Confidence in Northern Ireland’s economic outlook has deteriorated sharply, with only 8% of Chartered Accountants viewing prospects as ‘good’ or ‘very good’, according to the latest survey from Chartered Accountants Ulster Society.
This marks a significant drop from last year’s already low figure of 17%, highlighting persistent concerns over economic stagnation, rising costs, and government policy.
The survey, conducted among Northern Ireland’s Chartered Accountants, was carried out before President Trump’s tariff plan announcement, and presents a mixed picture of resilience and challenge. While businesses are adapting through AI adoption, sustainability initiatives, and flexible working arrangements, major economic pressures, including inflation, tax burdens, and workforce shortages, continue to weigh on growth prospects.
Key Findings
The survey shows that economic confidence has fallen in the last year. Only 8% of members believe the NI economy has strong growth prospects, down from 17% last year. 58% see the economy as either stagnant (42%) or contracting (16%). Inflation, high energy costs, and rising taxes are the most cited concerns. New US Tariffs, announced after the survey are expected to also play into concerns of local businesses.
60% of respondents believe financial distress is rising among businesses, though there are signs of improvement compared to previous years. While financial distress is still high, some members report improving conditions.
There is strong support for tax reform to boost competitiveness. 59% support devolved corporation tax powers, with 64% advocating tax alignment with the Republic of Ireland to boost competitiveness.
The UK’s exit from the EU continues to divide opinion for local businesses. 41% say Brexit has harmed Northern Ireland’s economy, while only 12% see a positive impact.
61% understand Northern Ireland’s unique dual market access as offering trade opportunities, but most of those surveyed feel that this potential positive is yet to be realised. The Windsor Framework receives a mixed response, with 1 in 5 businesses viewing it positively.
The survey also shows that workforce and skills shortages persist. 56% of businesses struggle to recruit suitable talent. Many chartered accountants feel the education system is not adequately preparing young people for employment. Employers are investing in training, but 26% believe it is insufficient.
The survey also shows that Artificial Intelligence (AI) and sustainability are gaining traction but present challenges for business. 79% believe AI will improve efficiency, but uncertainty remains around investment in AI solutions.
Many local businesses are adopting green initiatives, with 55% investing in energy efficiency and 53% going paperless. However, 41% see sustainability efforts as an added cost, and 43% feel unprepared for sustainability reporting.
Hybrid working remains common, but family pressures are growing. 43% of professionals work in a hybrid model, though some employers are pushing for more office time. Childcare costs remain a major barrier, with only 14% believing childcare is affordable and 27% of working parents adjusting their hours to manage family responsibilities.
The survey also shows that confidence in Government is low, with scepticism about public finance management and economic strategy. 57% do not believe the government can manage public finances effectively. The UK’s new Industrial Strategy has also been met with scepticism. 52% do not believe the UK’s new strategy will be transformational.
Call for Action
The Ulster Society is urging policymakers to take immediate action to restore confidence in the economy. Key priorities include a detailed long-term economic strategy to support sustainable growth.
The Ulster Society is also calling for greater investment in skills and education to address workforce shortages, as well as meaningful tax reform, including consideration of a more competitive corporate tax rate to stimulate investment.
The accountancy body also calls for support for businesses navigating sustainability requirements, and AI integration.
Gillian Sadlier, Chairperson of the Ulster Society, said: “Northern Ireland’s business community remains resilient, but business confidence is low. We are in straitened times due to global economic conditions, and this has been thrown into sharper focus by President Trump’s tariff policies. Businesses are facing increasing costs, skills shortages, and a lack of clarity from policymakers.
“If we are to build a stronger, more competitive economy, we need decisive action from government, investment in skills and infrastructure, and policies that enable long-term growth.”
270 Chartered Accountants in Northern Ireland took part in the survey.
Recommendations
Establish a Bespoke Tax (Corporation Tax) Regime
- Revisit the potential to reduce the Corporation Tax rate in NI and consider other taxes that could be devolved: Members have noted the importance of significantly enhancing Northern Ireland’s investment appeal, especially for FDI and high-growth sectors (e.g. AI, clean tech, advanced manufacturing) by more closely aligning tax and wider policy with Ireland.
Reduce Business Distress and Restore Confidence
- Stabilize Policy Signals: Commit to multiyear business tax policies and investment allowances to reduce uncertainty and support long-term planning.
- Expand Low-Interest Loan Schemes: Scale up access to low-cost finance for liquidity-constrained businesses, especially in sectors with export potential.
- Use Dual Market Messaging Strategically: Launch a global campaign positioning Northern Ireland as the only UK region with dual access to EU and GB markets, framing it as a unique investment gateway.
Provide Certainty Post-Brexit and Maximize the Windsor Framework
- Guarantee Regulatory Continuity: Work with UK and EU institutions to secure long-term clarity on customs, standards, and trading rules specific to Northern Ireland.
Strengthen Fiscal Transparency and Regional Strategy
- Create a NI-Specific Industrial Growth Plan: Align with UK-wide priorities but tailor the strategy to leverage NI’s strengths in Agri-tech, cybersecurity, advanced manufacturing, and green energy.
Invest in Skills for a Future-Ready Workforce
- Fund AI, Digital, and Green Skills Hubs: Develop regional centres of excellence in partnership with FE colleges and universities to rapidly expand access to future-proof training.
- Align Curriculum with Industry: Ensure school and university curricula reflect current and emerging business needs, with structured industry placement programs.
Support Responsible AI Adoption
- Develop Regional AI Adoption Standards: Create ethical and practical guidelines for AI use in NI businesses, ensuring innovation aligns with job security and data rights.
- Fund AI Workforce Transition Programs: Help workers shift into new roles as automation expands, supported by retraining subsidies and career counselling.
Support Businesses in Sustainability Transitions
- Offer guidance on sustainability compliance and reporting to help businesses navigate regulatory requirements.
Address Workforce Participation through Childcare Reform
- Expand Subsidised Childcare: Support working parents, especially women, by increasing childcare subsidies and extending eligibility.
- Promote Employer-Supported Childcare: Offer tax incentives to employers that provide on-site childcare or contribute to employee childcare costs.
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