2020 has been a year of expected and unexpected change for the pensions industry, but even more change lies ahead, argues Elma Fox.When looking forward to 2020, the pension industry anticipated a year of change and development. We have certainly experienced much change, unfortunately, much of it from unanticipated events. We can learn a lot from our response to these events, which will inform how we deal with future changes and developments.When looking forward, we expected change to arise from the usual sources – legislative changes mainly from the EU, and both domestic and international political developments. Anticipated changes included:The transposition of the IORP II Directive into Irish law;The implementation of the European Union Anti-Money Laundering Beneficial Ownership of Trust Regulations 2019 requirement for a beneficial ownership register for pension trusts;Clarity on the application of the European Union Supplementary Pension Rights (Outgoing Workers) Regulations 2019;European Central Bank Statistical Data Reporting requirements to the Central Bank of Ireland;Guidance on, and increased use of, master trusts;Preparations for the increase in the state pensions age to 67 in January 2021;Further consultation on, and development of, the structure and system for auto-enrolment pensions for roll-out in 2022;The impact of a new government with potentially different pensions objectives, following a general election;The ongoing impact and fallout from Brexit; andPotential market volatility during the US presidential election campaign.These issues have, and will continue to have, an impact on the development and future of the industry. This will be covered in more detail later in this article.Amid this hectic period of change and development for the pensions industry came the global COVID-19 pandemic. The first restrictions and lockdowns in March coincided with a significant drop in investment markets. The pensions industry, along with every other industry, faced challenges and circumstances it hadn’t dealt with before. The immediate impact and response fell mainly into two areas:Providing essential services while facilitating work from home practices across the board. In normal circumstances, such a change in working arrangements would take months of planning and implementation; andEnsuring that benefits continued to be paid and assets kept secure while ensuring contributions could still be paid and invested.Immediate considerationsOnce the immediate actions were taken to ensure that services could be provided from homes around the country, several items had to be considered for the short- to medium-term operation of pension schemes and the provision of benefits. They included:The Pensions Authority’s announcement on 27 March and its subsequent update on 24 April. These announcements covered several topics, such as:o The prioritisation of pension and other benefits payments, and the collection of contributions;o Making immediate investment decisions, which was cautioned against unless necessary;o Dealing with requests to cease or suspend contributions, obligations to pay what has been deducted, checking contracts of employment, scheme rules (and, in some cases, legislative requirements), funding commitments for defined benefit schemes, and interaction with the Temporary Wage Subsidy Scheme (TWSS); ando Obligations on disclosure requirements (annual reports, member benefits statements, communicating changes etc.)The Emergency Measures Act, which didn’t mention pensions. The TWSS payment could not be reduced, so it was assumed pension contributions could not be deducted from it;Business continuity plans for service providers, employers, and pension schemes had been implemented and needed to be reviewed, updated and, in some cases, documented;The ability to hold meetings, both in terms of hardware/software and the power or authority to hold them. Meetings had to be held to deal with the usual cycle of trustee meetings, which covered administration, service, compliance, and investment. COVID-19 response meetings were also necessary;Employers’ and members’ current circumstances in terms of employment, remuneration, and contributions;Notwithstanding the Pensions Authority’s caution against making immediate investment decisions, trustees needed to consider the implications of the fall and subsequent rebound in asset values, the impact on their investment strategy, and the performance of the funds against their benchmarks and expectations. Were changes required? Would the funding of the scheme be affected? Was there a need to communicate with the employer and members? The results of Mason Hayes Curran (MHC) and Irish Institute of Pensions Management (IIPM) survey found that 71% of schemes had not adjusted their investment strategy as a result of the pandemic;The ability to maintain risk benefits for members and employers where employment or contributions are temporarily suspended. Insurance companies were supportive in providing cover in most cases; andThe information to share with members to reassure and assist them and how to issue those communications.COVID-19’s impact on pensionsThere are also longer-term impacts and associated economic and employment effects to consider, arising from the COVID-19 pandemic. They include the effect on valuations of changing and volatile liability and assets values, and the potential for lower contributions (e.g. the suspension of employer and employee contributions, reduced salaries, and/or reduced contribution rates). Other potential impacts include changed membership (e.g. temporary or permanent layoffs, reduced working hours, phased returns to work) or changed employer status, which may impact on the employer covenant, the ability to pay, and on benefits and pension budgets.The general outlook for pensions provisionThe outlook for the pensions industry, taking into account the changes anticipated for 2020 but filtered through a COVID-19 lens, leads to the following conclusions:There will be an increased focus on governance and risk management. The crisis may highlight the strengths and weaknesses of the current system;Timelines for IORP II implementation will be needed, given the number of other challenges in play;The changed economic outlook may impact the planned timelines for auto-enrolment. The results of the MHC/IIPM survey found that 66% of respondents expect the roll-out to be delayed due to the current crisis;Concerning the state pension age, employers and employees need to know what they are planning for. The current Government deferred the planned change from age 66 to 67 pending a report on the issue by a Commission on Pensions, which will be established to examine various issues related to the sustainability of, and eligibility for, the State pension; andIn terms of ECB/EIOPA reporting, one wonders if outputs or feedback will be provided to the Central Bank, when we might expect clarity on EIOPA reporting requirements from the Pensions Authority, and whether the reporting requirements will be coordinated.The effect of 2020’s expected and unexpected changesThe impact of both the expected and unexpected changes on the pensions industry – and the broader political, legal, and economic environment – places enormous demands on those involved in providing pensions to respond and adapt to changed outlooks for schemes, sponsors and members. Professionals should also expect increased governance and compliance standards, increased reporting requirements, and the need for new functions, including internal audit and risk management.The increasing professionalism of trustees to meet these growing requirements and expectations will also be a point of sharp focus, resulting in a need for upskilling, training, and qualifications for new roles and requirements – not to mention knock-on implications for service providers.The pensions industry has proven that it is resilient and capable of adapting to the changes and challenges presented by COVID-19. We must continue to learn, develop and innovate to ensure that we are ready to deal with the immediate and longer-term challenges and can continue to provide stable, reliable, and sustainable pensions for members.Elma Fox is President of the Irish Institute of Pensions Management.

The new auditing standard on estimates will have a significant impact on management as well as auditors. Brian MacSweeney reports.The revisions to ISA (Ireland) 540 (Revised) will have important implications for chief financial officers, financial controllers and management responsible for financial statement preparation and the determination of accounting estimates. Its impact may be felt outside finance functions where others contribute to the calculation of estimates – for example, valuation specialists, taxation teams or pension specialists. It will also give rise to additional considerations for audit committees recommending financial statements for approval.What are the implications?The new standard requires the auditor to perform additional understanding and risk assessment procedures over estimates, along with other new requirements. This means that:more time is needed from management to help the auditor perform these procedures;management will need to articulate their processes and controls around estimates better;there will be more dialogue between auditors, management, and those approving financial statements about the critical aspects of estimates; andthere will be a better and more robust audit approach to auditing accounting estimates in the forthcoming financial reporting cycle.Why was the standard revised?The preparation of financial statements involves many different elements, but the preparation of estimates is perhaps more complex than others. Estimates are monetary amounts (recognised or disclosed), which are a fundamental part of entities’ financial statements. They are subject to estimation uncertainty due to inherent limitations in knowledge or data, and as a result, there may be a wide range of measurement outcomes for any estimate. In forming estimates, management apply methods or models where they make assumptions and use data. They exercise judgement involving complexity and subjectivity when measuring the estimate. Due to the nature of this process, estimation is susceptible to material misstatement, and for the users of financial statements, they are the main focus.Over time, accounting estimates have become more prominent and visible in financial statements, garnering additional scrutiny from readers. This is caused by increasingly complex business environments (now made more complicated due to the COVID-19 pandemic) and the introduction of new accounting standards over the last number of years. The previous version of the ISA 540 standard was written before these changes and they, along with challenging audit inspection findings, meant that a new framework was needed for auditors to robustly audit estimates. In response to these challenges, the Irish Auditing and Accounting Supervisory Authority (IAASA) issued ISA (Ireland) 540 (Revised).What is the aim of the new standard?The new standard aims to:address changes in financial reporting standards and business environments that make estimation more difficult;enhance auditors’ professional scepticism, considering recurring audit inspection findings criticising the quality of audits of accounting estimates; andRealise public interest benefits through better two-way dialogue between the auditor and management concerning estimates.What is new?Enhancements contained in the new standard include:Enhanced risk assessment: the standard requires a robust risk assessment of estimates. The aim is to heighten auditors’ understanding of processes and controls around the identification of estimates and the determination of the related monetary amounts. This risk assessment is performed at a granular level and focuses on the models, assumptions, and data used to determine the estimate. The assessment is made with reference to inherent risk factors, including the complexity of the estimate, its subjectivity, and estimation uncertainty.Scalability of testing approach: the testing approach options in the old ISA 540 are maintained. These include testing management’s calculations of the estimate, developing an independent estimate, or using events after the year-end as audit evidence for the estimate. However, the new standard focuses on aligning the level of procedures performed to the assessed risk. This gives the standard scalability, where the level of audit effort is dictated by the complexity and risk associated with the estimate.Professional scepticism: ISA (Ireland) 540 (Revised) has several provisions designed to enhance the application of professional scepticism. These include:o A requirement to design and perform further audit procedures in a manner that gives more focus to evidence that may be contradictory.o A requirement to evaluate the audit evidence obtained regarding the accounting estimates, including both corroborative and contradictory audit evidence.o Changing the language in the standard to use purposeful words like 'challenge', 'question', and 'reconsider', thus reinforcing the importance of exercising professional scepticism.Disclosures: there are enhanced requirements to assess whether the estimate disclosures are “reasonable”.Communication and representations: there are new requirements to consider when communicating with those charged with governance. There is a requirement to request written representations regarding the reasonableness of methods, significant assumptions, and the data used.What is the impact on management?Table 1 sets out the key changes required by ISA (Ireland) 540 Revised and their impact on auditors and management. This summary was prepared by Chartered Professional Accountants Canada and was adopted by the IAASB (International Auditing and Assurance Standards Board) for its client briefing document dated November 2019.What happens after implementation? The standard-setters intend to undertake a post-implementation review after the effective date of ISA (Ireland) 540 (Revised) to see if the revised standard has achieved its intended objective. They will focus on whether the standard is sufficiently scalable and whether it enhances the exercise of professional scepticism.First impressionsHaving read the new standard and prepared illustrative audit work papers to see it in practice, it is clear that this is a significant change to how auditors will approach the audit of estimates. The key message is that auditors will need to prepare early to perform a detailed understanding and risk assessments procedures. Management will have more to do to help the auditor in their risk assessments, but early communication and engagement between the auditor and management will ensure successful adoption.In addition to the above, due to the COVID-19 pandemic, developing estimates for expected credit losses, going concern analysis, and related disclosures, in particular, is more challenging. A focus on the audit of estimates is therefore paramount. Overall, in a financial reporting environment that is evolving due to changing business environments and accounting frameworks, ISA (Ireland) 540 (Revised) provides audit practitioners with a good basis to audit estimates and to serve the public interest by fostering audit quality.  Brian MacSweeney ACA is a Director at KPMG Ireland.

Brendan O’Hora reports on the findings of the 2020 All-Member Survey.For more than a decade, Chartered Accountants Ireland has surveyed its members every two years to track levels of satisfaction and identify their needs and perspectives. This summer’s survey was markedly different. Reflecting the challenging social and economic circumstances across the island and beyond, this survey focused on members’ experiences of COVID-19 and how members have been coping in their business and personal lives, while also recording views on the Institute’s performance in serving its members.The survey was conducted in June by independent research agency, Coyne Research, and built on other flash surveys undertaken in the wake of the lockdown. All members who had provided an email address to the Institute were invited to participate. Almost 1,900 members completed the survey, a 10% increase on the last survey in 2018. This is much appreciated as this level of participation helps us build a much more accurate picture of member experience.The survey was launched just a month before the publication of the Institute’s new strategy, Strategy24. Many issues of importance that emerged in members’ responses also resonate through our new strategy, reflecting the level of member contribution to the strategy development process.Impact of COVID-19 on membersMembership of Chartered Accountants Ireland means being part of a network of professionals, working in support of each other. Therefore, it is now vitally important that the Institute understands how members have been managing during the COVID-19 crisis so we can respond with new initiatives and services.The survey included several questions assessing the impact of the pandemic on every aspect of members’ lives, and members engaged openly and candidly with these questions.Economic uncertainty is evident in every part of the economy, and it is clear that our members are in no way inured. One in five members expect some changes to their current role because of the pandemic.WellbeingWhen questioned as to the impact of COVID-19 on various aspects of members’ daily lives, 40% responded that it had had a negative effect on their physical health. In contrast, one in three members claimed that the pandemic led to a positive impact on their physical health. More than half of members report that their mental health has been negatively impacted.Around half of all members report that COVID-19 has had a negative impact on their financial security, with members in practice more likely to agree with this statement.CA SupportAwareness of the Institute’s member support service, CA Support, stands at 80% with awareness higher among males and those aged over 40. Of the services provided by CA Support, respondents indicated that they were most interested in accessing support in the areas of mental health and resilience, retirement planning, and financial planning.Impact of COVID-19 on firmsThe survey asked members to compare the financial position of their business or practice before the start of the pandemic with the present day, and the contrast was stark. For members in business, 83% said that their organisations had been either stable or expanding before COVID-19, dropping sharply to 38% post-lockdown. For firms in practice, the contraction was more acute. 93% of members in practice considered their firms to be stable or growing at the start of the year, but 63% changed their description post-COVID-19 to being somewhat impacted or struggling.Over half of all members stated that returning staff safely to work is one of the top three challenges facing their business/organisation over the next 18 months. A higher proportion of members in practice were concerned with liquidity/cashflow (45%) as well as meeting spikes in demand (25%).Economic recoveryMembers were also asked to estimate the length of time before our economies return to 2019/early 2020 levels. The average answer was just under two years, subject to subsequent twists and turns in the public health crisis.Satisfaction with the InstituteLooking at Institute-related results, the standard benchmark questions on satisfaction and relevance were once again included. Satisfaction with membership of Chartered Accountants Ireland remains high and consistent with 2018, and there has been a 4% decrease in those claiming to be dissatisfied. Results were consistent across business and practice, though Republic of Ireland satisfaction levels surpassed their Northern Ireland equivalent.The perceived relevance of membership scored highly, and scores for lower relevance dropped by nearly 10%. More than two in five members said that membership represented good or very good value for money, similar to 2018.In terms of the relevance of communications received from the Institute, encouragingly two in three members described themselves as satisfied. This represents an increase of 24% since 2018, with those dissatisfied with how we communicate down significantly by -14%.Net promoter scoreThe net promoter score (NPS) is a widely recognised measure to assess members’ likelihood to recommend the qualification. This is an exacting metric, and even for brand leaders, NPS sometimes tends towards single-digit results. It was, therefore, encouraging to see the Institute’s NPS increase to +44%, an uptick of 3% since 2018, with over half of members regarded as promoters. NPS ratings from members in business shaded those in practice, while the Republic of Ireland figures slightly exceeded the Northern Ireland equivalent.Members servicesMembers were invited to rate a range of Institute services based on their experience and degree of satisfaction. Accountancy Ireland and our suite of electronic newsletters ranked most highly, but the standout results were for the new suite of webinars and online CPD, developed and launched to satisfy members’ professional training requirements during the lockdown. The new COVID-19 hub on the Institute’s website also received a strong reception from members.The 2020 All-Member Survey points to a profession that is coming to terms with the harshest economic and personal challenges in decades and is already planning for future recovery. Over recent months, teams across the Institute have responded rapidly to member needs with new online professional development platforms, consistently effective and targeted advocacy and representation on behalf of members, and enhanced communications and webinars.Chartered Accountants Ireland is of its members and for its members, so member satisfaction is the most critical measure of our performance. Member satisfaction remains consistent with 2018, and there is also a high level of satisfaction with communications to members. Our recently launched Strategy24 will help us grow these figures even further, with a strong focus on optimising member experience and further strengthening the relevance and reach of the Institute’s voice. While the overall research findings are very positive, specific challenges remain for individual segments of our membership, and these will receive a particular focus. The Leadership Team has begun to address some of the immediate issues, and we will work with the Members Board to bring these insights into the 2021 business plan and our implementation of Strategy24.Brendan O’Hora is Director, Members, at Chartered Accountants Ireland.

Chartered Accountants in practice have had a lot to contend with over the last six months. Here, they share the lessons learned from the challenges faced during the COVID-19 pandemic.Chartered Accountants and their skills have been at the forefront of business during this pandemic, ensuring that businesses across the island of Ireland – including their own – continue to stay afloat. In this feature, three Chartered Accountants describe what challenges they and their clients have faced during the COVID-19 crisis.Members in practice, Conor Woods from Woods & Partners, James Kelliher from Kelliher O’Shea and Wendy Merrigan from Williams Merrigan share their insights on current business challenges, the lessons they have learned during the pandemic and what the future holds for SMEs. Meeting adversity with growthConor Woods FCA, Managing Partner at Woods & Partners, outlines how technology and innovation have enabled him and his staff to keep the business running through the COVID-19 crisis.QHow has your business been impacted by the COVID-19 crisis?Initially, it was a shock to the system for everyone. However, we have invested heavily in our cloud platform over the last five years, so we were able to adapt to remote working relatively seamlessly. The greatest initial challenge was not having a ‘physical' closing meeting with our clients nor being able to have team meetings in the same format we were once familiar with. What is the most challenging aspect of leading a practice in this environment?On-boarding new staff is the most challenging aspect of growing a firm in the present environment. We have hired 12 staff in the last three months and it's challenging to integrate, train and induct them into an organisation where ‘normal office conditions’ do not prevail. The strength of our profession is in the quality of the training that our articled clerks receive in practice, so we must ensure that this training continues to the highest of standards in the current social distancing climate. We have been lucky our size enables us to continue this training which has proven to be a key attraction for high calibre graduates to come to our firm.What business changes have you made to ensure that you continue to deliver for your clients?Due to growth across our practice, we have recently opened new offices in Laois and Cavan to meet client and market needs in these locations. Clients want premium advisory, audit and taxation services close to their businesses without having to travel to Dublin and so we see this as a key opportunity. Additionally, more and more of our staff do not want to commute, so having regional locations helps us with staff retention and attracts a high calibre of staff from the city and larger firms. If you could make one change to the supports available for your clients, what would it be?We would like to see an expansion to the Local Enterprise Office Business Continuity Voucher scheme for another six months for SMEs. This proved to be a hugely supportive and popular scheme for them. What does the future hold for small- and medium-sized accountancy practices, in your opinion?The future is bright and exciting for firms who innovate and continue to re-invest in people and technology. It’s critical that firms maintain financial liquidity and strength to enable them to hire the best and invest in technology within their practices. The firms that have strong technology platforms have found it easier to adjust to the enforced changes in work patterns. I see smaller firms engaging in more collaboration with each other due to increased regulation and, perhaps, more consolidation in this space. As a practice leader, what has been your most important lesson to date?It’s just as important to work on the business as it is to work ‘in the business’. Practices must manage working capital, lock up, and liquidity relentlessly. This is now more important than ever before. This can be difficult as our clients, may want more leniency in terms of credit, support, and time in the present environment, so there is a fine balance to be achieved. Managing client expectations and our own business performance is a pivotal aspect of our own practice strategy.Adapt and be flexibleJames Kelliher FCA, Partner in Kelliher O’Shea, Chartered Accountants, has found that flexibility with staff and clients has been key to navigating business changes that have cropped up because of the pandemic. How has your business been impacted by the COVID-19 crisis?As a small accountancy practice, we offer a wide range of services. We provide bookkeeping services to a number of businesses in the hospitality sector which was impacted severely. We have a diverse client range across many sectors from hospitality, media, motor trade, retail, nursing homes and agriculture who all had various challenges and continue to do so as we work through the crisis. Our workload, in terms of dealing with client queries, increased dramatically, especially around the introduction of the Temporary Wage Subsidy Scheme (TWSS) and other government supports. What is the most challenging aspect of leading a practice in this environment?There has been a level of disruption to both the practice and client business which has had a knock-on effect on the timing and delivery of work. The business disruption will have an impact on filing deadlines being met later in 2020 and this will be an issue for our staff and clients in an already demanding year. What business changes have you made to ensure that you continue to deliver for your clients?Although our office was closed for a period, we were still very much accessible throughout for our clients by phone, email and Zoom/Microsoft Teams. We also facilitated some of our staff with young children to work shorter hours. Our audits have been conducted remotely this year; previously, we would have carried out the fieldwork for our larger clients on-site. We have had to be flexible with our clients and cognisant of the fact that some of their finance personnel were also working shorter hours with an enhanced focus on their short-term cashflow management.If you could make one change to the supports available for your clients, what would it be?For many small businesses, funding during the current crisis has not been easily accessible. While the TWSS and Restart Grant were successful, many small businesses failed to secure additional short- or medium-term facilities from their lending institutions as a result of the uncertainty surrounding the crisis and the impact it was having on current trading levels. We would have liked to have seen a simplified, low-interest government loan or capital grant made available for PPE expenditure, which was significant for many SMEs in reopening. What does the future hold for small- and medium-sized accountancy practices, in your opinion?We believe there will be further consolidation within the industry among small- and medium-sized practices. This trend had started pre-COVID-19. The talent pool for small practices was at an all-time low because of the larger firms attracting the majority of graduates to the cities. Consolidation should enable practices to attract better people and possibly offer a more attractive work-life balance that people crave. Smaller practices need to continue to invest in technology and their people, and use technology to move towards a paperless environment. The current crisis has highlighted how reliant we are on technology.As a practice leader, what has been your most important lesson to date?The ability to adapt and be flexible is key to leading our practice and being able to advise our clients. This has never been more prevalent than in the current COVID-19 climate where guidelines that impacted on both decisions that needed to be made for the practice, as well as advice given to our clients, were evolving on a weekly and sometimes daily basis.Focus on positive actionWendy Merrigan FCA, Co-Founder and Director at Williams Merrigan, has seen the workload in her practice increase in the last six months, but believes opportunities are there for accountants who concentrate on serving clients’ needs.How has your business been impacted by the COVID-19 crisis?We have a small team and the level of queries regarding COVID-19 issues has been overwhelming. This has led to a slower turnaround time for some work which has its own impact as we approach large filing deadlines later this year. While working remotely was used by our practice for several years, COVID-19 meant some staff no longer had childcare facilities and had to home-school children for a period. Ensuring staff did not take on too much work and balanced their homelife with their need to provide ongoing quality, timely service to clients, specifically regarding tax filing return deadlines, was a specific challenge. Right now, it is unknown what will occur during winter months regarding schools and this is stressful for staff. What is the most challenging aspect of leading a practice in this environment?Staying on top of the ‘normal’ workload as well as managing client queries. A serious challenge has been planning and scheduling work while also finding time to keep up-to-date with Government and legislative changes as they arise to ensure clients are kept informed. This increased workload has meant I have had less time as I would like with staff members.What business changes have you made to ensure that you continue to deliver for your clients?Responding to email and telephone queries proved highly challenging. For some queries that arose, it became more practical to share information generally by way of email or, in certain circumstances, on social platforms. This has meant less time repeating answers to queries that many clients have. Sharing knowledge with other accountants and making new connections to discuss the impact of COVID-19 on our profession has been beneficial also.If you could make one change to the supports available for your clients, what would it be?Grants have been made available to review cashflows and financing, yet necessary ongoing compliance costs for accountancy services were not included. I would have granted subsidies to businesses to allow their usual monthly or yearly fee to be included in the grants awarded. Ensuring clients have tax clearance for subsidies and grants mean accountancy services were vital for all businesses yet not provided for.What does the future hold for small- and medium-sized accountancy practices, in your opinion?Regardless of size, I believe we are fortunate to have a qualification whereby our services, expertise and advice are continuously sought and needed. Our practice is small yet, as I mentioned, there are always opportunities to be found when you are laser-focused on serving client’s needs. I believe services will always be sought from proactive accountants with good communication skills.As a practice leader, what has been your most important lesson to date?I've realised uncertainty can be positive and have learned to let go of the need for control. Inspiration and creativity come from not being rigid in views or practices. It's important to move with the times and learn to embrace new working environments and social networking platforms to serve client needs efficiently. Above all, the most important lesson has been the realisation that uncertainty is neutral; we can continue to focus on positive action.

Rachel Hussey asks whether gender quotas really do their job in bringing equality to the workforce and boards.Sometimes change needs help and, in the world of business, what gets measured gets done. So, like many advocates for change, I joined the debate as to the merits of gender quotas or targets as an effective means to address the lack of gender balance on boards and at senior decision-making tables. Quotas provoke strong responses, both in favour and against. Unlike most debates, however, we are all agreed on where we want to go, we just disagree on how to get there. There is a subtle difference between quotas and targets. Quotas are generally mandated by an external force, such as government or regulatory bodies, and they operate on a pass/fail basis with penalties for failure to reach the quota. Targets are voluntary in nature and are typically set internally by the business or industry. While there may be internal or external peer pressure to reach the target, lack of progress has less punitive consequences.There is a considerable amount of evidence that gender quotas for boards may not bring about systemic and sustainable changes. Quotas tend to drive short-term changes that are reversed once the quotas are lifted. For example, Norway introduced a 40% quota for boards of listed companies in 2006. The quota was reached by companies, but the side effects were counterproductive. A number of companies delisted before the legislation was introduced, thereby dodging the requirement. However, the biggest problem was that in the rush to meet the quotas, companies no longer focused on the pipeline of women in their businesses, which is the key to sustainable success. The Norwegians’ own studies show that eight years after the quota was introduced, there were no women CEOs in the country’s 60 largest companies. There was also no evidence of higher pay or more career-advancing opportunities for the vast majority of women in the workforce. Having more women at board level did little to benefit women. On the contrary, it failed to attract more women to climb the corporate ladder and it failed to open up more mid-career opportunities and better pay.By contrast, in the UK in 2011, Lord Davies set a target for FTSE 100 companies to have 25% women on their boards by 2015 (from a starting point of 12.5%). Lord Davies may have had the threat of quotas in his back pocket, but the target set was reached and exceeded. The percentage of women on the boards of FTSE 100 companies by the end of 2015 was 26.5%. Today, across the FTSE 350, the percentage of women on boards is 33%. In contrast to the quota approach in Norway, there was no reduction in the number of listed companies and no reductions in the numbers of women moving up the corporate ladder. The more recent Hampton-Alexander review has now extended the idea of targets to C-suite roles to drive similar progress at the top table.In Ireland, the 30% Club’s goal is that women should make up at least 30% of boards and senior management, and we believe that this should – and can – be achieved by voluntary means. We do not support the idea of quotas and, instead, our members drive accountability for their own progress through target-setting, leading to a greater focus on pipeline talent and more sustainable progress. In 2018, the government established Balance for Better Business, which has set targets for Irish companies. Its first target, 25% of women on the boards of Irish plcs, has been reached. Likewise, the government’s own target of 40% of women on State boards has resulted in a substantial increase in the percentage of women on those boards.And finally, there’s still the question of targets versus merit. For me, there no debate on this question. Targets focus on greater diversity in appointments, but never at the expense of the potential to do the job. It is easy to dislike the idea of others being selected solely on the basis of their status, and if merit-based criteria are not emphasised, people assume that they are non-existent. This is both unfair to appointees and to the wider employee population. It is our job as leaders to show that targets and merit are inextricably linked and there is no place for the perception or reality of a free pass.Rachel Hussey is Chair of 30% Club Ireland and a Partner at Arthur Cox.

Cormac Lucey explains why, after decades of deflation, we could be on the cusp of a financial regime change.Falling interest rates have been the constant backdrop to my adult financial life. In late 1981, US 10-year government bonds yielded an annual return in excess of 15%. Since March this year, they have been yielding less than 1%. UK and Irish bond yields have followed suit, with gilts now yielding less than a third of 1% and Irish Government bonds offering a negative yield meaning you must pay for the privilege of lending to Micheál Martin, Leo Varadkar, Eamon Ryan et al. This development was not some mere technical development on arid financial markets. They have propelled property prices upwards – as a given rental stream is worth an even-greater capital sum if its cost of capital keeps falling. The same logic has pushed equity values higher and higher. The US stock market’s cyclically adjusted price-earnings ratio now exceeds 30. That level was only previously seen in the years around the tech bubble peak of 2000.I fear that we are now on the cusp of financial regime change. A recent study by Man Group, a London-based investment management firm, contends that prevailing economic regimes “reach their apotheosis, and then change, when the extreme conditions they have created lead to permanent policy change”. It then predicts that current extremes in deflation, inequality, debt levels and globalisation may lead to four major transitions in the next decade.There will be a switch in policy emphasis from monetary to fiscal. With central bank interest rates already at or about zero, there is little scope for further reductions as negative interest rates would only further weaken the commercial banking system without yielding generation of significant economic stimulus.The owners of capital have pocketed huge gains over the last four decades while the share of national income going to labour has steadily decreased. As inequality here in Ireland may have diminished over that time, it has increased in other states, especially in the US. That has helped breed seething political discontent. One way to abate that agitation is for politicians to favour labour over capital, the second big transition that Man Group predicts. The third shift that the report expects is one from globalisation to localisation. It has passed by almost unnoticed, but global trade as a percentage of global output peaked back in 2007/2008. Superimpose that on a trade war between the US and China, trade blocs seeking self-sufficiency in personal protective equipment and a scramble to pre-purchase possible COVID-19 vaccines and you can see why this prediction is already unfolding before us. The final prediction is a consequence of the others: it is a move from deflation (or, strictly speaking, disinflation) to inflation. According to the Institute of International Monetary Research, broad money has grown by 26.7% in the US over the last 12 months, a record in the US’s modern peacetime history. That is an international outlier, but strong money growth has also been evident in India (12.1% growth over the last 12 months), China (11.4%), the UK (11.3%) and the euro area (+8.9%). Nominal national output closely tracks broad money. Real national output has been hit by the pandemic and the consequent recession. Fast-growing nominal income combined with slow-growing real income suggests a noticeable (above 4%) rebound in inflation in 2021 and 2022.If Man Group’s four predictions come true – and I think that there’s a very good chance that they will – it will represent a complete regime change for financial markets compared to what has prevailed over the last four decades. Get ready. Cormac Lucey FCA is an economic commentator and lecturer at Chartered Accountants Ireland.