Europe’s reluctance to leave the comfort zone

Russia’s War in Ukraine changed many assumptions held by European governments, but Judy Dempsey asks is Europe prepared to embrace significant strategic issues that will change the status quo?

Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine in February could radically re-shape the European Union. 

And it’s about time. 

For too long, the EU and most member states were content in the comfort zone that did not have to deal with issues that would fundamentally change their way of doing things. These included energy, security, the future of enlargement and Russia.

Until Russia’s second invasion of Ukraine, there was a tactic consensus that Europe could continue along the path of perceiving Eastern Europe through the prism of Russia and depending on Russian energy.

The EU accepted the independence of Ukraine, Moldova and Georgia, not to mention Belarus. However, among many big member states, their sovereignty and independence were ambiguous. 

While it was never publicly stated, this part of Europe, whose history and culture are unknown to many EU member states, was considered in Russia’s sphere of influence. In several ways, Russia’s all-out attack on Ukraine has changed that perception.

First is the energy issue. It is only a matter of time before Europe will wean itself off Russian gas and oil. This dependence had given President Vladimir Putin immense leverage and blackmail over several EU countries, particularly Germany. 

The EU, and German Chancellor Scholz’s Green coalition partners, say they now want to become independent from Russian energy as soon as possible. Despite the considerable pressure from German industry and its business lobbies tied to Russia, who wish to retain the status quo with Moscow, don’t underestimate this goal. 

The reality is that Russia’s war in Ukraine has become the catalyst for speeding up Europe’s transition to renewable energy and alternative sources of supplies. As dependence on Russian gas decreases, so will the Kremlin’s geopolitical influence.

Another impact of Russia’s aggression is security. Neutral Finland and Sweden are poised to join NATO. These two countries that have long cherished their neutrality now recognise that their security needs to be boosted. Joining NATO would fill a big security vacuum in Northern Europe, where Denmark and Norway are members of the US-led military alliance. The Baltic (NATO member) States will be more than reassured with Finland and Sweden on board.

In short, Putin’s aggression in Ukraine has given NATO and the transatlantic alliance a new lease of life. It is changing the geo-security architecture of Europe. It will be interesting to see how Ireland deals with its long-standing neutrality stance. 

Another big issue is enlargement that is tied to the future direction of Europe. President Emmanuel Macron’s speech at the conclusion of the Future of Europe conference set out how to make the EU more efficient by having a qualified majority voting system for certain policy issues and having a much closer, structural relationship with Eastern Europe. 

But what about making the EU more politically integrated? This would require a treaty change that several member states oppose. However, this is where the war in Ukraine comes into play. European governments cannot retain the status quo when its own security and that of its eastern neighbours are at stake. 

For a union with ambitions to be a global player, muddling through is no longer an option. It’s going to require a major shift in the mindset of EU countries to end Europe’s comfort zone that, until now, didn’t take its – nor Eastern Europe’s – security vulnerability seriously. 

If it doesn’t make that shift, Europe will fail to use the war in Ukraine to develop a strong, integrated and secure Europe – with Eastern Europe as part of that house.