The Parliamentary Budget Office (PBO) has published its Spring Commentary 2024. This latest publication provides analysis on areas such tax forecasts, employment, climate-related spending, as well as the newly proposed EU Governance Economic Framework and what the new rules mean for Ireland.
With tax receipts in the first quarter of 2024 exceeding those from the same period in 2023, overall tax revenue is projected to rise by 4.6 percent compared to 2023. However, forecasted tax receipts for 2024 have been revised downwards by €440 million to €92.1 billion. The downward revision is primarily attributable to lower forecast VAT and capital gains tax, which will be partially offset by expected increases in income tax.
The report also highlights the significant concentration risk in the public finances with 7.7 percent of top earners responsible for 54.1 percent of income tax paid in 2021 and the top ten corporate groups accounting for 56 percent of corporation tax receipts in 2023.
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