In this week’s public policy bulletin, we take a look at the latest economic forecasts from both the Central Bank and OECD. In addition, we review a report on the increasing use of AI by Irish workers as well as new rules on the regulation of cryptocurrency marketing in the UK. We also examine the latest statistics on business birth and death rates in Northern Ireland over the past decade.
Global financial system remains vulnerable to disorderly market adjustments after a decade of elevated risk-taking – Central Bank
In its latest Financial Stability Review published this week, the Central Bank has outlined how risks to the global economy remain elevated - stemming from high inflation, a tightening of financial conditions and overall geopolitical fragmentation. Following what it labels as “a decade of elevated risk taking”, the bank forecasts that the global financial system will remain vulnerable to “disorderly market adjustments” and overall market volatility such as was evidenced by the recent turbulence in the global banking system. While domestically the bank forecasts that persistent inflation and higher interest rates could lead to slower growth, it does however acknowledge that households and businesses have largely proved resilient to inflationary shocks so far, owing in part to the significant reduction in private indebtedness over the past decade.
OECD forecasts lowest annual rate of GDP growth since the global financial crisis
Global GDP growth in 2023 is projected to be 2.7 percent, the lowest annual rate since the global financial crisis, with the exception of the 2020 pandemic period. In its latest Economic Outlook issued this week, the OECD notes that while the global economy is showing signs of improvement, the upturn remains weak amid significant downside risks. Lower energy prices are helping to bring down headline inflation and ease strains on household budgets, and the earlier-than-expected reopening of China (defined as a move away from lockdowns) has provided a boost to global activity. However, core inflation is proving persistent and the impact of higher interest rates is increasingly being felt across world economies. In the euro area, the OECD expects the ECB to keep raising rates in the face of still high core inflation, with a peak seen in the third quarter. It forecasts that the ECB will likely then leave its main rate at 4.25 percent through to the end of 2024.
One in five Irish workers currently use AI in their jobs – report
According to a new study conducted by Microsoft Ireland, 1 in 5 Irish workers (21 percent) reported using Artificial Intelligence (AI) tools in their job, while of those who do not use AI (67 percent), almost 1 in 4 say they would be interested in doing so. Moreover, while 82 percent of business leaders globally anticipate that employees will need new skills in the AI era, in Ireland skills availability has been identified as the most important obstacle to the adoption of AI. This, the report points out, is despite data showing that the share of AI talent in Ireland grew by more than 500 percent between 2016 and 2022. You can download the full report here.
UK’s Financial Conduct Authority introduces new rules to regulate the marketing of cryptoassets
A package of new measures was announced this week by the UK’s Financial Conduct Authority (FCA) aimed at strengthening regulations around the marketing of cryptoassets to retail consumers. Under the new rules, British consumers buying cryptoassets will get a 24-hour "cooling-off" period for the first time from 8 October this year. In addition, the suite of new measures will also include a ban on ‘refer a friend’ bonuses as well as a requirement on those marketing cryptoassets to highlight clear risk warnings and ensure that adverts are clear, fair and not misleading. The FCA has also launched a consultation on additional guidance setting out expectations of firms advertising cryptoassets to UK consumers. Those wishing to have their say will have until 10 August to respond.
Business birth rate in NI has risen over the last decade but continues to lag behind UK
Ulster University’s Economic Policy Centre (UUEPC) has this week published new research assessing business births and deaths in Northern Ireland over a decade, and the implications for productivity in region. According to the findings, the number of business births in NI rose by 45 percent between 2010 and 2021 (the highest in over a decade), compared to a 55 percent rise in the rest of the UK. By contrast, while the number of business deaths in NI during the same period decreased, the rest of the UK saw a 10 percent increase in the number of business deaths. UUEPC’s analysis suggests that business churn in NI (measured as the business birth rate plus the death rate) has risen from 16.6 percent in 2010 to 18.3 percent in 2021 whereas the UK has a higher churn rate at 23.5 percent in 2021. The report suggests that the combination of a lower business birth rate and a lower business death rate indicates that NI’s economy is less dynamic than other regions of the UK. The largest number of business births and deaths annually was recorded in the construction sector while the lowest has been largely in the education sector.
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