The Minister for Finance, Michael McGrath TD, and the Minister for Public Expenditure, National Development Plan Delivery and Reform, Paschal Donohoe TD published the Government’s Stability Programme Update for 2023. This document sets out macroeconomic and fiscal forecasts for the periods 2023-2030 and 2023-2026 respectively.
Emerging data suggest that the outlook for the global economy in 2023 may not be as pessimistic as forecast last Autumn. However, the global outlook remains fragile, with heightened uncertainty a key feature in the global environment. It is now expected that headline inflation will average 4.9 per cent this year on the back of an easing in energy prices, however non-energy inflation will remain elevated. The labour market has remained remarkably resilient with record numbers in employment and the unemployment rate standing at 4.3 per cent in March.
Commenting on the figures, Minister McGrath said:
“Despite multi-decade high inflation rates and heightened global uncertainty, the Irish economy has proven remarkably resilient, most notably in the labour market where the unemployment rate is at a near-record low. At the same time the mobilisation of government supports helped mitigate, to some extent, the impacts of inflationary pressures on households and businesses over the winter months.
With energy prices in retreat, it now appears as though inflation, absent any further energy price shock, is on a downward trajectory, though it will remain elevated throughout this year. Headline inflation is expected to average 4.9 per cent this year, before returning to 2½ per cent in 2024.”
On the public finances, Minister McGrath said:
“Regarding fiscal developments, we are projecting a surplus of €10 billion for this year, the equivalent of 3.5 per cent of national income. This is based on the assumption of tax revenue amounting to almost €89 billion, a growth rate of almost 7 per cent. While this is, of course, very much welcome, the headline surplus this year is heavily dependent on volatile ‘windfall’ corporate tax receipts. Excluding the impact of these receipts, estimated at almost €12 billion this year, an underlying deficit of €1.8 billion is projected for this year. This is a better metric for assessing the resilience of our public finances.
From a fiscal perspective, serious challenges lie ahead: an ageing population; risks to the sustainability of corporate tax receipts; de-carbonisation and digitalisation; as well as the fallout for economic activity from rising geopolitical tensions. For example, by the end of this decade, it is estimated that additional age-related expenditure of between €7 and €8 billion per annum, relative to the level of outlays at the beginning of the decade, will be required simply to deliver existing levels of public service. Moreover, we are facing into these challenges from a position of high public debt, with the cost of borrowing increasing. That is why I will shortly be presenting proposals for a longer term focused national reserve fund. Work on such a fund is already at an advanced stage.
We are hopefully emerging from the worst of the cost-of-living crisis, though immediate risks remain. However, I am confident that the Irish economy remains resilient especially in light of our robust labour market. The Government will continue to protect those most adversely impacted by cost of living pressures, while managing the public finances in a way that equips the State to address the fiscal challenges in the years ahead.”
Further information is available here.
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