The September Exchequer returns show tax receipts to end-September were €61.4 billion, up €3.5 billion, or over 6 percent higher, than the same period last year. Overall an Exchequer surplus of €1.1 billion was generated to end-September. This compares with a surplus of €7.9 billion for the same period last year, with the bulk of the difference generated by the transfer of €4 billion of windfall tax receipts to the National Reserve Fund earlier this year.
Corporation tax receipts were €14.4 billion to end-September, €0.6 billion, or 4.5 percent, higher than the same period last year but significantly behind profile by €0.7 billion. The underlying volatility in corporation tax is highlighted by the fact that this is the second consecutive month in which corporation tax receipts have declined on a year-on-year basis.
Reflecting a labour market that is operating at full employment, income tax receipts to end-September were €23.1 billion, up 8.2 percent on the same period in 2022 and in line with expectations. VAT receipts to end-September totalled €16.8 billion, up €1.5 billion, or 9.7 percent on the same period last year but slightly below profile.
Commenting on the figures, the Minister for Finance, Michael McGrath TD, said:
“The tax data to end-September demonstrate the need for caution as we finalise Budget 2024. The underlying strength of our economy remains evident in the steady growth in income tax and VAT receipts. However, the sharp underperformance of corporation tax is more evidence that, as I have warned many times, these receipts cannot be relied upon.
This Government has taken a number of important steps to address our exposure to corporation tax receipts, including transferring €6 billion in windfall receipts to the National Reserve Fund and committing €2¼ billion of windfall receipts to fund capital projects. In addition to this, work is at an advanced stage on proposals for a longer-term investment fund that will enable us to use some of these receipts to prepare for future fiscal pressures.
Ultimately, however, the best way to guard against exposure to windfall receipts is by pursuing a budgetary policy that strikes the correct balance between addressing the challenges of today and ensuring our public finances remain sustainable over the medium-term: it is on that basis that Budget 2024 will be framed."