Neil Hughes outlines the survival options for small- and medium-sized businesses as the ‘next normal’ approaches. In general, 2018 and 2019 were good years for Irish business. Many companies entered 2020 with stronger balance sheets, relatively low debt levels, aggressive growth targets, and optimism – particularly in the small- and medium-sized enterprise (SME) sector. By Q2 2020, however, firefighting due to COVID-19 restrictions quickly soaked up all available management time and resources. Growth strategies were shelved, and survival was prioritised. Government supports were immediately made available to companies severely affected by the pandemic. Figures released by Revenue in February 2021 show that the State paid out a total of €9.3 billion in 2020 between the Pandemic Unemployment Payment (€5.1 billion), Temporary Wage Subsidy Scheme (€2.8 billion) and the Employment Wage Subsidy Scheme (€1.4 billion). Seventy thousand companies have availed of the Revenue Commissioners’ Debt Warehousing Scheme, at a total cost of around €1.9 billion. These supports, along with the forbearance provided by financial institutions in Ireland, have helped prevent a tsunami of corporate insolvencies. The concern, however, is if post-pandemic those companies that ultimately need help the most will not reach out and avail of the supports and processes available. Overcoming the stigma It is regrettable that, historically at least, the use of formal corporate insolvency mechanisms to restructure struggling businesses has been viewed quite negatively by the Irish business community. The inference is that such businesses were somehow mismanaged when, in reality, this was often not the case. Companies can fall into financial difficulty for various reasons. Factors outside the control of company directors can necessitate a formal restructure rather than the terminal alternative of liquidation. Now, in the middle of a pandemic, a previously successful business operator, through no fault of their own, can find themselves saddled with an unsustainable level of debt and risk becoming insolvent. While government support measures were necessary to prevent widespread corporate failures and potential social unrest, for many companies, these actions may have simply delayed the inevitable and kicked the can further down the road. In most corporate insolvencies, there is an expected level of pressure for money that the company does not have, which precipitates a formal restructure. This pressure has been temporarily released, but the creditor strain will inevitably build again when trading resumes. ‘Zombie’ companies Low insolvency numbers for 2020 are therefore misleading. There is anecdotal evidence to suggest that several companies have ceased trading, have no intention of reopening and, in some instances, have handed the keys of their premises back to landlords. However, these ‘zombie’ companies are not included in the insolvency statistics, as they continue to avail of government supports and will be wound up whenever the supports end. While helpful, the subsidies and supports do not cover the entire running costs of a business, and many companies continue to rack up debt as their doors remain closed. These debts may seem insurmountable, but there is hope. The Great Recession vs the COVID-19 crisis This current recession is in stark contrast to the ‘Great Recession’ that resulted from the banking crisis of 2008. Back then, there was a systemic lack of liquidity in the market due to the collapse of Ireland’s banking sector, which left SMEs with little or no access to funding. This time, there are several re-capitalisation options with banks (including the new challenger banks) in a position to provide funding, especially through the Strategic Banking Corporation of Ireland (SBCI) Loan Scheme. Many private equity funds are also willing and ready to invest in Irish businesses. After the pandemic All the while, the Government can borrow at negative interest rates to stimulate growth and recovery. With the vaccine roll-out, we are starting to see the light at the end of the tunnel. This begs the question: what will happen when the pandemic is over? There are several key points to note: Consumer behaviour: it is reasonable to assume that a large portion of the population will revert to normal. This could generate a domestic economy similar to the rejuvenation that followed the Spanish Flu pandemic of 1918 and the end of the First World War. There is certainly pent-up demand and savings (deposits held in Irish financial institutions were at an all-time high of €124 billion in late 2020). Unfortunately, a portion of society will change their consumer habits forever due to COVID-19, which will have a detrimental effect on businesses that find themselves on the wrong side of history and unable to survive the recovery. Government action: how the Government reacts will have lasting repercussions. Difficult and unpopular decisions are likely required to pay for the ever-rising cost of the pandemic and its restrictions. Such choices may result in an increase in direct and/or indirect taxes, with less disposable income circulating in the economy. The UK Government has already made moves in this direction with its 2021 budget. The Revenue Commissioners: Revenue’s intended course of action is currently unclear in relation to clawing back the €1.9 billion of tax that has been warehoused or how aggressively it will pursue Irish companies for current tax debt after the pandemic is over. Early indicators are that Revenue will revert to a business-as-usual strategy sooner rather than later. Banks and other financial lenders: the attitude of Irish banks and financial institutions to non-performing loans remains to be seen. Banks have been accommodating to date and worked with, rather than against, borrowers – a criticism levelled against them in the wake of the 2008 banking collapse. Personal guarantees provided by directors to financial institutions to acquire corporate debt, particularly in the SME sector, will have a significant bearing on successful corporate restructuring options. The attitude of landlords: landlords in Ireland are a broad church, ranging from those with small, family-operated single units to large, multi-unit institutional landlords or pension funds. Landlord-tenant collaboration is essential for stable retail and hospitality sectors, and in the main, rent deferrals were a foregone conclusion during the various lockdown stages of the pandemic. However, these rent deferrals still have to be dealt with. The attitude of general trade creditors: in certain instances, smaller trade creditors in terms of value have been the most aggressive in debt collection and putting pressure on businesses to repay debts as soon as their doors reopen. Companies with healthy balance sheets and those that managed their cash flow prudently will be the ones to come out the other side of this pandemic when the government supports subside. Businesses will need time to: Assess the post-pandemic consumer demand for their products and services;  Assess their reasonable future cash flow projections; Agree on payment arrangements for old and new debt; and Make an honest assessment of whether they will be able to trade their way through the recovery phase. For those who have been worst hit, however, all is not lost. Ireland has some of the most robust restructuring mechanisms in the world, with low barriers to entry and very high success rates. The fallout can be mitigated if company directors take appropriate steps. Restructuring options When it comes to successful restructuring, being proactive remains the key advice from insolvency professionals. Too often, businesses sleepwalk into a crisis. Options narrow if there has been a consistent and pronounced erosion of the balance sheet. Those who act fast and engage with experts have the best chance of survival. 1. Examinership There are various restructuring options available, but examinership is currently most suitable for rescuing insolvent SMEs. The overarching purpose of examinership is to save otherwise viable enterprises from closure, thereby saving employees’ jobs. In 2019, liquidations accounted for 70% of the total number of corporate insolvencies in Ireland, and examinership only accounted for 2% of the total. It is plain that a higher portion of those liquidations could have been prevented, jobs saved, and value preserved if an alternative restructuring option like examinership had been taken. There are only two statutory criteria for a company to be suitable for examinership: 1. It must be either balance sheet insolvent or cash flow insolvent. It cannot pay debts as and when they fall due; and It must have a reasonable prospect of survival.  The rationale for examinership in a post-pandemic environment is therefore clear. Companies saddled with debt will likely meet the insolvency requirement, and historically profitable companies that have become insolvent due to the closures associated with the pandemic will pass the ‘reasonable prospect of survival’ test. Once appointed, the examiner must formulate a scheme of arrangement, which is typically facilitated by new investment or fresh borrowings. The scheme will usually lead to creditors being compromised and the company emerging from the process solvent and trading as normal. 2. The Summary Rescue Process One of the main criticisms levelled at examinership is the perceived high level of legal costs required to bring a company successfully through the process. To address this perceived issue, in July 2020, An Tánaiste, Leo Varadkar TD, wrote to the Company Law Review Group (CLRG) requesting that it examine the issue of rescue for small companies and make recommendations as to how such a process might be designed. The CLRG’s reports in October 2020 recommended the ‘Summary Rescue Process’. It would utilise the key aspects of the examinership process and be tailor-made for restructuring small and micro companies (fulfilling two of the following three criteria: annual turnover of up to €12 million, a balance sheet of up to €6 million, and less than 50 employees). Such companies constitute 98% of Ireland’s corporates and employ in the region of 788,000 people. A public consultation process is now underway to finetune the legislation. Here is what we know so far about the Summary Rescue Process: It will be commenced by director resolution rather than court application. It will be shorter than examinership (50-70 days has been suggested). A registered insolvency practitioner will oversee the process. Cross-class cramdown of debts will be possible, which binds creditors to a restructuring plan once it is considered fair and equitable. It will not be necessary to approach the court for approval unless there are specific creditor objections. Safeguards will be put in place to guard against irresponsible and dishonest director behaviour. A proposed rescue plan and scheme will be presented to the company’s creditors, who will vote on the resolutions. A simple majority will be required to approve the scheme. The Summary Rescue Process will be a huge step forward. The process of court liquidation has been systematically removed from the court system in recent years in favour of voluntary liquidations. This new rescue process will bring a similar approach to formal restructuring, allowing SMEs greater access to a low-cost restructuring option akin to a voluntary examinership. It will give more hope to companies adversely affected financially by the pandemic that options exist for their survival. Neil Hughes FCA is Managing Partner at Baker Tilly in Ireland and author of A Practical Guide to Examinership, published by Chartered Accountants Ireland.

In the wake of the Davy scandal, Cormac Lucey identifies four urgently required changes for Ireland’s regulatory system. The scientist Max Planck said that science advances funeral by funeral. In his 1950 autobiography, he explained, “A new scientific truth does not triumph by convincing its opponents and making them see the light, but rather because its opponents eventually die and a new generation grows up that is familiar with it.” If science advances funeral by funeral, how fast does corporate governance progress? The implication of Planck’s aphorism is that old leopards don’t change their spots and cannot be taught new tricks: if you don’t like your leopard, you must get rid of it or, if the leopard is protected by employment law, issue it with a P45. In Ireland, corporate governance advances P45 by P45. I am sceptical of the notion that revised organisational guidelines and regular attendance at corporate governance updates achieve much. If you have to regularly teach staff the difference between right and wrong, it begs the question: are you working with the wrong people? There is a lot of common sense in a popular maxim from Charlie Munger, the sprightly 97-year-old who jointly leads Berkshire Hathaway together with the merely 90-year-old Warren Buffett. Munger said: “Show me the incentive, and I’ll show you the outcome”. What are the incentives in Ireland? Consider the recent scandal at stockbrokers, Davy. This concerned a case where 16 key staff members purchased bonds in the then defunct Anglo Irish Bank in 2014 and concealed this fact from the vendor, who had commissioned Davy to get the best price possible for the thinly traded bonds. The bonds were sold by the vendor for 20.25 cent in the euro, realising €5.6 million. If they were held until maturity – when they were repaid in full – they would have generated gross proceeds (before funding and legal expenses) for the Davy insiders of €22 million. The maximum fine the Central Bank may issue for regulatory infractions is just €10 million. And the fine administered in this case was only €4.1 million. This raises serious questions about the design of our regulatory system. That the Davy executives who profited from this deal will have seen the value of their part-ownership of the brokerage firm drop considerably was a merely coincidental side effect of the whole process. It seems to me that several changes are urgently required: The maximum fine for a regulatory infraction should be a multiple (five to ten times) of the gross gains made. Where possible, fines should be levied on individuals rather than on firms. Those who have acted improperly in the past should not continue to be employed in senior roles or hold large ownership positions at financial services companies. We should financially incentivise whistle-blowers, like in the USA. There, a whistle-blower can claim a share of the wrongdoer’s loot. Bradley Birkenfeld, an ex-banker, was paid $104 million by the Internal Revenue Service for exposing his former bosses who had helped US clients hide money in Swiss bank accounts. If we can’t rely on people always being honest (and we can’t), then let’s change their estimate of where their self-interest lies. A low-cost regulatory system focused more on incentives and occasional but vigorous action aimed at wrongdoers can replace today’s expensive system, which is built on detailed rules and extensive box-ticking that largely focuses on the already compliant. Cormac Lucey is an economic commentator and lecturer at Chartered Accountants Ireland.

Seven Chartered Accountants reflect on their careers overseas and describe life in different countries as the COVID-19 pandemic continues. Fiona Walsh  Audit Manager at KPMG  Sydney, Australia Time abroad: three years In June 2018, I was given the opportunity to move to Sydney as part of KPMG’s global mobility programme. This was a really exciting opportunity, both personally and professionally, so I packed my bags and moved half-way across the world. Moving with the same company and in the same role made the move a lot easier as, along with starting a new job, you are trying to familiarise yourself with a new city, find a place to live, and settle in. The first few months are a really exciting time but while Australia is quite similar to Ireland culturally, it did take longer to settle in than I had imagined. When the pandemic hit, it changed life as we knew it in Sydney. The switch to a virtual world was sudden. At first, there was a novelty attached to it. We quickly had to adapt as most Australian companies are June year-ends, so busy season was fast approaching. However, in Sydney, we returned to the office relatively quickly as COVID-19 numbers decreased. We have been working from both the office and home for several months now. One positive outcome from the pandemic is that we now have a lot more work flexibility, but I don’t believe a full-time work-from-home model is sustainable in the long-term. We found the transition back to the office easier than expected, with a renewed value on face-to-face interactions with teams and clients. In Australia, we have been very lucky with the impact of COVID-19 restrictions compared to Ireland, but the toughest part is that, for the Irish community abroad, we don’t know when we can next jump on a flight to visit family and friends. I got engaged to my fiancé in October (also an Irish Chartered Accountant), so we are very excited to get home to celebrate. The uncertainty of the pandemic makes a full-time move home more difficult to contemplate in the short-term. Claire Iball Finance Director at Intel Portland, Oregon, USA Time abroad: 15 years The worst part of being away from home during the pandemic is not being able to physically see and hug my family in Ireland, though FaceTime and WhatsApp have eased the distance. When I took this role in the US, I thought I would stay for two to three years. I didn’t know what I was getting into. I am super independent, but the first few months without friends and family were difficult. That said, I don’t think I would do anything differently. You can only grow when challenged by new situations, people, and environments. It tested my ability to adapt and respond to change and differences. Working for a US company where the majority of business partners are US-based means more traditional work hours. In contrast, working for a US company while living in Ireland meant working later into the evening to collaborate with US colleagues. And while I would love the opportunity to work in Ireland and live closer to family, I have also started my own family here and have a different lifestyle and new friendships. I think working from home during the pandemic has opened up job opportunities and does not require experts to be in certain locations. As the end of pandemic is in sight, we will reflect and adapt to the new world and way of working.  I think there are great personal development opportunities in working abroad. Anyone thinking of doing so should go for it. If you want to experience a new country, culture, and learn new ways of working, that’s the best way to go about it. It’s always better to regret something you’ve done rather than something you haven’t done. S. Colin Neill Board member New Jersey, USA Time abroad: 45 years On graduation from Trinity, I joined Arthur Andersen in Dublin. I had always heard that being a Chartered Accountant would provide a passport to travel the world, and indeed it proved to be.  My wanderlust took me to New York after qualification at a time when it was relatively unusual for Chartered Accountants to make such a move. I eventually got involved in the formation of the Association of Chartered Accountants in the US (ACAUS), which sought to enhance and promote the Chartered brand. The effort was extremely successful – ACAUS celebrated 40 years last year and has achieved mutual recognition of qualifications with many US states. My life would not have turned out the way it did without the solid business foundation of the Chartered Accountant training and qualification. I am now semi-retired, but I remain active on several boards. The challenge for me has been to master and embrace current technology, which I have luckily done. Some of the boards I serve on support the charitable fundraising activities of hospitals, both in the US and Ireland. The pandemic has made holding live fundraising events impossible, and that has had severe consequences for the hospitals. On the other hand, the commercial entities whose boards on which I serve are thriving. Unfortunately, one is an historical cemetery and crematory – business is booming. While I travel back to Ireland several times year – mostly to play golf – leaving was a very good move for me. The only time myself and my Irish friends ever questioned moving back to Ireland was during the rise of the Celtic Tiger. The thought did not last long, however. Gavin Fitzpatrick Director of Financial Accounting and Advisory Services at Grant Thornton San Francisco, California, USA  Time abroad: 20 months The pandemic has definitely made it more challenging to achieve the objectives I set for myself when first taking this role. Meeting existing clients to further develop relationships has been more difficult in a remote environment. Building rapport with new teams, whether internal or external, has required additional effort. Add to this the personal challenges of keeping a young family in good spirits during lockdown in a foreign country. This role, and the last 12 months, have taught me the importance being agile, staying positive, and taking stock regularly to challenge myself to ensure I am putting effort into relevant tasks. The way I support existing clients has changed, but they still get value from a local contact who can help them navigate a world of constant change. Despite a year of home-schooling and travel restrictions, my family have managed to make the most of this adventure, creating memories, friendships, and achieving many personal goals along the way.  Despite the challenges, this move has been a success, both personally and professionally. If I had the opportunity to do it all over again, I wouldn’t do anything differently. We try to make the best decisions we can with the information we have at a point in time. When the outlook changes, no matter how radically, we adapt. Roles such as mine are important for our business and the development of our teams. While planning for similar roles in the future will no doubt mean considering additional matters, I would encourage anyone to grab these opportunities wherever possible. Fearghal O’Riordan Vice President at Aon Cayman Islands Time abroad: 11 years I’m missing Ireland. It has been 18 months since I was home. Not being able to see family, friends, neighbours and Galway has been a challenge. I am a keen horseracing fan, so I miss being able to visit stables and see the horses. But, I do enjoy it here, and I guess I am settled now. This is home. I met my wife here on my first visit and we have been together 19 years, and the Cayman Islands people have been very welcoming and good to me. It’s a very attractive place to live. I love the mix of cultures here in the Caribbean. We have over 100 nationalities in a population of 65,000. You meet lots of wonderful people with great stories of life in their homelands. We are fortunate to have a super global IT infrastructure supporting our local office. That held up very well when we all went remote in March 2020. Thankfully, the IT didn’t buckle under the strain. The Cayman Islands came out of lockdown in July and I’ve been working in the office since, though staff do have flexibility to continue to work from home, especially those who commute through morning traffic. The Cayman Islands is (as of 15 March 2021), COVID-19 community transmission-free since July 2020 so we are very, very fortunate to be living relatively normal lives with the sole exception of the border being closed so travel is restricted. Having emigrated twice, I would implore anyone thinking of doing so to make the most of where you are – be it in Ireland or abroad. Everywhere has benefits and downsides. Enjoy the best of where you are and, if you move, make the best of that place. Nowhere is perfect but if you do have that sense of adventure, go for it. Louise O’Donnell  Manager of International Operations, Strategy, Legal & Compliance at Oman Insurance Dubai, UAE  Time abroad: 12 years I definitely knew what I was getting into when I moved here 12 years ago, and I would not change anything with regards to working and living overseas. I believe it has moulded me and allowed me to work in an extremely multi-cultural environment where I experience different viewpoints that will remain with me in the future. On a personal level, it allowed me to put down roots in a new city, take up new hobbies, and create a life. I also met my husband in Dubai.  However, due to the pandemic, it is the first time since leaving Ireland that I have not been able to go home to see my family and friends. The rate of change in lockdowns and the ambiguity prevented me from doing so. That said, I am not ready to move home yet, and given that my personal life is very much entwined in the region, it would be a difficult choice to make. My husband is from Palestine, so it would have to be a good move for both of us – a consideration I didn’t have when I jumped at the chance to move to Dubai.  For others wanting to move abroad, I would give the same advice pre-pandemic and post-pandemic: go for it. You might have a defined timeline for moving overseas and a plan for when you might then return home. I had that in mind, as well, but my plans changed. We all think ‘I will live overseas for a maximum of three years and then go home’ – most expats in the UAE had the same thing in mind, but most usually end up here for longer than anticipated. I think there will always be a need for overseas employment, particularly in locations that are well-known expat hotspots. These locations continue to be transient and are developing fast, hence the need to bring new talent into these cities will remain. Even though we are still working from home and many countries remain in lockdown, I do not believe that this will continue full-time post-pandemic. There is a lot of debate on this topic and we do hear of certain industries moving their staff to 100% work-from-home, but I am a firm believer that innovative work still gets done in the office and we all need face-to-face interaction. Niall Fagan  Audit Senior Manager at Grant Thornton  Newport Beach, California, USA Time abroad: 10 years When I embarked on my secondment in 2011, I was looking for a new adventure both personally and professionally. The initial transition was challenging, but working for a large global organisation with consistent systems and methodology made the work transition easier. Having been one of the first secondees in the San Francisco office, I set up a group where we help future secondees and international hires with their transition to the US and I love to pass along all of my experiences. It’s been just over a year since I’ve been to our office or to a client site. At first, it seemed impossible to think we’d be able to operate at the same level of efficiency remotely. While working from home has definitely had its challenges, I believe we’ve demonstrated that we can perform efficient audits in a remote setting, which could have a large impact on our industry. It brings into question the need for large office spaces and the need for audit team onsite every day. Continued remote working should provide more flexibility and better work-life balance for people. From a personal point of view, while the pandemic has been tough and we might have to wait until 2022 before we can make it back to Ireland again to visit family and friends, it has allowed me to spend a lot more time with my two small children, for which I’m thankful. If someone is considering a career overseas in the post-pandemic world, my advice would be to go for it. The Chartered Accountancy qualification is highly respected worldwide. You can gain invaluable experience, learn new skills, and grow your global network. From a life experience perspective, I believe living and working in another country is extremely valuable, and I would encourage anyone who has an interest to take a chance.

One of the few silver linings of this pandemic, according to Dawn McLaughlin, is the evolution of leaner businesses that are better positioned to serve their customers.  I am always amazed at the resilience and determination of our business community. History has demonstrated our resolve over the years with businesses trading through all types of adversity. At every turn, we dusted ourselves down and got straight back to serving our customers and community. No matter what we faced, and there were some desperate times, we worked through them. It took a pandemic to stop us in our tracks. It therefore came as no surprise when a recent survey carried out by the Londonderry Chamber of Commerce revealed that 72% of members were optimistic about the future. Despite being in lockdown and having no clarity on the lifting of restrictions, the Chamber’s members see better days ahead. This was further brought to the fore at my recent President’s Lunch when the level of positivity was palpable. While the short-term challenges were acknowledged, the opportunities in healthtech and fintech beginning to bear fruit were noted together with the creation of spinouts from the collaboration between local health and educational establishments. So, what is there to look forward to? And how do we get out of the current situation? It is that entrepreneurial spirit that keeps shining through. Avoid the temptation to wallow in the problem; instead, look for the solution. And we have plenty to build on. There is pent-up demand in the market, surplus funds held by some, and financial assistance in the pipeline to kick-start the high street. For innovative and ambitious businesses, alternative and export-led markets are waiting to be explored. Invest NI is ready and willing to assist businesses with creative ideas and export potential. Traders who survive the pandemic must be poised to take advantage of the opportunities ahead. During the lockdown, owner-managers took a hard look at their business and made necessary changes. The fat has been shed and processes refined. We have leaner businesses that are better positioned to serve their customers in a more streamlined and efficient manner. When we look to the northwest, we see tremendous opportunity for the years ahead. Based on four pillars that span everything from tourism and digital innovation to employability and health and wellbeing, the City Deal will help create a thriving and prosperous region with equality of opportunity for all. It will also further cement the northwest as a top area in the United Kingdom and Ireland to set up a business, acting as a regional hub of enterprise and entrepreneurship that fosters innovation and development. All this, coupled with existing strengths like the high quality of life and low cost of living, makes the northwest more attractive than ever to foreign investors, start-up companies, entrepreneurs, students, and families looking to relocate. The recent government funding to support the vital air route between City of Derry Airport and London Stansted also helps keep our region connected to crucial business hubs across these islands. This, together with the A5/A6 upgrade, are vital factors for companies looking to invest in the northwest. Now is the time to look ahead to the future with confidence – a future that looks increasingly bright. Dawn McLaughlin is Founder of Dawn McLaughlin & Co. Chartered Accountants  and President of Londonderry Chamber of Commerce.

PwC Northern Ireland’s Emma Murray explains why she’s looking forward to returning to work in the firm’s brand new nine-storey headquarters and helping local businesses get back on track. Coming back to work after having my baby to a world that had been transformed because of COVID-19, of course I found that so much had changed. But what will always be the same is the importance of actually being together, and I can’t wait until we are,” says Emma Murray, Audit Partner at PwC in Northern Ireland. And in a few short months, Emma will be joining her colleagues in Belfast as the firm opens new headquarters in the city centre, a multi-million-pound investment by the UK firm that underlines its commitment to local talent and businesses. “Merchant Square is a transformative investment because we’ve been focused from the start on ensuring that collaboration will be at the heart of everything we do, from our people to our clients and our Place & Purpose partners,” says Emma. “After a year of being apart, we value more than ever the impact of working together, the spark of conversation that sets ideas flowing. In audit, one of the most important things we do is support the training and career development of our teams, and that happens best in person rather than over a video call.” The way PwC supports its staff is front and centre in its new headquarters. For a start, the nine-floor building will have a dedicated wellbeing space fitted with meditation pods, space for exercise classes like yoga and pilates, and treatment rooms to accommodate manicurists or physiotherapists. It is also evident in how it has further invested in its people through the Digital Academy programme, which trains participants in new technologies focused on data analytics, visualisation, and automation. “It’s hard to know how we would have managed the last year without technology. If there were any questions about the sense of investing so heavily in technology before the pandemic, there isn’t any more. The firm was ahead of its time in understanding why staff needed access to the best technology, to the point where we were able to pick up our laptops on the last day in the office and start working from home almost seamlessly,” Emma adds. “How we audit has changed as a result of COVID-19. As a result of the technology holding up so well, we have been able to conduct audits remotely. It was a culture shock in many ways at the start as there was always such a heavy reliance on being present at a client site to validate source documents and be close to client teams. But we’ve been able to demonstrate how we can do much of this through secure online portals for collecting client data and information and connecting with group teams worldwide where there would have been an expectation for a physical visit to overseas locations. However, as the saying goes, nothing beats being there – but at least we have developed a way of working that gives us more options and, indeed, more flexibility. “For years, we innovated how we audit, using smart technologies to extract data remotely, to analyse it, and to enable our clients to drill down into it where appropriate. We always look for new technology-enabled solutions, but we’ll never underestimate the importance of having the very best-trained people to be in charge,” Emma continues. The firm often states that its most important asset is its people, which is very clear as it prepares for a return to the office. Surveys have revealed that, while some firms are transitioning to a permanent ‘work from home’ culture, PwC staff plan to use the office between two and four days a week. “There’s a culture that people embrace in the firm. I’ve spent my entire career here, so clearly there’s a lot to commend it. But it’s been incredible how much focus has been placed on supporting each other during this time. The leadership recognises mental health as a business-critical issue; if we’re not healthy, how can we be effective? So we’ve had things like a year-long subscription to a mental health app, firm-wide live streams to discuss resilience and topical issues that impacted people over the year, and access to mental health counsellors through our health plan,” says Emma. “We also created a way that empowered people to take time out during lockdown if they had caring responsibilities, with a new time code. Things like this, which people spent much time researching and developing, spoke volumes to our people about how they were valued,” she continues. “In many ways, I’m not surprised at all. I was promoted while I was pregnant, which would be unexpected in many other places. But it was never a problem here. So far from feeling like being in the office is a drag, I see people who look forward tobeing back with colleagues and friends, particularly in our brand new headquarters.” In recent weeks, PwC revealed that Northern Ireland is the best place to live and start a business, according to the Future of Government survey of 4,000 people in the UK. The team, led by Kevin MacAllister, is working with companies of all sizes in the local market. According to Emma, getting the next couple of years right for business is the most important thing the firm can do. “I became an accountant because I was inspired by our entrepreneurs, and I still am. I’ve been there with the owners who have faced difficult times, and I admire the passion to turn it around. I love to see businesses bring in fresh things, new money, nurture talent – helping to make it a good place to live and work. For me, it’s much more than a job. It’s personal.” Emma Murray is Audit Partner at PwC Northern Ireland.

Dee Moran and Lilian Halpin explain entities’ existing obligations regarding beneficial ownership and look ahead to future developments, focusing on trusts in particular. Most entities have a legitimate role to play in the global economy, but they also have the potential for criminals to use the structure for money laundering, terrorist financing and other financial misconduct. To identify and increase the transparency of those that seek to hide their ownership and control of these entities, many countries have introduced a register of beneficial ownership. Having a register ensures that the ultimate owners/controllers are identified, and that accurate and up-to-date information on a beneficial owner is readily accessible to authorised officers and other competent authorities that are entitled to the information under money laundering legislation. In Ireland, entities must maintain a register to comply with obligations under the 4th EU Anti-Money Laundering Directive (4AMLD), which was passed in May 2015 and subsequently amended by the 5th EU Anti-Money Laundering Directive (5AMLD), which was passed in May 2018. Who is a beneficial owner? A beneficial owner is defined in the directives and Irish legislation by reference to the entity type (e.g. trust, corporate entity, investment limited partnership). The different pieces of legislation should be consulted depending on the entity. Common threads in the definitions are ownership and control, whether direct or indirect, and a holding of more than 25% of the entity. Are there two registers? There are two separate registers in Ireland. While companies were required since 2016 to gather information and maintain an internal register of beneficial ownership, the 2019 beneficial ownership of corporate entities regulations (one of two sets of regulations passed in 2019 relevant to beneficial ownership) required relevant entities to file information in a central register. The Central Register of Beneficial Ownership of Companies and Industrial and Provident Societies, which falls under the remit of the registrar of the Companies Registration Office, was opened for filings in July 2019. Any companies/societies in existence on 22 June 2019 had until 22 November 2019 to file their beneficial ownership details, and the five-month timeline to register relevant entities remains. Similarly, certain other financial vehicles described below must maintain an internal beneficial ownership register. There are also legislative requirements to file information on the central register, the Beneficial Ownership Register for Certain Financial Vehicles. Under specific legislation, the Central Bank of Ireland is designated as the registrar responsible for maintaining this central register. Under EU anti-money laundering (AML) regulations that came into effect in 2020, Irish Collective Asset Management Vehicles (ICAVs), unit trusts and credit unions that were in existence when the AML regulations came into force were required to register by 25 December 2020. Under the Investment Limited Partnerships (Amendment) Act 2020, which was commenced recently, existing investment limited partnerships (ILPs) and common contractual funds (CCFs) have until 1 September 2021 to register. Under both pieces of legislation, new financial vehicles that come into existence following the legislation’s implementation have six months from the date of coming into existence to register. What details must be registered? The information that must be delivered to each registrar concerning each beneficial owner includes name, date of birth, nationality, residential address, and a statement of the nature and extent of the interest held or control exercised by each beneficial owner. For Central Bank registration, it must be stated if the person is currently a pre-approval controlled function (PCF) holder in the entity or at any other regulated financial services provider. For companies and industrial and provident societies, the 2019 regulations require a PPS number to be furnished for verification purposes. The 2020 Act also requires PPS numbers to verify the information delivered in the case of ILPs and CCFs. In the case of both registers, the registrar is not permitted to disclose PPS numbers and must store them securely. Relevant entities must keep the beneficial ownership register up-to-date, and this information must align with the information filed on the Central Register. Where change(s) occur, the entity has 14 days to deliver the information so that the relevant amendments are made to the Central Register. Who is entitled to access the information in the Central Register? There are two tiers of access to data in the Central Register: Unrestricted access to the information in the Central Register will be afforded to authorised officers within specific organisations (i.e. An Garda Síochána, the Financial Intelligence Unit of An Garda Síochána, the Revenue Commissioners, the Criminal Assets Bureau, the Central Bank of Ireland, and other Irish competent authorities engaged in the prevention, detection, or investigation of possible money laundering or terrorist financing. Restricted access to information in the Central Register will be made available to the general public and designated persons (e.g. a bank carrying out customer due diligence, save where the beneficial owner is a minor). Those with restricted access will be able to access the name, month and year of birth, nationality, country of residence, and the statement about the nature and extent of the beneficial interest held. The beneficial owner’s date of birth and address will not be available to those with restricted access. Data protection law Any information exchange and sharing mandated by the legislation must comply with data protection law. Personal data is defined in Section 69 of the Data Protection Act 2018, and information to be collected and held on the central registers can include personal data. The data protection obligations are expressly recognised in the 2019 Regulations and 2020 Act, both of which provide that the Data Protection Act 2018 shall apply to the access the registrar affords to a designated person and any member of the public in respect of the information in the central register. Sanctions Sanctions include a fine of up to €5,000 for a trustee and a fine not exceeding €500,000 or up to 12 months imprisonment in respect of corporate entities. Future developments It is expected that a separate central register in respect of the beneficial ownership of trusts will be implemented in due course, as required under the Directives. This is expected to materialise sooner rather than later – trust regulations published in 2019 already impose obligations on trustees to seek and obtain information from beneficial owners of trusts and establish internal registers of beneficial ownership. The Criminal Justice (Money Laundering and Terrorist Financing) (Amendment) Act 2020 was signed into Irish law recently, and contains provisions in relation to trusts. It defines a “beneficial owner” and lists certain trusts that would be excluded from a future requirement to register. These provisions are being introduced in anticipation of the Minister for Finance introducing further regulation in the area and to address part of the overall transposition of 5AMLD into Irish law. In Dáil discussions on the provisions, the Minister made specific reference to the requirements in 5AMLD that all member states establish a central register of beneficial ownership of express trusts. On the international front, the Financial Action Task Force (FATF), an intergovernmental organisation that promotes policies to combat money laundering and terrorist financing and of which Ireland is a member, announced in February that it would review the global rules around beneficial ownership. The European Commission recently stated that it would closely monitor the setting up of the central bank account mechanisms and the beneficial ownership registers by member states to ensure that they are populated with high-quality data. The Directives require interconnection of member state registers, and work to interconnect the beneficial ownership registers has already started. The interconnection will be operational in 2021. Meanwhile, related EU regulation dealing with the EU Central Register’s technical specifications is expected to come into force soon. The requirement to keep and maintain a register for beneficial ownership is here to stay, and a central register for trusts will soon be a legal requirement. An understanding of the requirements is important if sanctions are to be avoided. An EU central register is imminent. This will put further pressure on individual countries to maintain registers with high-quality information, so expect the spotlight to continue to shine brightly when this comes into existence. Dee Moran is Professional Accountancy Leader at Chartered Accountants Ireland. Lilian Halpin is a Consultant at Chartered Accountants Ireland.

Dr Brian Keegan explains why having political deadlines isn’t always a good idea. Deadlines have always been a feature of commercial life, but the ubiquity of dates by which something must occur is a relatively recent facet of political life. Politics has always had its own cycles, from the duration of a monarch’s reign to recurring intervals by which general elections must be held. Mandatory due dates or precise intervals more often reflect an external rather than a domestic political imperative. In recent decades, commercial concerns over deadlines have spilt over into the political arena as government becomes bigger and more technocratic. Timeframes for decision-making are as much determined by foreign affairs as domestic factors. Having political deadlines isn’t always a good idea. While the obvious effect of imposing a deadline is to ensure the completion of a task, the act of establishing deadlines in itself may have a more subtle effect on the way we think about those tasks. Some years ago, researchers at the Carey Business School at John Hopkins University in the US carried out a study of how workers react to deadlines. They found that longer deadlines can lead people to believe that a particular assignment is harder than it actually is. That, in turn, can result in managers committing more resources to the work needed to meet the deadline. If this finding is correct, it suggests that the shorter the deadline, the less costly it might be to meet. The researchers also found that, when workers are faced with multiple deadlines (and few of us have the luxury to do only one thing at a time), people seem to prioritise less important assignments with immediate deadlines over more important pieces of work with more extended deadlines. There is an apparent human tendency to do what is urgent rather than what is important. While these findings have implications for management practice, they also have implications for the political system. The tendencies described by the researchers have been echoed in the handling by both the British and the European institutions of the Brexit process. The repeated extension of Brexit deadlines through 2019 created an impression that the process was more difficult than it actually was. In 2020, everything to do with the pandemic was urgent, so almost everything else received more political attention than the negotiations. Consequently, both sides allowed themselves extension after extension to negotiate the Trade and Cooperation Agreement, even though it should have been well within the capacity of Brussels and London to deal with both issues in parallel. The result was that we ended up with a barebones trade agreement between the UK and the EU, concluded on Christmas Eve. This outcome has been unnecessarily difficult for businesses to deal with. Customs and quality checks involve routine and paperwork – such processes may be unwelcome, but companies can generally cope with processes. The shortcomings are on the official side. The British Government is now repeating the same mistake by further pushing out deadlines associated with the Northern Ireland protocol and the checking of goods arriving into Great Britain from the EU. Far from relieving pressure on businesses, this will merely perpetuate the difficulties. It also makes the setting up of checks and controls by customs and trade officials and businesses alike appear more difficult. Political processes are rarely amenable to deadlines because the political process is not always about what should be done; it is also about what can be done. One of the lessons of Brexit is that we would be better served if the political process stopped trying to look like a business process.   Dr Brian Keegan is Director, Advocacy & Voice, at Chartered Accountants Ireland.

Investec Europe’s Gabriel Ramsey explains why, in a low-interest rate world, there is no such thing as a free lunch. When we look back at the past year, since the start of the COVID-19 pandemic, one of the most striking effects of the resulting economic crisis has been investors’ retrenchment back to deposits. According to data published by the Central Bank of Ireland, private deposits increased by a record €14.2 billion in 2020. The most noteworthy aspect of this revelation was the additional €950 million increase in December, a month when savings traditionally fall as high-street sales soar. On the flip side, we have experienced a significant contraction in consumer borrowing, which declined by 4.5% over the same period. Household deposits Meanwhile, as savers continue to squirrel away their excess funds, the European Central Bank (ECB) dissuades EU financial institutions from placing funds with them. For the economy to reboot, for growth to take hold and green shoots of inflation to begin to protrude, the ECB is pulling all its available levers to encourage more borrowing and spending as opposed to saving and hoarding. Herein lies the conundrum. Savers are preparing themselves for the unpalatable scenario of paying their bank for holding their deposits. Banks have passed on the ECB’s negative rates to larger corporate and institutional-type depositors for some time. However, retail depositors have generally been spared the pain until now – but the mood music is changing with banks applying negative rates to pension accounts and retail clients with large deposits. It appears inevitable that all personal deposits will be next in line, with some banks changing their terms and conditions to allow for this eventuality. Where to now for savers? While we must expect the hoarding of cash to inevitably dissipate as we continue to see downward pressure on interest rates and sentiment continues to improve, the problem remains. With interest rates and bond yields remaining below inflation for the foreseeable future, what can investors and depositors do to preserve their capital while generating returns? Investec has provided award-winning investment solutions to Irish clients for over 15 years. During periods of low interest rate returns, we provide our clients with alternatives to deposits and create individual bespoke products tailored to each client’s needs. We provide transparent and straightforward solutions linked to varying asset classes and utilise high-calibre counterparties to optimise return while delivering high levels of capital protection. Most clients will be familiar with equities or interest rates and prefer a product where performance is linked to one of these underlying asset classes. Investec’s ‘Kick-Out Plan’ is a good example of an equity-linked product (EuroStoxx 50) that does not require exponential equity market growth to perform well. In fact, the performance of this product over the past five years, when European equities have remained broadly flat, demonstrates this:  Over 1,500 investors. An average term to maturity of 1.5 years. An average return of 6.8%. No capital losses to date.* * This type of product does carry risks. In the above product example, clients’ capital is protected provided the EuroStoxx 50 does not fall 40%. Investors are aware that they may be sacrificing full capital protection in order to achieve some return in a low-growth equity market. In this type of product, the level of capital protection and the potential returns are directly correlated (i.e. if a client’s main goal is capital preservation, they may be prepared to sacrifice yield in order to achieve this).  Meanwhile, some clients are unwilling to risk their funds and require an alternative to deposit, either for their personal or pension funds or company funds. In this scenario, Investec can provide fixed income notes with a medium-term maturity that offer a small fixed return over the period (e.g. 0.10% per annum) and the return of capital on maturity. While the returns are modest in this structure, they are popular with clients who have no immediate plans for these funds and face the prospect of negative interest charges depleting their capital. These investment structures are typically medium-term notes (MTN), which are debt securities issued by banks as an alternative funding source. The principal attraction to investors of notes over deposits is the ability to customise the various components into one instrument and manipulate the capital protection levels to suit. The credit risk of the issuer is a key consideration with this type of product, and Investec works closely with highly rated investment grade financial institutions to offer peace of mind to clients. These banks are generally very familiar international names but are often not accessible to a retail client directly and, therefore, provide diversification to an investor’s portfolio. It is important to note that although most notes are senior unsecured issuances, these products are not covered by deposit compensation schemes. Advice Investec’s investment solutions are classified as MiFID (Markets in Financial Instruments Directive) products and deemed ‘complex’. It is therefore vital that clients receive professional financial advice. Investec works closely with advisors to create strong value propositions. However, the suitability and appropriateness of such investments are critical and individual to each investor. In the current climate, whether you require a solution for your funds or have clients with lump sums on deposit seeking your advice, it is important to understand and manage the risk. If you would like more information regarding the bespoke solutions available at Investec Treasury products, we would be delighted to speak to you. Gabriel Ramsey is Head of Financial Products at Investec Europe.

A recent C-suite barometer showed a surprising level of optimism among international business leaders. Mark Kennedy deciphers the findings to explain why short-term optimism will need to be buttressed by business transformation plans and long-term investment strategies if organisations are to thrive in a post-pandemic world. A report detailing over 500 global C-suite leaders’ views on their outlook for 2021 during a worldwide pandemic always had the potential to surprise. Despite the current economic uncertainty, the most surprising finding was the consistent presence of optimism globally, with 71% of respondents assessing the outlook for growth in 2021 as positive. At the beginning of the pandemic, we witnessed resilience and consistency as some business sectors adapted reasonably quickly. For established companies, there was a kind of ‘muscle memory’ approach to the crisis that unlocked lessons learned and business continuity measures that were initially adopted following the global economic crisis of 2008. Despite the unique nature of the pandemic, businesses that previously invested in crisis management strategies appeared to exhibit more resilience. The state approach to the pandemic was also a big differentiator, as tax and legislative aid mechanisms created a profoundly different context for business. Countries in Western Europe mostly saw the benefit of this approach. In contrast, other parts of the world, such as Africa, received noticeably less business aid, which resulted in less optimism for the future. Business transformation plans Confidence in managing and mitigating risk during the pandemic was undoubtedly a factor in respondents’ forward-looking business transformation plans. Economic and technology transformation trends scored highly, with 90% expecting to respond to technology and innovation trends and 78% confident in managing upcoming economic trends. Technology transformation was the most likely focus overall for large companies ($1 billion plus), with 54% of executives indicating a more-than-50% chance of implementing technology transformation plans. While the need to digitally transform businesses has been on the agenda for some time, the crisis appears to have accelerated plans. If we take the retail sector as an example, the need to meet the demand for online shopping during lockdown has added an urgency to prioritising digital strategies. Perhaps more surprising than what was high on the list of business transformation plans was what respondents considered a low priority. While the travel ban during lockdown highlighted the vast potential to reduce carbon emissions, only 20% of respondents said they expected climate risk to have the most significant impact on their business: the lowest on the list. This figure is slightly higher among Western Europe companies (25%), suggesting it is higher on executive agendas in that region. However, it is less than 20% in Latin America, Africa, Central and Eastern Europe and the Commonwealth Independent States (CEE/CIS), and the US.  One potential reason for climate risk attracting such a low score is the current lack of bottom-line accountability. Despite the growing need to mitigate climate change risk for business sustainability, leaders often treat it as an intangible business issue. They see it as being driven by regulatory momentum rather than a tangible business goal to be approached in the same way as technology or new service transformation plans. However, climate change will become a matter of profit and loss for many companies over the next ten years, either because it will influence how capital is obtained and the cost of infrastructure, or it will become an opportunity to do more business. It is a similar story with cultural change, which scored equally low on respondents’ business transformation plans. As mandatory reporting on environmental, social, and governance (ESG) issues becomes more widespread in both cases, businesses will need to consider these developments in business transformation plans. What is driving the business agenda? While technological transformation is the overarching theme, how businesses approach plans is often driven by regional and industry factors. In financial services, a high level of regulatory and compliance demands in Western Europe and the US is the driving force for banks and insurance companies launching digital strategies to automate and manage data management and reporting costs. In manufacturing, meanwhile, technology transformation drives improvements in efficiency and productivity. These regional differences were also evident when looking at investment plan timeframes. Businesses in Africa, for example, are looking at short-term transformation plans to drive profitability. In Europe and Asia, investment plans are put in place as strategic building blocks for the next decade and beyond. While this is not surprising when looking at the maturity of business development in each region, it also reflects the lack of state aid available to prop up economies and businesses in times of crisis. A further factor driving the business agenda is confidence in a company’s ability to respond to trends. In general, the barometer shows that businesses are optimistic in their ability to tackle most trends, with 90% either ‘very’ or ‘fairly’ confident in tackling challenges involving technology and innovation. Businesses in Asia-Pacific are more positive in their ability to respond to technology trends than in Western Europe, with 92% confident there compared to 85% in Western Europe, reflecting the vibrancy of the region’s technology start-up scene. However, executives are less confident in their businesses’ ability to respond to some other trends. 28% of companies are ‘not very’ or ‘not at all’ hopeful in dealing with the impact of climate change. This lack of confidence in responding to some trends may be down to the fact that, as discussed earlier, it is positioned lower down on the business transformation priority list. A further worrying response is executives’ lack of confidence to deal with social/political changes and public health challenges. While many businesses expect both trends to impact them in the next three to five years, a quarter of respondents are not confident in their ability to address them. Western European businesses are the least confident in dealing with social/political, climate and public health trends. Less than 65% declared themselves ‘very’ or ‘fairly’ confident for each. Asia-Pacific companies were much more optimistic than their Western European counterparts in responding to public health challenges – 77% of the former looked forward with optimism. This regional difference may reflect Asia-Pacific societies’ longer experience managing epidemics, like the SARS outbreak in 2003. Longer-term investment strategies It is important to recognise that the pandemic’s impact on investment plans is critical in moving from a short-term to longer-term outlook. The change in business priorities and how business is conducted since the crisis started has given CEOs across a wide range of sectors a clearer picture of why making long-term and sustainable investments is a sensible business decision. Interestingly, female respondents were more inclined to opt for longer-term investment strategies. Female leaders represent less than one-third of respondents, but with the number of female business leaders rising, the shift to longer-term investment planning is likely to increase. It signals a much-needed focus on long-term business sustainability. This shift to longer-term sustainability was highlighted by the number of respondents who consider investing in sustainability initiatives to be a relatively long-term business activity. It was rated the fourth longest-term out of 23 activities, behind external growth opportunities, corporate strategy, and research and development (R&D). However, company size and sector had an impact. For manufacturing companies, sustainability initiatives are the longest-term activity of all. This reflects the transition away from fossil fuels and towards more sustainable business models. Sustainability is seen as a long-term activity in the financial services sector, but sourcing new talent, government engagement, R&D, and maintaining IT systems are higher long-term priorities. It is interesting to note that sourcing new talent is seen as a long-term priority, particularly as the financial services sector is in a phase of disruption driven by technology and new entrants. While this may suggest that the industry sees sourcing new talent as increasingly difficult, it may also hint that financial services companies still see themselves as people industries first and foremost. The responses from technology and telecoms companies indicate that sustainability initiatives are viewed as one of the shortest-term activities in those sectors. External growth opportunities and regulatory issues are the two longest-term categories for this group, which considers acquiring customers as a longer-term activity than maintaining customers. It paints a picture of an industry that sees high growth as the key to its long-term and short-term future and one that is less concerned about its physical footprint and managing long-term external risks when compared to other, older industries. Of course, as new EU privacy laws become even more embedded, the technology sector may see regulation as both a short-term and long-term priority. Company size is a further factor. Larger ($1 billion plus) companies are most likely to consider sustainability as a longer-term business activity, reflecting that they have the resources to build a sustainability programme and the more significant external pressure on large and recognisable businesses to address sustainability issues. Executives from small- and medium-sized enterprises (SMEs) still regard sustainability as a relatively long-term activity, but R&D, corporate strategy, and external growth are viewed as higher long-term priorities. Framing a reset strategy What can we learn from the barometer results, and does it help frame strategies as companies look to reset? Looking at differences as well as similarities can give CEOs some bell-weather trends to consider. Take the fact that the barometer portrays businesses as generally optimistic. This helps provide momentum and confidence for the growth outlook, even though executives will consider different growth strategies and action pathways. It is then a question of looking at that growth landscape in more detail, so plans are more robust. Another key takeaway from the barometer is that businesses across the spectrum are prioritising driving technological change in one form or another. This could be implementing technology to transform and improve productivity, reduce costs, capture a business advantage from, say, increased online demand for products and services, or using it to enrich and enhance marketing strategies. Again, it is about capitalising on specific trends within the business sector. One aspect of technological change to keep in focus is the need to mitigate risk. With increasing complexity in the data and privacy regulatory landscape, it is crucial that – similar to technology transformation plans – risk mitigation remains high on CEOs’ agendas.   With the barometer also highlighting a growing appetite for ESG themes, it is essential to keep track of sustainability issues – particularly when reporting. ESG reporting is still not a high enough priority for CEOs, but it will demand greater focus from a risk management perspective in the future. Also not to be overlooked is the opportunity for businesses to create strategic business advantage by becoming an early adopter of, for example, environmentally friendly solutions or applying ESG as a business differentiator. Finally, a more oblique takeaway from the barometer’s high level of business optimism was the importance of investing in resilience. As we saw from government and company reaction at the beginning of the pandemic, lessons of the last economic crisis appeared to have been learned, particularly on the importance of continuity and making businesses more resilient to shocks. There are many examples of companies achieving business continuity success, whether through the ability to add flexibility in the supply chain or rapidly adapt products to meet changing consumer and business needs. It is clear that, where CEOs take the time to fully understand business and regulatory trends and invest in forward-looking strategies such as resilience and sustainability, charting a course out of the crisis will not be driven by short-term optimism alone but a realistic long-term growth strategy. Mark Kennedy is Managing Partner at Mazars in Ireland.

Although significant challenges remain, the north-west region can look forward to better days ahead, writes Dawn McLaughlin. After one of the most challenging years in business, 2021 provides some cause for optimism in the north-west city region. The vaccination rollout across the globe gives us the best chance to get back to normal and truly get our recovery efforts underway. As a Chartered Accountant in practice and in my new role as President of the Londonderry Chamber of Commerce, I have seen first-hand the extreme pressures on businesses. Cash reserves are depleted, cash flow is becoming a major concern, and confidence is gone. After a year of COVID-19, the strains on entrepreneurs and businesses of all shapes and sizes are only increasing. The need for a government-led recovery strategy, developed in collaboration with business, is greater than ever. However, I also see reasons for positivity on the horizon. While the double blow of the pandemic and Brexit seriously affected local businesses, I believe we can recover and rebuild better in 2021 and beyond, given the opportunity and support to do so. One of the rare highlights of 2020 was the announcement of the Graduate Entry Medical School at Ulster University’s Magee Campus in Derry. Representing the culmination of years of hard work and campaigning, the new medical school, which will welcome its first students in September 2021, illustrates the strength of the north-west’s higher education offerings. In the new post-Brexit world, cross-border cooperation and collaboration will be as important as ever. In collaborating with our neighbours in Donegal and beyond, we are working to make the north-west city region a more robust economy and the best place on the island to set-up a business. An Taoiseach’s new Shared Island Initiative provides the opportunity to maximise the tangible benefits of all-island cooperation. Committing €500 million over five years for cross-border projects, we are making a strong case for investment to fund infrastructure projects like the A5 Western Transport Corridor, funding to expand Ulster University’s Magee Campus and other cross-border research projects. Along with the full rollout of the City Deal project, the Shared Island Initiative can unlock our city region’s full potential and drive the post-pandemic recovery. By giving our leaders and businesses the tools to rebuild and create a more thriving and bustling regional economy, we can attract new investment and create new, secure jobs. But, in the short- and medium-term, this will require serious commitment and courage from the Northern Ireland Executive, the UK Government, and the Irish Government to get our struggling businesses on the whole island through this rocky period and ensure that they survive and thrive. With institutions like Ulster University Business School, North-West Regional College and Letterkenny Institute of Technology, the north-west is fertile ground for world-leading research and development, attracting more students to our region. Chartered Accountants in the north-west should prepare for this regional growth, and look to our local further and higher education institutions to provide a stream of high-calibre students who might well be the next generation of Chartered Accountants. Dawn McLaughlin is Founder of Dawn McLaughlin & Co. Chartered Accountants  and President of Londonderry Chamber of Commerce.

Having read the 1,246-page Trade and Cooperation Agreement, which was agreed to “in principle” by the EU and UK on Christmas Eve, Cróna Clohisey shares her thoughts on the critical elements causing concern and highlights areas that warrant further work. In recent weeks, there has been as much discussion about what the Trade and Cooperation Agreement (TCA) reached between the EU and UK on Christmas Eve doesn’t cover as what it does. The deal, spanning some 1,246 pages, threw up some surprises and certainly left a lot for discussion between the two sides in the months ahead. The main areas covered in the document include trade in goods and certain services, energy, aviation and road transport, fisheries, social security coordination, law enforcement, digital trade and intellectual property. Certain big-ticket items, including decisions relating to equivalence for financial services, the adequacy of the UK’s data protection regime, or an assessment of the UK’s sanitary and phytosanitary regime were excluded, however. These three areas, in particular, are unilateral decisions of the EU and were never subject to negotiation. The TCA does not govern trade in goods between Northern Ireland and the EU where the Protocol on Ireland and Northern Ireland will apply, bringing a whole other set of rules – not least in customs and VAT. Implementing, applying, and interpreting the TCA falls to the newly created Partnership Council. This political body will be co-chaired by a European Commission member and a UK government minister, and decisions will be made by mutual consent. Several specialised committees, including a trade partnership committee, will assist the Partnership Council. Therefore, it seems that negotiations between the EU and the UK on their future relationship are set to continue long into the future.  In this article, I will look at the TCA elements that are causing concern or require further work. Trade in goods and customs The real test for cross-border trade between the UK and EU is really just beginning, given that traffic at ports and borders is generally quieter in the weeks after Christmas. Still, problems with paperwork (which could never be removed by a free-trade agreement), health checks and systems were reported by many companies in the first few weeks of the year. We have heard reports of large retailers reporting shortages on their shelves with retailers in Northern Ireland significantly affected given the customs declarations required for goods brought into Northern Ireland from Great Britain – a requirement that seems to have taken some by surprise.   The TCA’s chapter on rules of origin is particularly cumbersome and has already hampered, and is expected to continue to hamper, existing supply chains. The ‘zero tariffs, zero quotas’ headline celebrating free trade is not all it seems, particularly when only eligible goods qualify for this approach. Rules of origin determine a product’s economic nationality and where products ‘originate’ is the fundamental basis for determining if tariffs apply. The TCA says that for products to benefit from zero tariffs and zero quotas, goods must be wholly obtained from, or manufactured, in the EU or UK or be substantially transformed or processed in the EU or UK in line with the specific origin rules that apply to the product being exported. Minor handling, unpacking and repacking won’t qualify as sufficiently processed. There could be issues for goods not wholly grown, farmed, fished or mined in either the UK or EU.  The amount of non-originating materials (i.e. materials not originating in either the EU or UK) that a product can have in order to still benefit from the TCA differs depending on the product. The annexes to the TCA set out the product-specific rules, and you will need to identify the commodity code as a starting point. Some products allow a maximum level of non-originating content (e.g. 50% of the ex-works selling price), but again this varies from product to product. If, for example, products are processed in the UK, the TCA states that EU origin materials and processing can be counted when considering whether UK exports to the EU meet rules of origin requirements. There is a qualifying production level, for example, called ‘cumulation’. Another nuance is that some rules of origin require that non-originating inputs used in the production of a good must have a different tariff heading, while some rules require a specific operation to take place in the UK for the goods to be classed as being of UK origin. For certain chemicals, for example, a chemical reaction must occur in the UK. It’s also important to remember that when goods are exported from a customs territory, origin status is lost (preferential origin status can only apply once). Take leather shoes originating in Spain as an example. When the shoes move from Spain to Great Britain and are then shipped to Ireland, they lose their EU preferential origin status when they leave Great Britain. Because they haven’t been processed or altered in Great Britain, they don’t have UK origin. Therefore, unless the goods move under a special and complicated customs procedure, duties arise on the goods entering Ireland. The now infamous case of Marks & Spencer’s Percy Pig confectionery is an example of this issue. These issues add to supply chain headaches and give rise to hidden costs. The rules are undoubtedly complex and don’t suit the UK’s significant role as a distribution hub. Business travel Free movement of people between the EU and UK ended on 1 January 2021. Of course, Irish and UK citizens are still free to live, travel and work in either country under the rules of the Common Travel Area (CTA). Beyond this category of people, immigration requirements – including securing permission to work and restrictions on the activities that can be performed as business travellers – are now a key consideration for UK nationals moving throughout the rest of the EU, including UK citizens residing in Ireland. Similar policies are in place for EU nationals seeking to travel to, and work in, the UK. The CTA allows short-term business visitors to enter either jurisdiction visa-free for 90 days in any given six-month period, but there are restrictions on the activities that can be performed. Activities such as meetings, conferences, trade exhibitions, and consultations are allowed. However, anything that involves selling goods or services directly to the public requires a work visa. The specific business situations where a visa is required are set out in the annexes to the TCA. The environment In a first for the EU, the fight against climate change has been included as an “essential element” in a bilateral agreement with a third country. This effectively means that if the EU or the UK were to withdraw from the Paris Agreement or take measures defeating its purpose, the other side would have the right to suspend or even terminate all or part of the TCA. The TCA paves the way for a joint framework for cooperation on renewable energy and other sustainable practices, as well as the creation of a new model for energy trading. However, it allows both sides to set their own climate and environmental policies in areas such as carbon emissions/carbon pricing, air quality, and biodiversity conservation. Divergence from respective environmental and climate laws will be monitored, but this area is not subject to the TCA’s main dispute resolution mechanism. It will instead be governed by a ‘Panel of Experts’ procedure. Time will tell how effective this will be. Data transfers Many businesses rely on the ability to transfer personal data about their customers or employees to offer goods and services across borders. A company based in Belfast, for example, might outsource its payroll processing to a company based in Galway. In this case, any restriction on this data’s ability to flow freely would act as a trade barrier. The EU and UK haven’t concluded a deal yet to allow data to continue to flow freely across borders, but the EU has committed to a decision on the adequacy of the UK’s system (UK GDPR) by 30 June 2021. Until then, the UK will be treated as if it is still part of the EU on data protection grounds, and data can continue to flow freely between jurisdictions. If the EU doesn’t reach an adequacy agreement (although reports suggest that a deal is close), provisions such as standard contractual clauses may be needed in future transfers of data between the UK and EU. Financial services Currently, the UK has identical rules to the EU in terms of the regulation of financial services. Supplementary documentation published with the TCA states that the UK Treasury and European Commission aim to sign a cooperation agreement covering financial services regulation by March 2021. The EU has already deemed the UK equivalent for a time-limited basis in clearing and transaction settlement, while the UK has provided the EU with specific findings that would enable EU member states to conduct such business in the UK. Many other areas of the TCA will be digested and interpreted in the weeks and months ahead. Trade deals are predominantly about trade. Only time will tell if they go far enough in other areas such as environment, security and intelligence, or healthcare, for example. Let’s hope that in the long run, a deal is better than no-deal. POINT OF VIEW:  Barry Cullen, Silver Hill Duck Silver Hill Duck is a perfect example of a cross-border business and the various challenges posed by the new trading relationship between the EU and the UK. Silver Hill Duck is a duck manufacturing company based in Emyvale, Co. Monaghan, with operations in Northern Ireland and the Republic of Ireland. The company controls all aspects of the breeding, farming, production and packaging of its famous Silver Hill Duck breed. Established in 1962, it has supplied the best Chinese restaurants in the UK for the past 40 years. During this time, the company has expanded its customer base to include retail and foodservice, including a range of raw and cooked products. Barry Cullen, Head of Sales at Silver Hill Duck and President of the Irish Exporters Association, shares the background to his company’s commercial decisions. “The UK was historically our largest market, and we took some steps before 1 January 2021 to avoid the expected delays that were predicted at the ports. This involved setting up a Northern Ireland company with the appropriate VAT and EORI numbers, and a customs clearance agent to handle the paperwork. Silver Hill also had to source a warehousing partner in the UK that could hold frozen stock for our UK customers. Trading with our fresh retail customers was suspended for the first few weeks in January due to the uncertainty around delays at ports and the documentation required. The first few weeks of 2021 has shown that this was a prudent decision, as it has become apparent that the UK is nowhere near ready for the new trading requirements. There are major delays at Holyhead with hauliers unable to access the Irish market due to incorrect paperwork and a COVID-19 testing regime that has exacerbated the problem. It’s a case of learning on the job as our sales team feels its way through the many documentation requirements to send a pallet of product to the UK. For example, despite having done due diligence for over three years, we were not aware of the REX system and the need to be registered to self-certify our goods. Even though there are no actual tariffs, the customs clearance costs are high at approximately €120 per order, regardless of size, if you act as exporter and importer for the UK customer. This will make much retail business commercially unviable and will have a significant knock-on effect on small- and medium-sized enterprises in the coming months. There will undoubtedly be a settling-in period for the new trading requirements, but the cost for traders, hauliers and suppliers is as yet uncertain.”   Cróna Clohisey is Public Policy Lead at Chartered Accountants Ireland.

Do ultra-low interest rates justify ultra-high stock market values? Cormac Lucey shares his thoughts as US tech stocks continue their astonishing rise. Are we experiencing a stock market bubble? The question arises because of the startling rebound in global stock market indices since last March and, in particular, because of the astonishing rise in value experienced by US tech companies. Since their March lows, the Nasdaq has nearly doubled, the NYSE FANG+ Index has risen by 150%, and Tesla has risen to an astounding 12.2 times its starting position. The other factor that suggests we are in the middle of an equity bubble is valuations. The best measure of underlying long-term valuation is the Cyclically Adjusted Price Earnings (CAPE) ratio. It overcomes the weakness of the traditional Price Earnings (PE) ratio, that cyclically inflated earnings can make a cyclically inflated price look reasonable, by replacing one year’s earnings with average earnings over the previous 10 years, adjusted for inflation. The US CAPE is currently 35. That level has only ever been seen before as the Nasdaq bubble peaked in 2000. After that, the US tech index fell by three quarters before eventually bottoming in early 2002. On one hand, Jeremy Grantham, founder of the GMO fund management group in Boston, reckons that US stock markets are in the final stages of a speculative bubble worthy of comparison with the dot-com bubble, the Great Crash of 1929, and the South Sea Bubble. On the other, Martin Wolf, a Financial Times columnist, doesn’t believe that we are currently experiencing a stock market bubble. He contends that equity prospects depend on the future course of corporate earnings and interest rates. He concludes that, provided the former are strong and the latter ultra-low, stock prices look reasonable. There’s the rub. Do ultra-low interest rates justify ultra-high stock market values? And how long will interest rates remain ultra-low? On the face of it, the value of equity assets should rise as interest rates fall. Interest rates are a vital component of valuation models in general, and the Capital Asset Pricing Model in particular. When interest rates fall, the discount rate used in these models decreases and the price of the equity asset should appreciate, assuming all other things remain equal. Today’s interest rate cuts by central banks may therefore be used to justify higher equity prices and CAPE ratios. But John Hussman, a fund manager and former professor of finance, argues that when people say extreme stock market valuations are “justified” by interest rates, they’re actually saying that it’s “reasonable” for investors to price the stock market for long-term returns of nearly zero because bonds are also priced for long-term returns of nearly zero. “What’s actually happening today,” he argues, “is that investors are so uncomfortable with near-zero bond market valuations that they’ve priced nearly every other asset class at levels that can be expected to produce near-zero, or negative, 10-12 year returns as well.” I agree with Hussman: US stocks are in a bubble. While equities may appear reasonably valued relative to bonds, in absolute terms their ultra-high valuations today suggest ultra-low investment returns over the coming 10-12 years for those who buy them now and hold onto them for several years. However, just because stocks are in a bubble doesn’t mean that they are about to fall. As the then-Taoiseach, Bertie Ahern, said in 2006: the boom can get boomier. What should investors do? First, expect significant growth in short-term stock market volatility. The recent one-day 25% drop in the price of Bitcoin may be a straw in the wind. Second, the final market top may coincide with central banks allowing long-term interest rates to rise in the face of rising inflation expectations, perhaps in 2022. Until then, enjoy the boom getting boomier. Cormac Lucey is an economic commentator and lecturer at Chartered Accountants Ireland.