Originally posted on Business Post 06 March 2022.
In German the term “merkeln” is a somewhat backhanded compliment to the former German chancellor. It means to put off decisions until conditions improve. The EU response to the atrocious Russian invasion of Ukraine is showing that this attitude has had its day.
An extreme development, even within a week of extremes, has been the decisiveness of the EU approach when responding to the Russian invasion. This wasn’t just a triumph over the labyrinthine EU process and bureaucracy. There has been a change in mindset.
The EU is not a defence union, but it has decided to act like one. But then the EU wasn’t a healthcare union either until it was forced to become more organised following the onslaught of Covid-19.
The EU response was disjointed during the early weeks and months of the pandemic because the mechanisms were not there to coordinate healthcare policy across the member countries. Remember the initial approach to vaccine purchases by the bloc?
There has been no such dithering in response to the Ukraine crisis. The latest indication of the newfound appetite for rapid reaction is the use of the Temporary Protection Directive, a process that would give immediate permission for Ukrainians to live and work within the EU and have access to some social welfare benefits. Up to now controlling the freedom of movement of non-EU citizens has been a Brussels totem, unshaken across other humanitarian crises. This directive has existed since 2001, but was never used.
If Covid-19 introduced bigger EU governance, one of the permanent outcomes of the Ukraine war is that future EU influence will extend even further. This is not merely a consequence of improved political decision-making at EU level. Nor can it be fully explained by the historical instincts of the EU Nato members to push back against unacceptable behaviour within the former Soviet bloc.
The theatre of war has changed. Everyone knows that war is now waged with cyber-attacks and with disinformation spread on social media platforms. Conflict in the second decade of this century goes beyond the screens of computer hackers and onto the screens of the financial traders. An army still marches on its stomach and sanctions make those bellies harder to fill.
Announcing sanctions is one thing, but enforcing them is quite another. Governments are reaching deep into their financial services sectors to ensure adherence with the “new normal” approach to Russian commerce. Britain has its own Office of Financial Sanctions Implementation. Ireland does not have a separate such office, but officials have not been slow in setting out the obligations on financial institutions and professionals. Here, the Central Bank is the lead agency for financial sanctions.
The application of new financial sanctions inevitably spurs attempts by the people who are targeted to avoid them. At this point the existing anti money-laundering rules kick in. Money-laundering is a criminal activity to conceal the proceeds of crime, and rules already exist to check out unexplained funds or wealth. The financial affairs of politicians and public officials are also subject to scrutiny as they could be bribed or influenced.
The decisiveness and rigour of government decisions across Europe will have consequences for a long time. Adding to the existing impetus behind the anti money-laundering regulations, new powers to control and regulate data are on the EU agenda.
Similarly, moves to counter climate change at EU level, though slipping on the agenda because of current events, will eventually gain new impetus. They won’t perhaps be driven by the worry of global warming, but by the fear of energy dependence. Though it is the least of our worries just now, businesses operating in the EU will in future be dealing permanently with more scrutiny and regulation over what they deal in and who they deal with.
It is difficult for governments to impose tough sanctions and obligations when these have a severe impact on their own citizens. The price increases at the fuel pumps are an early sign that sanctions cut two ways. This is only the start of a phase of higher prices with some goods and services increasingly in short supply. As they deal with Covid restrictions in their capital cities, the Canadian and New Zealand prime ministers are finding that voters dislike being backed into a corner. Our response to the Ukraine disaster has to be different.
Whatever the outcome of the illegal invasion, and even if the invasion were to end tomorrow, the European political climate has changed. It is not so much that the centre is holding, but that the centre has resolved to take decisions quickly and ensure they are enforced. The way the EU will conduct its affairs in future has been permanently changed, not by Brexit, nor by the EU Council or Commission or Parliament, but by the evil, though natural, action of the coronavirus and the evil and unnatural action of Vladimir Putin.
Dr Brian Keegan is Director of Public Policy at Chartered Accountants Ireland
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