Polarised politics in a fragmented world

The foundations for a common polity are eroding as increasingly polarised views and influences continue to flourish, writes Cormac Lucey

It looks like voters in the United States will have to decide between Joe Biden and Donald Trump in November’s presidential election. It is symptomatic of how polarised American politics have become that the strongest argument for voting for Joe Biden is that he isn’t Donald Trump and vice versa. 

Why have politics in the developed world become so opposite? And what is the likely future direction of travel? In my opinion, several secular factors are eroding the political centre and promoting the rise in political extremes. 

Narrowcasting has replaced broadcasting. In the past, TV and radio channels were limited in number and had to cater for a large audience. The result was broadcasting that was jointly watched or listened to by large sections of the community. Today, it is viable to create media and social media offerings that cater for very narrow and specialised audiences. Broadcasting has been replaced by narrowcasting. Sectional views are being promoted. A common, integrated view is being relegated.

Social media algorithms seek to maximise their audiences even if it means promoting a one-sided view of what’s happening. Just look at the US where the difference in political perspectives offered by Fox News and MSNBC is such that, even when covering the same story, they often appear to be reporting on different events. The commercial imperative to maximise audiences means that people are increasingly being told what they want to hear resulting in an echo chamber effect where contrary views are downplayed or ignored. Division is promoted – unity is structurally disadvantaged.

The growth of technology has turbo-charged the division of labour. The essence of the Industrial Revolution is that people ceased to be farmers and moved off the land to earn their living by doing increasingly specialised tasks. While specialisation has promoted greater efficiencies and higher economic growth, it has come with the cost that we now have a reduced understanding of what others do and of how the entire system hangs together. 

Society has become more politically polarised around socio-economic differences. In his book The Road to Somewhere, David Goodhart explained the shock of the Brexit and Trump 2016 votes. He described a UK society that was divided between “Somewheres” and “Anywheres”. 

“Somewheres” are firmly rooted in a specific community and Goodhart reckons that this group constitute about half of the UK population. “Anywheres” are typically socially liberal, well-educated and generally living in cities – they could live and work anywhere (as the pandemic illustrated). 

Goodhart reckons that they comprise just 20 to 25 percent of the population but dominate politics and the media. “Inbetweeners” oscillate between these two groups.

Brexit and Trump represented a shock victory for the “Somewheres” over the “Anywheres”. Recent protests in Ireland against immigration by asylum seekers are probably being carried out by “Somewheres,” angry at the immigration policies of Dublin’s “Anywhere” political establishment.  

In the future, the challenge will be that each of the drivers of political fragmentation listed above seem likely to continue to grow. If the foundations for a common polity are eroding, reaching political agreement is likely to be increasingly difficult in the future.