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Public Policy Bulletin, Friday 10 March 2023

Mar 09, 2023

In this week’s public policy bulletin, we take a look at the first economic forecast of 2023 from the Central Bank. We also report on the Government’s announcement this week of a referendum on gender equality. In addition, we examine the latest Government bond sales from the NTMA and the signing into law of a new accountability framework for the financial services sector.

Central bank forecasts lower inflation but reduced rate of growth for domestic economy  

In its latest Quarterly Bulletin published this week, the Central Bank has forecasted that inflation is likely to ease to a rate of 5 percent this year. However, growth of the domestic economy is expected to slow to a rate of 3.1 percent in 2023, reducing again in 2024 to a rate of 2.9 percent according to the bulletin. Noting how “headwinds from higher inflation have tempered the pace of growth”, the Bank also points to “tighter monetary policy” in the Euro area as also affecting overall growth. Separately, the findings suggest the unemployment rate is expected to remain low, averaging at a rate of approximately 4.4 percent out to 2025, with tight labour market conditions continuing. 

Government announces referendum on gender equality

The Government has this week announced its intention to hold a referendum on gender equality as recommended by the Citizens’ Assembly on Gender Equality and the Special Joint Oireachtas Committee on Gender Equality. The referendum will propose amending the Constitution to enshrine the right to gender equality and to remove the current reference to ‘women in the home’. Announcing the plans as part of International Women’s Day earlier this week, the Government’s proposals on specific constitutional amendments are to be published by the end of June, with the referendum due to take place in November.

NTMA raises €1.25 billion in latest bond auction

The National Treasury Management Agency (NTMA) this week completed an auction of €1.25 billion worth of Irish Government bonds. The funds raised as part of the sale included €450m worth of ten-year bonds maturing in 2032, carrying a yield of 3.133 percent. In addition, €800m was also raised as part of the sale of treasury bonds maturing in 2037, carrying a yield of 3.37 percent. With the completion of this week’s auction, the NTMA has so far issued a total of €4.75 billion in benchmark bonds during 2023.

New accountability framework for financial services sector signed into law

On Thursday of this week, the Central Bank (Individual Accountability Framework) Act 2022 was formally signed into law by the President. The new legislation will place statutory obligations on certain customer-facing firms and senior individuals within them to set out clearly where responsibility and decision-making lies in what is termed as a new ‘Senior Accountability Executive Regime’ (SEAR). In addition, the Act also includes enhancements to the existing fitness and probity regime as well as providing for stronger Central Bank enforcement capabilities. Elements of the new regime will be enforced immediately and the Central Bank is expected to publish regulations and guidance around them shortly.

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