30 next year in Brazil.
Voluntary carbon market
Article 6 of the Paris Agreement had set out how countries can pursue voluntary cooperation to reach their climate targets, but it took a decade of deliberation for countries to finally agree a deal at COP29 to allow carbon trading between nations. The framework allows countries to trade carbon credits with each other, as well as companies and, critically, details an accounting system for how a country selling a credit can deduct that from its national carbon ledger to prevent the same credit from being used twice. Although experts worry that the carbon market rules will not be strong enough to weed out bad offsets, many see the agreement as welcome development, with hopes that the signing off of the rules will create an international carbon trading system for countries to meet their Paris commitments.
What happens next
COP30 will take place in Belém, Brazil. It will focus on efforts by each country to reduce national emissions and adapt to the impacts of climate change (the so-called ‘NDCs’ or ‘nationally determined contributions).
It will also be the last of a so-called ‘troika’ of COPs, which started with COP28 in Dubai in 2023 and progressed through COP28, with its focus on climate finance. The idea behind that troika, agreed on at COP28, is that the three COP presidencies will collaborate on various activities to raise ambition across all pillars of the Paris Agreement on a Roadmap to Mission 1.5°C, ‘from Baku to Belém and beyond’.
In addition to highlighting the importance of protecting the Amazon rainforest for the planet's ecological balance, COP30 has been described by G20 leaders as “our last chance to avoid an irreversible rupture in the climate system”.
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