In this week’s public policy bulletin, we take a look at the ESRI’s analysis of the potential introduction of a universal basic income in Ireland. We also review the findings of the latest Consumer Sentiment Index from the Irish League of Credit Unions. In addition, we examine the CSO’s report on the number of homes built in 2022 as well as the latest Northern Ireland business demography statistics and launch of the new Northern Ireland Skills Council.
ESRI estimate introduction of universal basic income would cost €50 billion per year
In its opening remarks to a meeting of the Oireachtas budgetary and oversight committee this week, the ESRI forecasted that the introduction of a universal basic income (UBI) in Ireland could cost up to €50 billion per year to sustain. Commenting on the report of the Commission on Taxation and Welfare (which did not favour the introduction of a UBI) the ESRI noted that while “a UBI would avoid situations where people choose not to work in order to retain means-tested benefits”, its implementation “is likely to be very expensive, even if other existing benefits (such as unemployment benefits) are no longer required”. Moreover, the ESRI pointed out, “the net impacts of a UBI on labour supply are unclear”. Read the full statement to the committee here.
Consumer sentiment at 7-month high – Irish League of Credit Unions
Irish consumer sentiment rose strongly in January as a softening in oil prices, strong domestic economic data and a seasonal switch-off from business and political news encouraged a less negative view of the financial circumstances of Irish households, according to the latest Consumer Sentiment Index from the Irish League of Credit Unions. Registering a score of 55.2 on the Index (up from 48.7 In December 2022) the improved consumer sentiment mirrors gains in similar confidence measures taken in the US that likely reflected falling fuel costs as well as Germany where fiscal supports may also have played a role. In contrast, UK consumer confidence weakened in January reflecting growing negativity about the economy and concerns about the health of the public finances.
CSO confirms 29,815 new homes built in 2022
In its latest statistical release, the CSO has confirmed that 29,851 new homes were built in Ireland last year, an increase of 45.2 percent from 2021 and 41.3 percent up from 2019, pre-pandemic. The number of apartments completed in 2022 was 9,166, up 78.7 percent from 2021. According to the figures, all regions of the country saw a yearly increase in completion of more than 20 percent, at least while the Dublin region saw a 65.1 percent yearly increase. Interestingly, the release also shows that the average new dwelling size is continuing to gradually fall year on year. The average new dwelling size for 2022 is three-quarters of what it was in 2016 with the CSO identifying the decrease as being “driven by both an increase in the proportion of completed dwellings being apartments and a decrease in the size of single and scheme dwellings”.
Northern Ireland business demography statistics 2021 released
The latest Northern Ireland Business Demography statistics for 2021 were released this week by the Northern Ireland Statistics and Research Agency (NISRA). According to the statistics, there were 6,655 business births in Northern Ireland during 2021, an increase of 17.4 percent on the previous year. Meanwhile, there were 5,200 business deaths in Northern Ireland in 2021, an increase of 24.6 percent on the previous year. Notably however, Northern Ireland’s business death rate in 2021 (8.0 percent) remained lower than the other three UK regions. Scotland and Wales saw their highest business death rates since the series began in 2005 while business death rates in England are at their highest since 2017.
Department of the Economy announces establishment of Northern Ireland Skills Council
The Department of the Economy has launched a call for applicants to the Northern Ireland Skills Council – a new advisory body designed to provide strategic advice to ministers of the Northern Ireland Executive on issues relating to the development and implementation of skills policy in the region. While the new Council will primarily focus on skills strategy, it will also consider the broader context of the importance of skills in meeting the objectives of the Programme for Government and the economic vision for Northern Ireland. The Department has formally launched a public appointments competition for a chair and eight members of the Council with the specification seeking candidates “with a track record of working across a broad network of stakeholders and applying evidence-based analysis to inspire transformative change”. Closing date for applications is 12pm, Thursday 9 February with details on how to apply available at the Department of the Economy website.
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