Building a successful practice can be a daunting prospect, but according to John Kennedy, it boils down to one elementary skill. Have you ever found yourself wondering whether your practice could be more successful? If so, you might be doing all the right work but ignoring the simple steps that could turn your effort into tangible rewards. At a basic level, successful accountancy practice owner-managers create the following: A network of high-quality and loyal clients they enjoy working with; A good income based on reasonable fees that reflect the real value of  the work they deliver; A good standard of living – not just financially, but in terms of doing things they enjoy; and A high-quality retirement as a respected and valued member of the community. All of this sounds attractive but is often far removed from the day-to-day reality of running an office. A more recognisable scenario might be spending your time on things forced upon you at the expense of concentrating on the critical steps. And when you do get around to thinking about how to build your practice, there are many options, issues and conflicting sources of advice. It is therefore unsurprising that many accountants never get to focus on the steps that are more important before the day-to-day issues drag them back. The simple truth is that some practices thrive and enjoy more success than most, while many never fulfil their potential. The latter instead get stuck on the day-to-day issues that overwhelm occasional good intentions to invest time in securing new clients or promoting the practice. In this new series of articles, I will set out the steps you should take to build the practice you want. There will be no theory or abstract ideas, and I won’t advise you to do things you don’t understand or don’t like. It’s simpler than you think Achieving success is not complicated. In truth, the key is knowing how to get past the complexity and focus on mastering a small number of straightforward tasks. When you think about it, the single most crucial step in understanding a new client is the conversation you have with them. It doesn’t matter whether they were referred to you by an existing client, heard about you from a mutual friend, or – less likely – found out about you from a branded pen. Almost every client in every practice decides to take their business there because of a conversation with someone in that practice. The ability to turn an initial conversation into a client relationship is the cornerstone of every successful practice, but this is where many potentially valuable client relationships stop – at the first conversation. Your success in these initial, and often unexpected, discussions will determine whether you get an opportunity to move on to a more substantial conversation. And you then need a series of precise steps that will build trust, deliver value and guarantee a mutually rewarding relationship. The standard approach is to feel that you need to move quickly, to jump to the things you are familiar with – but this leap takes the conversation onto ground that is not yet comfortable for your potential client. So, building a high-quality practice is about having a clear structure that enables you to move confidently from an initial, casual chat to a trusting relationship. And if one person can do that, then so can you. Much of the advice about marketing, networking, promotional gifts, websites and digital strategy won’t work for you simply because it wasn’t designed for you in the first place. Most of the existing advice was created to sell products to customers, but you are doing something very different. Building a successful practice is about building trusting relationships with clients, you need to master the ability to take the individuals you most want to work with through a sequence of specific steps. And, like most things in life, it’s easy when you know how. Getting the right fit What criteria do you use to select your clients? For many years, we have asked this question when accountants seek our help, and we do it to reframe how they think about successfully building their practice. When we probe this question, we are almost always told that the key is to get as many clients as possible. “So,” we ask, “you want anyone? Your criterion for a client is that they should have a pulse?” I believe your standards should be a bit more rigorous and for very practical reasons. To target the whole universe effectively, you will need a vast amount of money to promote your practice – not to mention an infinite amount of time to talk to all those potential clients. In truth, your pool of potential clients is much more restricted than you realise. Successful practices are built on having a clear focus on a specific, and therefore accessible, group of people. These can be people who share your interests, or they can reflect a specific aspect of your expertise, or who you are as a person. The right people for your practice very much depends on who you are. Building a successful practice is not a task exclusively for extroverts or ‘natural sellers’ or gifted networkers; if you are a quiet, reserved thinker who pursues every issue in depth, there are many clients who are looking for precisely those attributes. If you are excited, engaged and enthusiastic about the fast-moving opportunities of the ever-expanding digital world, there are other clients who want to have an accountant just like that. If a hobby or a specific interest obsesses you, that too can be the basis for building a highly successful practice. A thriving, fulfilling practice is one that brings together the type of people with whom you most want to work in a way that creates value both for them and for you. Connect in the right way For many years, we have been fascinated by the ever-increasing ways in which practice owners voluntarily waste their time, effort and money. We have seen expensive (and cheap) branded corporate gifts and a seemingly endless series of “networking opportunities” ranging from breakfast groups to conferences and sponsored events. Equally unproductive is the more recent phenomenon of websites and emails that are “done for you”, which say things that are never going to help you build the strong relationships that are essential for a thriving practice. If you find these enjoyable or fulfilling in their own right, then go ahead – but they aren’t central to building a successful practice. When you cut away the marketing theory, the promotional gimmicks and the pointless pressure of networking, you see a stark reality: every potential new client decides to work with you because you have an effective conversation with them. You get a new client by talking to them; it is that simple. And when you know how to speak to them in the right way, they will want to talk to you again. And by getting good at creating a sequence of steps, you are much more likely to get the clients you want. Focus on trust The key is to understand the structure of talking to someone in the right way. Much of the traditional advice is not the right way; it can leave you feeling uneasy – especially the bit where you are told that you need to “close the sale”. You don’t. You need to build a relationship of trust that evolves from both you and your client becoming increasingly clear on how to achieve more by working together. To talk to a potential client in the right way, you need to understand how to chat easily with them, and this means being wholly at ease yourself. You also need to know how to move the conversation from a general chat to one where they decide to become your client and to ask you to do a specific piece of work for them. When you understand how this works, it’s easy. The effective conversation structure was developed by examining a vast number of informal chats that evolved into mutually rewarding relationships. By following this blueprint, which is outlined in Table 1, you will create a system that works for you, that helps build a practice that makes you feel good each day and that delivers a steady stream of clients with whom you want to work. In this way, your practice will evolve and grow over time and so will your expertise, your reputation and your rewards. The structure of an effective conversation An effective conversation involves knowing how to listen and what to say. Prepare First you prepare a clear summary of the value your potential client most needs and a clear message to make sure they understand precisely why you are the best person to help them. Probe The most common mistake is to rush to try to convince your potential client of your value. The key to success is to become highly skilled at asking high-quality questions so the client convinces themselves that they really need your help. Present It is only when your questions have helped your client get clearer on what they need do that you begin to present your value and set out the way in which you can best help them achieve the success they seek. Propose Then – and only then – have you created the firm foundations needed to propose that you work together.  To download a more detailed overview of The Practice Builder Blueprint, visit  www.insightstrategiesonline.com.   John Kennedy is a strategic advisor. He has worked with leaders and senior management teams in a range of organisations and sectors.

Jens Gladikowski explains why finance leaders need to lead more than the finance function. In today’s business environment, the role of finance leaders is more demanding than ever. They are required to run their function at low cost, create incisive insights from a complex pool of data, support risk and control governance, and manage a variety of stakeholders. They also play an increasingly critical role in business transformations – initiatives that aim to change the competitive position of an entire enterprise. By addressing five critical tasks, finance leaders can play an essential part in helping such transformations succeed. 1. Identifying value Perhaps surprisingly, a significant number of transformations do not have a comprehensive case for change that lays out their scope, rationale and benefits. For example, business cases often centre on cost-cutting to improve profit. A more thorough analysis might suggest re-directing savings into strategic areas of investment, which may yield higher returns in years to come. Finance leaders are well-placed to identify and balance competing options for the transformation scope and help set targets. That requires a holistic view of the organisation and an understanding of how value is generated and measured. In the case of one Irish consumer goods company, the CFO led an initiative that comprehensively aligned the organisation’s value drivers with corporate targets. Key performance indicators (KPIs) and performance measures (such as outbound delivery accuracy, for example) were then linked to those drivers. The impact of the company’s transformation can be associated with those KPIs, benefits owners assigned, and success measured. 2. Shaping the organisation of the future The future operating model is formed during a transformation. Here, finance leaders can influence critical decisions in several ways. For example: The overall business model may change with new products, services and markets introduced. Through financial modelling, scenario analysis and risk-based assessments, finance leaders can influence these decisions and help business leaders make the right choices. Operating models define responsibilities and the relationships between organisational units. Finance leaders bring a pan-organisational view and can ‘broker’ the best outcomes from an enterprise-wide perspective. Recently, a global fast-moving consumer goods (FMCG) company assessed the relationship between its manufacturing and sales units. This required an evaluation of the impact of profit margin on transfer pricing and external reporting – the consequences of which were not fully understood outside finance. Technology enablement is at the core of many, if not all, business transformations. Finance leaders often have responsibility for IT budgets and, in conjunction with chief information officers (CIOs), need to shape the technology roadmap. This is best done up-front by assessing current, and agreeing future, capabilities. 3. Keeping stakeholders honest  It can be challenging for executives to establish the exact status of in-flight transformations. Here, finance leaders can use their analytical skills and professional scepticism to provide clarity and challenge. For example, cost-benefit projections should be adjusted as new information becomes available. Frequently, only the cost impact is assessed – and often with delays – and the effect on benefits is not always easy to evaluate. In the case of a large automation programme for an insurance company, benefits were still discovered post-go-live. The processes were deemed too complex to gain the full picture earlier, but a more rigorous financial analysis might have addressed that. There can also be a tendency among benefits owners to be conservative in their commitment to transformation targets. This may be down to a lack of buy-in or to avoid falling short of expectations, especially where they are linked to incentives. Here, finance has a role to play as a critical partner to drive ambitious, yet achievable, benefits targets. 4. Coaxing, connecting and communicating Significant research has been conducted into the future of finance. There is consensus that, generally, roles are changing from traditional scorekeepers to pro-active business advisors and (co-) owners of business decisions. Finance leaders in many organisations are already defining their purpose as influencers, business navigators and drivers of change. They often stay longer in the role and understand their organisations more deeply than other executives. The average tenure of a CFO in a FTSE 100 company is around ten years – twice that of a typical CEO. Finance leaders, with their informed view of the business, can connect different interest groups, communicate key messages and guide an organisation towards expected outcomes. 5. Leading by example A critical factor in successful transformations is aligned and robust leadership. This creates an opportunity for finance leaders to make a positive example of their function, for instance, by: Articulating a vision for finance that is aligned to the transformation objectives. Importantly, leaders must promote and live up to the values associated with that vision. Finance can influence wider cultural and organisational changes. At a national broadcaster, finance pioneered structures and performance measures that were replicated across other functions. Creating early success is essential in any project and realising quick wins is often possible in finance. One could, for example, review how reports produced by finance are used and eliminate those that don’t support decision-making.  Freeing up the best resources for the transformation. In practice, this is often a challenge – not many finance teams can release their ‘go-to’ people. Yet having precisely these people on projects is arguably the most critical driver of success. Finance leaders have an essential role to play in business transformations. Aside from bringing financial understanding and business insights, their primary purpose is to support and lead on the structural, cultural and behavioural changes that are critical to successful business transformations. To do them well, finance leaders must, therefore, lead on a lot more than finance. Technology: Easier than ever? A key challenge in a transformation is selecting the right enabling technologies and implementing them successfully. The technology landscape has changed dramatically during recent years: many businesses deploy cloud applications, automation tools are increasingly used, next-generation enterprise resource planning solutions have entered the market, and more end-user reporting tools are available. These developments can enable more insight from data, drive process standardisation and provide greater focus on business value, rather than IT. Yet in practice, many challenges remain and the promises of more value, more quickly, do not always materialise. Why? Most of the success factors of technology deployment are similar to what they were a decade ago. Enabling technology will not be successful if requirements are not precise and aligned with the transformation objectives, if the underlying data are of poor quality, and if change management is not addressed adequately. Typical examples for the first point are implementations where reporting requirements are simply a re-statement of the ‘as-is’, and consequently, opportunities are missed to create greater insight. Other challenges have emerged for newer technologies. Below are a few lessons from process automation:  The deployment of automation tools should not happen at the expense of process improvements (i.e. don’t automate a bad process); Implementation is relatively easy, and business-led innovation can be managed differently to traditional technology; and Software robots often need user rights to access transactions. Controls must, therefore, be adjusted. Technology choices can be bewildering, and their implications are a challenge for many finance leaders who are expected to understand the options and help govern and deliver transformations. Technology today is neither harder nor easier than it was – but it is different. Finance leaders need to work closely with their IT function and vendors to identify the value of technology and steer the organisation successfully through transformations. Jens Gladikowski is a Director at PwC Consulting.

In this digital age, data analysis is important to a high-performance culture, but so is trust. Teresa Stapleton discusses how to find the balance. There is a need for a data-driven approach to understand how a business is performing, but capturing, analysing and interpreting large volumes of data is a time-consuming process that can lead to analysis paralysis, slow decision-making and delays in getting work done.  When building a high-performance culture, the key is to find the balance between trust and data, where people feel motivated, engaged and empowered to do their best work and collaborate with colleagues to make the business successful.  Building trust For most people, trust in another person is based on knowing from personal experience or by reputation that someone is reliable. We naturally tend to trust people with a proven track record, who can keep commitments, deliver on time, be open and honest, admit mistakes, and speak up to share concerns. Trust is essential for a leader to stand back and give their team space to get on with the job. When a leader doesn’t trust their team, it inevitably leads to micro-management in order to keep tight control and minimise risk. This approach can be extremely frustrating and demotivating for an individual, and particularly for experienced, competent teams. Micro-management often produces disengaged employees, increased absenteeism and reduced productivity – ultimately impacting bottom line results.  When trust is lacking, it’s important to identify and tackle the root cause behind the trust issues. In some cases, it’s down to personality clashes where people have different beliefs on the best way to get work done. When this is the issue, it really helps to invest in team building exercises to promote collaboration. Managing a new team New managers are often in the tricky position of not knowing if they can rely on their new team while having to depend on them to be successful. This can create an anxious and stressful atmosphere. Taking time to get to know a new team, being clear on expectations and open about how you like to operate are critical to building a solid foundation for a good working relationship. Having the right mix of skills, experience and personality style is critical to the success of any business. This explains why many leaders like to build their own teams or bring people they trust when they take on a new role. However, more often, managers inherit people they wouldn’t have chosen. As a leader, it’s important to keep an open mind and give people the opportunity to prove themselves. As Ernest Hemingway said, “The best way to find out if you can trust somebody is to trust them.”  Situational leadership The most successful leaders adapt their leadership style based on the ability and level of commitment of the person or group, as well as the circumstances. Situational leadership involves evaluating what level of trust versus support is optimal. When managing someone new in a role or with responsibility for critical or high-risk tasks, close oversight is advisable. But, as the person demonstrates that they can perform competently, experienced leaders will adapt their style to give the employee more accountability and independence.   Remote working It’s increasingly common for managers to have employees who work remotely. This requires a hands-off style of management with clearly defined goals and KPIs and regular check-ins to stay connected and aligned on performance. While calls and teleconferencing are great for remote working, it’s still important to plan face-to-face meetings periodically to build the relationship and employee engagement, and to ensure they feel that they are valued members of the team.So, what breaks trust? Failure to deliver expected results, keeping someone in the dark, misaligned goals and priorities, competing for rewards and different personal values are often underlying causes. Whatever the reason, once trust is broken, it is extremely difficult to repair. The key to business success is strong leadership with the ability to set a clear vision, create high-performing teams and promote a culture where people feel trusted, valued and motivated to deliver great results.    Top tips for building trust 1. Get to know your team. Share your background, previous experiences, goals, values, expectations, and ask the team to do likewise. Sharing information on family or interests outside work is also a great way to identify common ground and build relationships. 2. Assess whether you have the right resources. Have you got the right mix of skills, experience and capability on the team to support the current and future needs of the business? Modify your plans, or team, to close gaps and set everyone up to be successful. 3. Set clear expectations. Agree and document clear, concise goals (specific, measurable, achievable, relevant, time-bound) and expected results. Ensure clarity and alignment on the performance management and rewards process.  4. Build self-awareness and collaborate. Personality profiling tools and workshops enhance self-awareness and provide practical support to help individuals, teams and organisations improve communication, increase productivity and drive results. 5. Stay connected and keep up-to-date. Agree with your team what you should know and how you want to be updated on progress and issues. Check-in to ensure the communication approach is working for everyone and adjust as required. Ensure decision-making authority is clear and protocols for escalating issues to the right levels are defined and understood (e.g. highlight bad news fast, no surprises, etc.) 6. Recognise and reward success. Take the time to thank team members regularly for their contribution and impact. Recognise and reward success and behaviour that demonstrates company values or best practices. Provide honest feedback on performance and coaching to drive improvements. Ensure performance is rewarded fairly and that your team knows they can trust you to represent them well. Teresa Stapleton is an Executive and Career Coach with Stapleton Coaching.

Companies are not only talking about sustainability; they are also beginning to act. Elise McCarthy explains how companies can support the Sustainable Development Goals through their business activities. Companies are beginning to recognise the role they play in creating a sustainable society and how, by doing so, they are also driving business growth and productivity. Many organisations are looking at the Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs) as a guide. Any company considering how it can support the achievement of the SDGs through their business activities should begin with these five starting points Understand the SDGs In 2015, the world leaders under the United Nations adopted the Sustainable Development Goals for nations and businesses alike to solve the world’s most significant challenges by 2030. Seventeen goals address the global challenges we face by moving to eradicate poverty, promote peace and equality, allow sustainable prosperity and protect the environment. The SDGs are built on 169 targets, which are measured against 232 indicators. It’s a good idea to review the targets and indicators when considering which SDGs offer the most opportunities for your business. Understand your business Looking upstream along your value chain, where does your company source raw materials and staff? How much of these resources does it purchase? This type of information will indicate where your company can make a change and have an impact. By taking cues from the SDGs, your company can set down specifications for suppliers and the resources it purchases.  Alternatively, your organisation could look downstream along the value chain. What products or services does your company make and supply? Are your distribution or logistics as clean and efficient as possible? Could you recycle goods? Would redesigning some products or services make a significant impact on the SDGs? Look for opportunities  There are business growth opportunities in the SDGs. For example, one report identified $12 trillion in savings and new opportunities by achieving the SDGs. The goals are not just branding for what society is already doing; they are goals that require new thinking and an appetite to see change. They are meant to challenge us to think about the world we want to live in, to play to our strengths and to use our power to make a change – even if it is under just one goal. If we all play our part, we will get there. Engage employees These days, most people are interested in sustainability and are trying to implement changes in their personal lives. Tap into that interest and enthusiasm among your colleagues by helping them to play their part at work. Show them that, as a leading employer, the company is also thinking about making smart changes to practices and procedures, and that it wants to involve its people in the journey. This user-friendly guide to the SDGs can help with internal communications and awareness.  Decade of action In September 2019, the United Nations Secretary-General called for more leadership and local action within countries and among individuals to meet these ambitious 2030 goals. Every day events – fires, storms, drought, waste mountains and growing inequality – are reinforcing the urgency of this mission. The clock is ticking but we excel when we put our minds to it. Elise McCarthy is a Senior CSR Adviser in Business in the Community Ireland (BITCI). BITCI has published a detailed guide for business on the SDGs.  

To promote sustainable finance, the finance industry must incorporate environmental, social and governance factors into investment decision-making. Orla O’Gorman explains how companies can enable investors to invest in sustainable, socially responsible assets. The climate crisis is the most impactful and far-reaching agent of change that we will see in our lifetime, the impact of which is comparable only with, perhaps, the industrial revolution. It will permanently alter how our society and economy operate – that includes our financial systems and how capital is allocated. We have already seen the world’s largest asset manager, Blackrock, asserting that climate change will be the focus of its new strategy and that it will reshape the industry as we know it. We have also seen the world’s largest sovereign wealth fund, Norges Bank, divest entirely from all oil and gas exploration. To promote sustainable finance, the industry needs to incorporate environmental, social and governance (ESG) factors into investment decision-making, supporting the allocation and transfer of capital towards sustainable and transitioning assets. Stock exchanges are at the heart of the global financial system and will play a vital role in enabling this transfer in an efficient, transparent way. Two-pronged approach As part of Euronext’s new strategic plan, Let’s Grow Together 2022, we have developed an ESG strategy with a two-pronged approach:  Sustainable practices (what we do internally); and Sustainable products (what we offer externally). Internally, our goal is to embrace the latest and greatest methods of sustainable working. Externally, meanwhile, our goal is to develop and support sustainable products and services for issuers, investors and the financial community, and we have already launched two initiatives in support of this. The first initiative is Euronext Green Bonds, which will allow investors to discover, compare and participate in sustainable investment opportunities and allocate capital accordingly. The second initiative, the publication of our ESG reporting guidelines for issuers, enables listed companies to communicate effectively to stakeholders about their current work in sustainability and assists them in addressing ESG issues with investors that will encourage them to invest in sustainable, socially responsible assets. The guidelines also provide a basic framework for ESG strategy and reporting. Looking to the future We hope that, by empowering issuers and investors with these products and tools, we can make the transition to a sustainable economy and finance a future of which we can be proud.  Orla O’Gorman is Head of Equity Listing Ireland at Euronext.

By Neil Gibson While the economic outlook for Ireland is slightly cooler than the last two buoyant years, it is not entirely unwelcome as the pressures of fast growth are beginning to become more visible. Here are 12 predictions for the economy in 2020. Prediction 1: GDP will rise by 3.2% Strength in the domestic economy resulting from a combination of job growth, real wage growth and government spending is projected to compensate for weakening global conditions. GDP is expected to be above trend at 3.2% in 2020. Modified domestic demand, which strips out the main distortions in Irish GDP, is forecast to grow at a similar rate (3.1%). Ireland will, therefore, remain near the top of the European growth charts. Biggest forecast risk: A global slow-down. Prediction 2: Employment to rise by 1.7% Job growth is expected to remain robust in 2020 with 40,000 net jobs for Ireland projected, a slight reduction on the 56,000 in 2019. Consumer and government spending will boost domestic businesses and strong migration will allow firms to keep recruiting. Biggest forecast risk: Skills gap and housing shortages prevent firms getting the talent they need. Prediction 3: Wage growth at 3.5% Wage growth has picked up over the last 18 months as labour supply tightens and skills gaps emerge in key sectors. The growth is also partly compositional with more hiring at the senior level, pushing up the overall average wage. Overall, average wage growth is projected to slip back very slightly from its 2019 level to 3.5% in 2020. Biggest forecast risk: Wage inflation accelerates as firms struggle to get the labour they need. Prediction 4: Consumer spending growth of 2.4% Despite signs of ebbing confidence in consumer surveys, the rate of job and wage growth should support a healthy 2.4% growth in consumer spending in 2020. With the national savings ratio at a healthy level and confidence largely restored in the property markets, fears over Brexit and the global economy appear to be only having a modest effect on consumer behaviour. Biggest forecast risk: Consumers’ confidence, which is already fragile, finally impacts behaviour and people choose to spend less. Prediction 5: Net migration of 40,000 Ireland remains a very open economy with fluid labour movements both in and out of the country. Net migration is projected to reach 40,000 in 2020 with Ireland’s economic strength and improved relative attractiveness as an English-speaking, cosmopolitan location further boosting inflows. This flow will continue to drive demand in the economy but will add to the pressure on public services and Ireland’s infrastructure. Biggest forecast risk: Insufficient housing supply leads to further rent appreciation which, in turn, deters migrants from coming to Ireland. Prediction 6: Inflation of 1.6% It is one of the great economic puzzles – how has inflation remained so low? With rising wages and a strong economy, most economic models would project a rise in headline inflation. A depreciation in sterling has helped keep Irish inflation down but high levels of competition may also have mitigated against firms increasing their prices. It may also reflect the application of new technology and data analytics as cost control measures. The twin conditions of healthy job/wage growth and low inflation has made it a very strong 18 months for domestic businesses. Biggest forecast risk: Inflation picks up sharply as wage increases lead businesses to feel confident about price increases and a wage/price spiral begins. Prediction 7: House prices to increase by 3.2% House price growth has slowed markedly in the last 12 months. Unusually, this is in not in response to a weakening economy but partly because of the lending rules that have placed a harder ceiling on borrowing. This has been a welcome outturn for the Irish economy overall, though it has not been helpful in accelerating the development of much needed additional housing supply. Our forecast is for prices to pick up slightly from the current growth rates, reflecting demand and affordability in the wider economy. Biggest forecast risk: Despite lending rules, increased cash investment triggers a rapid step up in prices. Prediction 8: Construction inflation of 7% Because of the strong overall economy, construction will continue to perform well with domestic and commercial demand remaining strong. In addition, increased levels of government capital spending are providing a further boost and, consequently, inflation in the sector is very high. Cooling global conditions may take a little heat out of the input and material prices but wages look set to continue to increase. Biggest forecast risk: An uptick in domestic building, coupled with infrastructure spending and further commercial development, creates a ‘perfect storm’, pushing construction cost up even further. Prediction 9: Housing completions: 24,000 Despite net migration of 34,000 into Ireland in the year to mid-2019 and a long-standing stock shortage, housing completion levels remained well below the required level at the end of last year. A moderation in house price growth, opportunities elsewhere in the construction sector and a challenging planning and regulation environment continue to work against a more marked acceleration in house building. Fortunately, the constrained supply has not resulted in an unwelcome sharp pick-up in prices. Biggest forecast risk: Sluggishness in granting permissions and significant opportunities elsewhere in construction lead to lower completion levels. Prediction 10: Tax receipts: 4% Tax receipts have been very robust across all major categories. Though corporation tax increases have made the headlines, income tax and VAT have also grown strongly, reflecting the broad-based economic growth under way in Ireland. It remains hard to predict tax receipts as Ireland’s fortunes have considerable exposure to a very small number of firms, but the forecast for continued job growth and healthy wage increases mean a very healthy 4% is our central forecast for 2020. Biggest forecast risk: Adverse global conditions impact the small group of firms that contribute a large proportion of corporation tax receipts. Prediction 11: Government balance at 0.1% of GDP That the Irish economy is back into general government surplus is both a cause for celebration but also somewhat concerning. The €175 billion debt mountain remains almost untouched, despite the sustained period of fast growth, making the rather cautious Budget set by the Minister for Finance both understandable and advisable. The forecast of a very modest surplus this year reflects uncertainty over the volatile corporation tax receipts and the long list of calls on government budgets across most areas of public service. Biggest forecast risk: Demand for investment in public services, partly driven by population growth, leads to higher levels of government spending. Prediction 12: Unemployment rate of 4.6% Unemployment has been falling steadily for seven years since its peak of over 15%. Employers are finding labour harder to find, though even at the 4.6% rate projected for 2020, it is still some way from being considered full employment. The steady flow of migration and demographic factors mean that the strong job forecasts will not translate into an equivalent fall in unemployment. Nevertheless, we project it will continue to fall to its lowest rate since 2005. Biggest forecast risk: A global slowdown eases hiring and with strong migration flows, unemployment levels move into reverse and start to rise again. (The predictions assume the avoidance of a no-deal Brexit in 2020.) Neil Gibson is the Chief Economist in EY Ireland.