Key market indicators are flashing warning signs and investors should brace for turbulence, warns Cormac Lucey Timing global equity markets is not an easy task. But when several separate indicators signal caution, it may be time for alarm.  This is currently the situation regarding US equity markets as President Donald Trump launches his much-anticipated tariff wars on America’s allies.  Signal 1: US unemployment rate In the past, when the unemployment rate in the US started to rise after many years of steady falls, it has signalled a shift in the economic cycle, often presaging recession.  The US unemployment rate hit 4.1 percent in February, up considerably from its April 2023 low of 3.4 percent.  According to BCA Research, the investment research company, there has never been a situation in which the three-month moving average unemployment rate has risen by more than a third of a percent—as is now the case—without a recession following. Signal 2: The US yield curve The yield curve depicts the differing interest rates that apply to government debt of varying maturities.  When shorter-term debt yields higher returns than longer-term debt, it is usually the result of central banks raising short-term interest rates too high.  Recession generally follows shortly after the normal state of affairs, where longer-term interest rates exceed short-term rate returns. This normal state of affairs returned last December.  Signal 3: US price/earnings ratio  Right now, the Standard and Poor’s (S&P) forward price/earnings ratio (which compares today’s price to predicted—or forward—earnings) comfortably exceeds 20. That is one of the highest S&P ratios observed in a half-century.  In the past, higher prices have tended to anticipate lower investor returns. Signal 4: US cyclically adjusted price-to-earnings ratio A significant drawback of the conventional price/earnings ratio is that when we compare a highly inflated share price to cyclically inflated earnings, the situation can appear okay.  The cyclically adjusted price-to-earnings (CAPE) ratio seeks to correct this defect by dividing equity prices by their average earnings over the previous decade.  This way, the CAPE avoids the risk that cyclically elevated earnings may make cyclically elevated share prices look normal.  The CAPE ratio currently stands at 36.34 times cyclically adjusted earnings. This puts current equity values among the highest ever recorded.  If return patterns observed in the past are replicated, we might expect real equity returns (after inflation) to come in just slightly above zero over the next 15 years. Signal 5: US price/book ratio  The price/book ratio compares the market price of the equity market to the book value of the net assets on the balance sheets of those companies on the market.  The US market’s price/book ratio is currently higher than it has ever been, even at the peak of the tech bubble in 2000. When we examine our five bear market indicators, we can see that they are each signalling caution, suggesting extreme prudence regarding equity returns in the near future.  This caution is only increasing in response to the trade tensions US President Donald Trump continues to unleash.  Signal 6: US trade tariffs I expect continued turbulence as Donal Trump continues to push the trade tariff agenda he unveiled to the world on 2 April.  We might hope for signs of compromise to lead a relief rally, but the upshot in the first instance has been upheaval in the markets.  While the tariffs may be the catalyst that has unleashed this upheaval, however, it is my view that they are not the ultimate cause of the recessionary/bear market conditions we are seeing emerge in the US.  I don’t expect to see equity markets bottom out until some time later this year or early next. Investor caution Equity markets do not follow a neat pattern. They often overshoot in one direction only to then overshoot in another. Just because six key signals are all neatly pointing in one direction doesn’t mean equities will immediately fall in value. In the medium term, however, it does suggest that future returns will be weak and that investors should be cautious. Cormac Lucey is an economic commentator and lecturer at Chartered Accountants Ireland *Disclaimer: The views expressed in this column published in the April/May 2025 issue of Accountancy Ireland are the author’s own. The views of contributors to Accountancy Ireland may differ from official Institute policies and do not reflect the views of Chartered Accountants Ireland, its Council, its committees or the editor. 

Julia Rowan answers your management, leadership and team development questions I am highly qualified with both general and specialist accountancy qualifications. I work hard to high standards and meet my deadlines. I get on well with colleagues and other stakeholders. Over the past 18 months, I’ve applied for promotion twice, but I have not been successful. Candidates I consider less qualified and experienced than me have instead secured both roles. What can I do to increase my chances of success? You feel you are being overlooked and there are several reasons why this might be happening.  One thing is for sure, however: if you want people to see you in a different light, you need to do something different.  My guess is that people expect high performance from you, so when you deliver, you may be “simply” meeting expectations.  You sound like quite a task-focused person—nothing wrong with that. Any thoughts below are intended to complement, not replace, your task focus. Your question reminds me of an executive I worked with: he shared the same high standards yet also found himself overlooked.  He always downplayed his achievements. For example, at progress meetings, he would simply say “done” in the catch-up as a way to express that he had completed a task. In today’s busy (and often hybrid) workplace, we need to be a little more intentional about how we communicate. “Done” does not cut it.  Marketing people talk about “selling the sizzle, not the sausage” and this may be something you need to focus on. It goes without saying that long stories are not needed, but something like “I sent that out on X date. Three people replied, I’ve followed up with two more and I discovered that…” gives people a little more insight into you.  Task-focused people can come across as impatient, which can be daunting. Moving up in an organisation involves winning hearts as well as minds. Here are a few thoughts about what you can do: Focus on building relationships. This could simply mean taking a bit more time for daily interactions, or it could involve strategically building relationships to increase your visibility. Find reasons to meet with colleagues in person. Share interesting materials when you can. Work on your interview skills. In particular, you may need to build up your achievements (Google ‘competency STARS’), not just in interviews but also during performance reviews. If you haven’t already done so, get feedback on recent interviews.  Ask your manager or others knowledgeable about your field to support you in expanding your skill set. For example, ask them to organise a mentor for you, bring you to higher-level meetings or place you on a project team. You can also attend to this yourself through reading, attending courses, etc. Reflect on how you talk about yourself. There seems to be a perception that, despite your high standards, you are not ready for promotion. Perceptions can take a while to change. Honest feedback from people who have your back may be the most useful input of all. Julia Rowan is Principal Consultant with Performance Matters Ltd, a leadership and team development consultancy. To send a question to Julia, email julia@performancematters.ie

The safe stewardship of the accountancy profession means tackling the challenge of career burnout and prioritising work-life balance for the next generation, writes Dr. Caroline McGroary, FCA Like many professions globally, accountancy strives to be a beacon of excellence, with our members balancing multi-faceted roles as trusted business leaders and gatekeepers of the public interest.  Bestowed by decades of attracting and retaining the world’s brightest minds, this status ensures the safe stewardship of our profession from one generation to the next.  As we sit at this critical juncture in the history of our profession and contemplate our future, we are propelled to consider some of the greatest opportunities and challenges facing our profession and the next generation of business leaders.  In this article, we delve deeper into one such area of interest—namely the attractiveness of the profession to the next generation and the importance they are placing on well-being and work-life balance (or work-life harmony, as it is now commonly referred to). To focus this debate, we explore the concept of burnout, a topic of major concern for those at any stage of their career and one that is firmly on the agenda of well-being teams across professions, particularly in April, during Stress Awareness Month.   Burnout and the next generation The International Federation of Accountants (IFAC) describes accountancy as “the language of business”. While this adage has been true for more than a century, our roles have changed drastically. In addition to providing robust financial information, accountants now assume the role of business leaders, responsible for actively leading and transforming organisations across industries and regions. Despite these changing roles, it has for many years been widely documented that working long hours, enduring stressful working environments and sacrificing personal time for work demands, is an “accepted culture” in the accountancy profession.  This was further reiterated in a recent study by the Association of Chartered Certified Accountants, which asked young accounting professionals about their experiences. Recurring themes in the ACCA’s Global Talent Trend 2023 report included dissatisfaction with pay, a lack of interest in their work, burnout and concerns about work-life balance and flexibility. This work further highlighted that long working hours—previously considered a badge of honour—now act as a deterrent for younger people wanting to join the industry. These views align with Deloitte’s 2024 Gen Z and Millennial Survey which found that work-life balance was the top priority among respondents who believe long working hours drive stress. Based on these insights, we must challenge whether long hours, stress and burnout is an “accepted culture” in our profession and if so, properly consider the long-term effects on ourselves, our colleagues, our profession and the next generation.  We have learned that burnout can prompt early-career accountants to leave their jobs, and even the profession.  Recognising the potential cost of this, we need to gain better insights into the experiences of this group of professionals.  The value of such research was evident in a study of close to 400 junior accountants published in Australia. Researchers Vincent K. Chong and Gary S. Monroe found that role ambiguity and role conflict led to job-related tension for these professionals, which in turn contributed to burnout. This subsequently led to reduced job satisfaction and organisational commitment, with the final stage being intention to leave the profession. The practical implications of this research were the insights it offered into the drivers and outcomes of burnout, and thus the potential means to better support employees and reduce turnover.  Learning experiences of trainee accountants Reflecting on our role as educators of the next generation of our profession, we also need to consider the impact of burnout on the learning experience of trainee accountants. In research conducted at Dublin City University by Professor Barbara Flood (a Chartered Accountant), organisational psychologist Professor Yseult Freeney and I, we uncovered some useful insights.  In our study of approximately 1,200 trainee accountants in Ireland, we found that these younger members of the profession reported feeling “exhaustion” on a regular basis.  This had a negative effect on their ability to attend lectures, and their interest in and enthusiasm for their studies.  Despite feelings of exhaustion, they were committed to cognitively engaging in their studies, however, as they recognised the importance of passing their exams for career progression.  The main concerns emerging from this research included the type of learning taking place at the trainee stage and how these experiences were shaping their view of the profession—some referred to “feelings of resentment”, “anxiety” and “mental drain”.  For Sinead Donovan, past President of Chartered Accountants Ireland, supporting and advocating for the next generation of accountants is a priority. During her term as President, Donovan had as her theme the “next generation” (#nextgen).  She stresses the ongoing need to understand more about the challenges facing younger accountants and their more experienced counterparts, who act as crucial role models. Donovan also expressed concerns about the findings of a recent study commissioned by the Irish Centre for Business Excellence (ICBE) Skillnet on future leaders’ perceptions, motivations, skills and needs. The study revealed that future business leaders are “stepping out of leadership ambition...to avoid burnout at the top”.  “I would challenge the view that leadership roles needed to be overtly busy and always ‘on the edge’ of stress,” Donovan says.  “While I acknowledge that people still need to be pushed and challenged, the key is knowing when this becomes too much.”  The former Chair of Grant Thornton Ireland sees an important step in addressing this problem as “assigning responsibility back to the employer to help understand the challenges facing these future leaders, provide adequate support, and in turn, showcase how leaders can exist, and indeed thrive, without burnout.” Tackling the ill effects of burnout on younger accountants will be “integral to the future of the profession,” Donovan says. Tackling burnout: the employer’s role Donovan’s view is supported by Gillian Bane, a fellow Chartered Accountant and founder of Well Work 360. Bane established the workplace health and wellbeing consultancy in 2023 having herself experienced burnout in her career post-qualification.  “I wasn’t aware at the time that I was experiencing burnout and, in hindsight, had actually suffered multiple bouts before it stopped me in my tracks,” Bane says.  She highlights the importance of employer support and understanding to help tackle the causes and effects of work-related burnout, as well as the stigma that continues to surround mental health in the workplace. “Employee support needs to be much more than offering employees coping mechanisms, such as mindfulness classes,” Bane says.  “It needs to be a combination of supporting the individual with ways of coping, monitoring work design and workload, improving team dynamics and leadership setting the culture at an organisational level.” Supporting resilience in the profession Chartered Accountants Worldwide (CAW) recently launched its inaugural global report into the resilience of the Chartered Accountancy profession—a groundbreaking study conducted by the CAW Wellbeing Taskforce in collaboration with The Resilience Institute.. This report examines the state of resilience and well-being within the profession, drawing on insights from a global survey of 697 Chartered Accountants.  While Chartered Accountants play a critical role in safeguarding financial integrity, the report found that their work often entails significant stress and complexity. “This research highlighted some of the key strengths of the accountancy profession, such as curiosity, adaptability, creativity and a strong commitment to serving clients and colleagues,” says Dee France, Wellbeing and Support Lead at Chartered Accountants Ireland and Chair of the CAW Wellbeing Taskforce. “That said, these strengths lie alongside challenges such as multitasking, avoidance, worry and sleep deprivation, which over time can reduce resilience, lead to burnout, fatigue and impact negatively on mental health.” The profession now has a unique opportunity to lead by example, cultivating workplace cultures in which well-being is not an afterthought but an integral part of daily practice, France says.  Taking action to reduce burnout There is acceptance that burnout is something that can be experienced by anyone, at any stage of their career, in any profession.  It is a multidimensional concept embedded in an ongoing complex psychological process, and associated with a range of consequences that—if not understood and addressed—will negatively impact our profession in the long run.  As accountants, we can clearly make the business case for why this topic is important and needs further attention. Equally, as members of a profession built on a bedrock of trust, integrity, competence and respect for others, we recognise our moral obligation to take action and encourage our many stakeholders to engage in this important debate.    To this end, we seek the support of the accounting profession and other professions, academics, training firms, well-being teams and senior leadership teams to work together to:   Better understand the concept of burnout; Explore the prevalence of burnout across organisations and professions; Seek to understand its root causes and effects; Provide tailored support and resources for those who may be suffering from burnout or “on the edge”; and Challenge the stigma that still exists around mental health and burnout, as well as acknowledging that it can affect anyone. Collectively, we as Chartered Accountants are in a unique position to change the trajectory of our profession when it comes to tackling concerns like burnout.  In doing so, we will continue to attract the brightest minds and empower the next generation of accountants to go forward to lead our profession in the future.  Dr. Caroline McGroary, FCA, is a Lecturer at Dublin City University and a Council Member and Education and Lifelong Learning Board Member at Chartered Accountants Ireland

Pinergy founder Enda Gunnell, FCA, set up his renewable energy start-up in 2012, playing a crucial role in laying solid foundations for Ireland’s sustainable future Groundbreaking energy transition company Pinergy has grown to generate revenues of more than €250 million in little more than a decade by doing things differently, and founder Enda Gunnell sees more room for growth.  “That’s one of the reasons I want to stay in this industry,” he says. “The Irish energy sector is going through a once-in-a-century change and, with this level of change, there is always opportunity.” Embracing change is nothing new for Gunnell, who left behind a highly successful career in practice to set up Pinergy in 2012.  He had initially come to accountancy “through the usual route”, he says. “I qualified with a B.Comm from University College Dublin (UCD) in 1989 and did the recruitment milk round, before being taken on by Mazars.  “That was the last year the B.Comm exams were held in the autumn, and I had had enough of university by that time.” Gunnell didn’t yet know what lay in store, however. “I started my training contract with Mazars and within a fortnight I was back at UCD working on their audit,” he says.  “I spent 23 years with Mazars and was involved with UCD in one way or another for quite a bit of that time. The university then became my landlord when I founded Pinergy.” Gunnell had played a role in helping UCD acquire a building adjacent to the Beech Hill Office Park and helped to develop a strategy to host partnership ventures with industry. “They had some spare space and that was our first office,” he says. Having started his career with Mazars, Gunnell later moved into consulting.  “I thoroughly enjoyed my time with Mazars. I got great exposure to a wide range of clients across different sectors, including large corporates, institutional clients and a lot of owner managed SMEs.  “I was partnering with owner managers who had 50 or 60 people working for them but had no one to talk to. I was that person.” Having been a Partner with Mazars for close to 10 years, Gunnell decided the time was right to try something new.  “I was probably looking for opportunities for a few years by that stage,” he says. “I had got a bit disillusioned with professional services and the timesheets, chargeable hours and so on. Some of the projects I found interesting were not the type of things to earn high fee income in the short term.” At the same time, Gunnell was working with owner managers, helping them to build their businesses. They were, he says, “good people”. “I found myself thinking I would love a chance to do that myself. I hadn’t really thought about what type of business I wanted to go into, I just wanted to get out there and do it.” Entrepreneurial start: the early days The year was 2012, Gunnell was 43 years of age and a Partner with Mazars.  “I figured someone would give me a job if it didn’t work out. I was open to that risk,” he says. Ireland was in deep recession at the time in the aftermath of the financial crash and Gunnell spotted an opportunity in the fledgling pay-as-you-go electricity market.  “The energy regulator was putting pressure on the electricity suppliers not to cut people off, if at all possible,” he explains.  “One of the solutions chosen was to install pay-as-you-go meters in debtors’ homes and collect the arrears through the homeowners’ electricity credit purchases.” Gunnell’s approach was somewhat different. “We used the same technology, but differently. We went into the ‘lifestyle choice’ end of the market,” he explains. “Our market was people who wanted help budgeting. We used the technology to bring the same customer experience people had become used to with pay-as-you-go mobile phone accounts.  “Ireland didn’t have a pay-as-you-go electricity market up until then.  “In the UK, 15 percent of the market was designated as pay-as-you-go and, in Northern Ireland, it was much higher than that.” Although Ireland’s electricity market had been deregulated since the late 1990s, getting a licence to supply power was not easy.  “They said they welcomed competition, but I wasn’t sure if they were really interested in small start-up players like Pinergy,” Gunnell says.  “We partnered with an existing licencee initially and got our own licence from within the industry after that. We are now one of about seven national players in the market.” The licence was just the start. Power supply is a highly capital-intensive business.  “I was very fortunate to have the support of a high net worth individual in the early years of the business. I didn’t have the financial wherewithal to do it myself,” Gunnell says. “At that time and for a long number of years, half my time was spent growing the business and the other half was spent raising the money to fund the growth.” Raising money in Ireland post-crash was no easy task.  “The banks became too conservative. No doubt they gave out money too easily to property developers, but they went to the other extreme after that.  “We did everything to raise finance, from placing ads in newspapers to issuing our own loan notes. It was real shoe leather capital.” Pinergy has evolved considerably in the years since. “The industry is very old-fashioned. Customer loyalty is not rewarded,” Gunnell says.  “The incumbents sign people up for 12 to 24 months at a discount and then jack up the prices. That encouraged people to switch to get a discount somewhere else. We decided to do things differently and run the business from the customer perspective.  “We embraced technology. We were the first electricity company to embrace smart meters.  “Customers didn’t have to go to a shop; they could buy credit online or on their phone and it would go straight onto the meter, while being able to see their consumption on an app.” Paris Climate Accord  The Paris Climate Accord in 2015 gave added impetus to the firm’s growth. “A smart meter is an energy efficiency device. The average home wastes 20 percent of its energy. Smarter users use less,” Gunnell says. “We were a challenger brand and wanted to sell less electricity to customers. The incumbents were in the business of selling kilowatts, but how can they help save energy when their business models are built on selling as much of it as possible?” Pinergy then broadened its offering by going into business with other energy technology providers in areas like micro wind, solar, LED lighting and data services.  Two of those partnerships in the solar PV and data areas are now Pinergy subsidiaries. Energy efficiency and ESG reporting  The next pivot came with the company’s move into the commercial market. “There is only so much you can do in a domestic household. We used our capability in smart metering to bring a new offer to the commercial market,” Gunnell says. “We were able to supply data on consumption along with green, renewable power.  “We help our customers understand their power consumption and why they are using more than you should at different times.  “Our business is about energy efficiency. We are supporting customers through the energy transition and providing them with the data they require for emissions and environmental, social and governance (ESG) reporting.” Commercial business now accounts for 90 percent of the Pinergy portfolio.  “We pulled back a little bit from the domestic market. The State was rolling out smart meters anyway. There was no point in us duplicating that effort,” Gunnell says. Next phase of growth: energy generation Pinergy is about to embark on the next phase of its growth journey following the acquisition of a majority stake in the business by Sojitz group, the Tokyo-based multinational.  Sojitz has acquired the holding of long-term shareholders, the Coates family. “We wouldn’t have been able to achieve our growth ambitions without our previous majority shareholder,” Gunnell says. “The Coates family have been phenomenally supportive of the company and the management team over the years.  “Without their support, we might not have been able to keep going during the energy crisis and we are eternally grateful for that.  “But, to keep going and moving forward in a capital-intensive industry like ours, we need access to funds that can’t be provided by a family office.  “The Sojitz group is a huge company with 25,000 employees and is listed on the Tokyo stock exchange.” Gunnell’s ambition now is to see Pinergy evolve into a vertically integrated company with capacity to generate its own renewable energy.  “To get involved in that in any meaningful way you need hundreds of millions of euros,” he says.  “Sojitz has been in Ireland for 10 years and already has a generating capacity of of almost 250 megawatts. “They are on the same wavelength as us and share our philosophy about partnering with customers in ways that make everyone more sustainable.  “We will now be able to start building our own generating assets.  “We will also broaden out to a dual fuel offering as well as broaden the energy services capability within the business.  “When we have our generating asset base in place, we want to move back into the domestic market.” The future of sustainable energy As Gunnell sees it, the future of energy is all about sustainability. “Energy providers have a key role to play in our sustainable future,” he says. “In the past, it was about supplying power generated by burning dirty fuel. In the future, it will be about minimising consumption of clean, green, renewable power.  “We have been embracing the sustainability agenda at Pinergy for the past 10 years. We will continue to support our customers through the energy transition and help them meet their sustainability and ESG reporting obligations.” Interview by Barry McCall

John O'Loughlin examines the global trade crisis sparked by Trump’s “Liberation Day” tariffs and their sweeping impact on EU exports and businesses US President Donald Trump’s “Liberation Day” announcement marked a significant and historic escalation of the US approach to international trade and tariffs. Exports from the European Union (EU) to the US are now in scope of Trump’s tariffs and some businesses will be significantly impacted by this latest round of measures. Immediate changes and impact  On Wednesday 2 April, the Trump Administration announced wide-ranging “reciprocal” tariff measures. President Trump invoked his authority under the International Emergency Economic Powers Act of 1977 (IEEPA) to address the “national emergency” posed by the large and persistent trade deficit. These measures, imposed on all global trading nations, apply a blanket additional tariff rate on all products imported into the US. As expected, the measures were applied on a country-by-country basis with the following key markets impacted by the following additional tariffs: European Union: 20% United Kingdom: 10% China: 34% Japan: 24% Switzerland: 31% Brazil: 10% Australia: 10% India: 26% South Korea: 25% In addition to the above, a further 60 or so countries will have reciprocal tariffs applied at half the rate they charge the US, according to the Trump administration. These measures are due to be implemented on 9 April. Further to these specific tariffs, all other countries not listed will be subject to a baseline rate of 10 percent, which will be imposed from 5 April and will be in addition to the standard rate of duty (most-favoured nation rate).  The Executive Order imposing the “reciprocal” tariff rates have specifically excluded certain product categories which will not be subject to these new measures. These products include: Steel and aluminium articles already subject to additional tariff measures;  Auto and auto parts already subject to tariff measures implemented on 3 April; Copper; Pharmaceuticals; Semiconductors; Lumber articles; and Energy and certain other minerals that are not available in the United States.  Regarding imports from Mexico and Canada, those that meet the US-Mexico-Canada Free Trade Agreement (USMCA) rules will not be subject to additional tariffs. However, goods that do not meet the rules under the USMCA will continue to be subject to the 25 percent tariffs imposed on 4 March. Trump’s tariffs have created a trade crisis on a global scale affecting companies across all sectors. These tariffs will remain in effect until he determines that the threat posed by the trade deficit— and underlying nonreciprocal treatment—is satisfied, resolved or mitigated. Other tariff measures As announced on Wednesday 26 March, 25 percent tariffs on imports of foreign-made cars came into effect on 3 April. The tariffs will impact cars from all countries with a value-based exception for the US value of cars covered by the USMCA. Additionally, on Monday 25 March, Trump also announced the possibility of a 25 percent additional tariff on countries purchasing oil or gas from Venezuela, with an implementation date of 2 April. As of yet, no tariffs under this measure have been imposed. Further to previous Executive Orders regarding tariffs on imports of Chinese goods, President Trump has signed an Executive Order removing the de minimis treatment for goods of Chinese and Hong Kong origin, effective from 2 May. This order imposes duties on goods valued at or under $800 which would otherwise have qualified for an import duty exemption. USTR Foreign Trade Barriers Report On 31 March, the United States Trade Representative (USTR) published its 2025 National Trade Estimate Report on Foreign Trade Barriers – a wide-ranging report highlighting foreign barriers to US exports, US foreign direct investment and US electronic commerce. Ireland is specifically noted within the report, but references are limited to commentary regarding alcohol labelling and reimbursements related to pharmaceutical products. European retaliatory measures On 12 March, the European Commission announced countermeasures in response to the US tariffs on steel and aluminium products, which it deems "unjustified".  Following a period of consultation, the EU has postponed the implementation of these measures until 15 April. These tariffs range from 10 percent to 75 percent with the majority of products falling within the 25 percent category. Additionally, the EU is set to announce further countermeasures on a wider range of goods. EU reaction On Tuesday 1 April, comments by European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen indicated that the EU is prepared to retaliate against the US, if necessary, in response to Trump's tariff hikes. “Europe has not started this confrontation, we do not necessarily want to retaliate but, if it is necessary, we have a strong plan to retaliate and we will use it,” von der Leyen said. She further emphasised the significance of the US-EU trading relationship, noting that their trade volume is $1.5 trillion and that one million American jobs rely on this trade. Von der Leyen reiterated that Europe is open to negotiations, stating, "We will approach these negotiations from a position of strength. Europe holds many cards, from trade to technology to the size of our market. However, this strength is also built on our readiness to take firm countermeasures if necessary. All instruments are on the table.” Actions for businesses In anticipation of these tariffs, companies have placed significant focus on analysing their own data and scenario planning for the impact of tariffs. With Trump’s announcement, businesses should shift their focus to tariff mitigation strategies and options, including customs origin, valuation and tariff classification. Duty relief programs should also be considered. It is expected that the EU will push ahead with its retaliatory measures and other countries may look to introduce similar measures. Trump’s executive orders also contain modification authority allowing him to increase the tariff if trading partners retaliate, or reduce the tariffs if trading partners take significant steps to remedy non-reciprocal trade arrangements and align with the US on economic and national security matters. John O'Loughlin, Partner, Global Trade and Customs, PwC Ireland

Organisations must reimagine their approach to data protection, mitigating risk and adapting to new regulations in a fast-changing environment. David O’Sullivan explains why As we enter the second quarter of 2025, the data privacy landscape is on the cusp of transformative change. Rather than reacting to headlines, organisations are now compelled to reimagine their approach to data protection, blending strategic foresight with a renewed commitment to ethical stewardship. Here, we outline our top 10 data privacy predictions for the remainder of the year, pinpoint in the key trends that will shape how organisations handle compliance, mitigate risks and adapt to regulatory changes. 1. Changing DPO role in AI governance As artificial intelligence (AI) relies heavily on quality data, data protection officers (DPOs) are crucial in helping organisations understand and use their data effectively. Given the overlap between data protection and AI governance, DPOs are increasingly managing AI compliance and governance. Both roles require the ability to coordinate cross-functional teams and adapt to evolving challenges. 2. Privacy by design and privacy-enhancing technologies  With the growing need for data in AI, protecting that data and transforming it into privacy-enhancing or anonymised formats is becoming ever more essential. These tools enable organisations to benefit from their data while maintaining privacy. Privacy by design is a principle-based approach that is set to become increasingly popular, prompting organisations to review their processing activities in depth, reducing risk and improving compliance management. 3. GDPR compliance frameworks Europe's digital regulations are complex and extensive. Privacy frameworks derived from the General Data Protection Regulation (GDPR) provide a solid foundation for building comprehensive compliance frameworks. These frameworks will be updated to accommodate new compliance requirements. 4. Shifting attitudes toward compliance We saw numerous headlines about data-related fines cropping up in 2024. Regulatory bodies, such as the Data Protection Commission, have intensified their efforts to manage complaints and breaches, putting more pressure on organisations. As consumer awareness grows, driven by global discussions on data privacy, we can expect to see more attention to data protection compliance. 5. International transfers under scrutiny International discussions will lead to greater scrutiny of data transfers. Recent findings by the Court of Justice of the European Union could significantly impact international data transfers, prompting organisations to reassess their practices. 6. Consumer awareness of data subject rights In Ireland, damages have already been awarded for GDPR non-compliance. While this hasn't yet led to a surge in claims, increased awareness will empower data subjects to hold controllers accountable. Organisations may shift their focus from regulators to data subjects. 7. Increase in cookie consent enforcement Cookies, often invasive and disruptive, are under scrutiny. The Data Protection Commission’s review of cookie compliance five years ago highlighted widespread non-compliance. Combined with the European Data Protection Board’s (EDPB) Cookie Banner Task Force and increased action by groups such as the European Centre for Digital Rights, we can expect enforcement actions to ramp up as organisations have now had time to implement recommendations.  8. Proactive approach to processor compliance As privacy programmes mature, organisations will focus on the entire data lifecycle, including third-party processors. The EDPB's opinion on data processors and sub-processors highlights the importance of controllers to ensure compliance throughout the data value chain. This will likely lead to more queries and demands from controllers to processors. 9. Board assurance on data protection With GDPR in effect for seven years, boards are increasingly concerned about data protection risks that extend beyond compliance, driving demand for assurance through audits and certifications, which are rapidly maturing.  10. Greater focus on transparency To empower data subjects, organisations must provide clear and practical transparency notices. Moving away from legalistic, lengthy and obscure notices to more informative ones will enhance transparency and build trust with data subjects. David O’Sullivan is Director of Privacy, Digital Trust and Artificial Intelligence Governance at Forvis Mazars