Comment

Annette Hughes outlines the four consumer behaviour trends that have emerged from the COVID-19 pandemic. The COVID-19 crisis is being defined by four distinct consumer behaviour responses, according to the first edition of the EY Future Consumer Index. The survey tracks consumer sentiment and behaviour across several geographies, but these four behaviours, outlined below, are all evident in Ireland and have implications for the pending economic recovery. Cut deep (27%): these consumers are mainly more than 45 years old and have seen the biggest impact on their employment status. Almost one-quarter have seen their jobs suspended, either temporarily or permanently. 78% are shopping less frequently, while 64% are only buying essentials. Stay calm, carry on (26%): these consumers do not feel directly impacted by the pandemic and are not changing their spending habits. Just 21% are spending more on groceries, compared with 18% who are spending less. Save and stockpile (35%): this segment has a particular concern for their families and the long-term outlook. 36% are spending more on groceries, while most are spending less on clothing (72%) and leisure (85%). Hibernate and spend (11%): usually aged between 18-44, these consumers are most concerned about the impact of the pandemic with 40% shopping less frequently. Rationalised personal consumption From the Irish economy’s perspective, the unprecedented impact on the labour market has a significant effect on consumer spending. Personal consumption accounts for around one-third of Ireland’s GDP. Before COVID-19, the economic recovery was associated with a healthy annual average growth in consumer spending of 3.5% over the last five years. With the categories affected by containment measures accounting for around one-half of consumer spending, according to the Central Bank of Ireland, a sharp contraction in consumer spending is expected in 2020, which in turn impacts on investment and overall GDP. Recent projections from the Department of Finance forecast that personal consumption will contract by 14.2% this year, with GDP down by 10.5% (April 2020). The impact of the pandemic on employment, supply chains, travel and tourism, and mobility has hugely reduced consumer confidence and spending – and the shock is likely to be felt for some time to come. Looking beyond the immediate effects of COVID-19, few consumers expect to revert to pre-crisis behaviours any time soon. Overall, 42% of respondents believe that the way they shop will fundamentally change as a result of the COVID-19 outbreak. Plummeting consumer confidence While these four segments could morph as the crisis abates, the adverse impact of the pandemic on consumer confidence remains. In an Irish context, the KBC Consumer Confidence Index fell to its lowest level in the survey’s 24-year history due to a combination of weak conditions and the risk of poorer prospects. 584,600 people are in receipt of the Pandemic Unemployment Payment while the unadjusted Live Register total for April 2020 was 214,741. An additional 425,204 are being facilitated through Revenue’s Temporary COVID-19 Wage Subsidy Scheme. This implies that in the region of 1.224 million people – or almost 50% of the workforce – are in receipt of some form of income support. Joined-up thinking required The recovery in consumption will depend on the extent to which the unemployment situation is reversed. Companies that were struggling to keep up with changing consumer behaviour before the pandemic are now faced with the challenge of anticipating how consumers will evolve beyond the pandemic. The Government’s roadmap to ease COVID-19 restrictions and re-open Ireland’s economy and society on a phased basis are welcome, but the pace at which different sectors and regions begin to recover will vary greatly. While smaller towns may benefit from increased local spending, online sales are likely to remain high, at least in the short-term. We must look at what business and governments can do together to help everyone get through what continues to be an incredibly difficult period to ensure that they are all ready to participate in the recovery when it comes.   Annette Hughes is an Economist and Director at EY-DKM Economic Advisory.

Des Peelo shares his one guiding principle for setting a fair professional fee. Professional fees occur in many occupations including dentists, doctors, accountants, solicitors, barristers, and architects. Public relations practitioners, management consultants, estate agents, investment bankers and technical advisers of all kinds also charge professional fees, as do lecturers and conference speakers. But how should you calculate a professional fee? There are no guidelines as such, other than custom and practice within a particular sector. Competition law prevents price-fixing within a sector. Nevertheless, norms or rules of thumb usually develop over time. Enquiry suggests that a routine GP visit costs between €55 and €70, while a medical consultant may charge between €250 and €300. An estate agent may charge 1-2% plus outlays and VAT on the sale price of a property, and an architect may charge a percentage of the project costs. Practising accountants typically charge an hourly rate for routine services such as audit, accountancy, and tax work. For more complex work, mainly carried out by larger firms, such as a major investigation or a difficult liquidation, an hourly rate of €450 per hour plus VAT has been quoted in the High Court for a partner’s time. This €450 currently seems a benchmark rate and is scaled downwards for less senior staff. In general, straightforward work such as audits for an accountant, conveyancing or probate work for a solicitor or routine dental work for a dentist is competitive, and fees fall within identifiable ranges. It is difficult, however, to generalise in linking a fee to the mix of expertise provided, responsibility taken, and the value to the client. What is the value of a careful and competent diagnosis of a malady from a GP, or a substantial tax saving through expert knowledge? What is the value of the identification and rectification of a serious IT glitch, or a crisis successfully managed by a skilled public relations practitioner? Round sum fees are common for non-routine work or work not measured in terms of time incurred. There is the story of a computer glitch that closed down an entire business. A technician arrived, turned a nut, and got the system up and running again. The bill was €1 million, and the client demanded a breakdown. The response was €100 for the hour in turning the nut, and €999,900 for “knowing which nut to turn”. Legal fees, apart from routine matters, can be a mystery – particularly in litigation. There are regular reports of substantial fees across all types of litigation. A UK judge once remarked that the Savoy Hotel and the courts are open to everyone. In my experience, this is because of the extensive input necessary in almost any litigation, such as identifying the issues and the law relating thereto; assembling the relevant documentation and preparing the required procedural paperwork; accessing expert evidence; consultations; and, of course, the actual court hearing. There is an amusing story about legal fees allegedly involving a firm of solicitors in the United Kingdom. A long and complex litigation case had come to a satisfactory conclusion, and it was time to finalise the bill. The more technical aspects had already been completed as to measuring the files at £100 per inch and weighing the files at £150 per pound. Instead, each partner had to review the files and put his or her estimate of the total fee in a sealed envelope, placed in a box. When the box was opened, the partner with the lowest estimate did not share in those fees and the partner with the highest estimate had to collect the fees. An optimum balance. Investment bankers charge astronomical fees. This is because they can. The transactions involved are mega takeovers or the funding of large projects. The enormous sums of money involved are often backed by prestigious names, not necessarily professional expertise, and this is what underpins the hefty fees. Fees of 1-3% of the amounts involved do not seem unduly high when expressed that way, but these percentages translate into millions of dollars or euro. George Bernard Shaw observed that professions were conspiracies against the laity. This, of course, does not refer to Chartered Accountants and professional fees. A guiding principle as to good professional practice is to ensure that the subsequent fee is not a surprise to the client. Service before remuneration.   Des Peelo FCA is the author of The Valuation of Businesses and Shares, which is published by Chartered Accountants Ireland and now in its second edition.

Some of the commercial habits that are already being formed could serve us well once the COVID-19 crisis is over, writes Dr Brian Keegan.  By now, all businesses and institutions have taken some preventative and containment measures against COVID-19 for their staff, but the early adopters of social distancing won headlines and even kudos for so doing. They were the first to tell personnel to work from home, to block staff from hosting or attending large meetings or any type of gathering, and to have placed an embargo on international travel. Those early adopters had much in common. Typically they were large, multinational, and flourished in the online sales and services environment. By contrast, the indigenous SME sector often operates within a market segment where having people work from home is not practicable. The sector is now suffering the most from the collapse in demand caused by the pandemic. We have seen epidemics before, but how well did we remember the lessons of Zika virus a few years on? Or SARS? Or swine flu? How much better are we at defending ourselves? At the time, these were serious crises, but they seem to have faded from the collective memory very quickly. That may be simply because their social and economic impact was far less pronounced than that of the current scourge, but I’m not sure the reason is as straightforward as that. It may instead be because they left no lasting behavioural changes in most of the businesses and societies they affected. Societies that did remember how bad things could get were better prepared for COVID-19. Singapore is not the most open of jurisdictions, but they read the warning signs early. Also the isolation wards built there to tackle SARS in the early years of the century were still available to hold patients ill with COVID-19, and that in turn allowed the authorities to be more prescriptive about quarantining and testing. No business, nor even a country, can (or even should) sustain the kind of “just in case” procedures, buffers and Singaporean-style infrastructure to guard against once-in-a-century pandemics. This, however, is a crisis for all of us, and we should not waste an opportunity to take some insight from it. Some of the commercial habits that are already being formed could serve us well once this crisis is over. Because the situation is changing daily, I am hesitant to be too prescriptive and not all these behaviours will sustain or improve the bottom line. Nevertheless, there is already evidence that businesses are accommodating, and staff are delivering through, more flexible working practices. This is not just about working from home where that is possible, but about varied working hours, role definition and service delivery methods. In days when demand is in decline almost everywhere, the Institute sees an upswing in demand from members for resource materials and online training. This could be down to a desire to fill empty hours, or more positively, it could be down to a broader recognition that additional skills and tools are needed for future survival. Behaviour is the hardest thing to change. The reluctance to lend or borrow, an antipathy towards speculative development, overcautious economic policy and even the rise of the gig economy can be traced back to the downturn a decade ago. The legacy of the 2007/08 recession sometimes lingers less on balance sheets than it does in the collective memory. The businesses that bounce back the fastest could well be those who are the early adopters of the new business behaviours prompted by the crisis. Just like the last recession, COVID-19 is now creating memories of its own. We will need to hang on to the positive ones. Dr Brian Keegan is Director, Advocacy & Voice, at Chartered Accountants Ireland.

Cormac Lucey helps you turbo-charge your ability to identify and absorb relevant information in three easy steps. A close friend of mine is a retired journalist. We were in school together for several years in the 1970s. He went into journalism; I went into accountancy. In sixth year, our school won the Leinster Senior Schools cup in rugby for the first time in decades. My pal kept a copy of the following day’s Irish Independent, complete with match coverage. It disappeared under the mountain of detritus we are all at risk of gathering. Then it re-emerged after both parents had died, and the family home was put up for sale. What struck Peter, in the early part of this century, was just how thin that 1978 edition of the Independent was compared to the bulky newspapers we have today. Ironically, our newspapers are bigger and better than ever before, even as they face going down under the online onslaught. In 1978, nobody was at real risk of information overload. If anything, we suffered from information poverty back then. Today, however, we are forced to deal with an abundance of information. Separating the informational wheat from the chaff is critically important today, as each of us could be submerged in the flow of information pouring our way. I read a lot – both online and in print – and have three key rules for managing the information flow I face. Rule 1: Learn to speed read and put it into practice The average best-seller we might take with us on holidays has about 400 words on each page. It is said that President John F. Kennedy could read 2,000 words per minute, equivalent to five pages per minute. I find that hard to believe. But with a disciplined approach, it should be possible to read at speeds of 500-600 words per minute regularly. What are the core elements of speed-reading? Here is a speed speed-reading course: a) Develop the good habit of reading in a smooth rhythm; abandon the bad habit of disrupting that rhythm by occasionally going back to reread a passage; b) Instead of visually absorbing single words, get into the habit of absorbing several (three to five) words with each glance; c) Measure your reading speed when you’re reading a book and focus on getting that speed up; and d) Practice reading some trashy material at an incredibly fast pace. Then, when you read regular content, you’ll find yourself chomping at the bit speed-wise, just like when you come off the motorway and chomp at the bit at the outrageously slow speed limits then imposed. Rule 2: Focus When you read something, you are reading it for a purpose. Be deliberate about that purpose. If I’m reading a newspaper, I want useful information and I want entertainment. I also want to limit the amount of time I devote to reading the paper. I am certainly not going to read all of it. The paper owes you a duty – you owe the paper no duty. Similarly, just because you have started to read a book does not mean you are duty-bound to complete it. Our time and attention are limited. If a book is boring, tedious or just getting you down, discard it and choose another. That book may deserve the dismissive review: “Once I put it down, I couldn’t pick it up!” Rule 3: Discriminate among preferred providers I follow several financial websites closely: RTE.ie – click on “Business”, “Broker Reports” and “Goodbody” and you will be directed to a comprehensive review of the previous day’s business and economic news refracted through the prism of its implications for corporate value. Google “McKinsey on finance” and you will be directed to the website of the management consultants’ quarterly report on corporate finance themes. Each quarter, five or six issues are considered in a succinct and intellectually well-founded manner with a focus on drawing actionable conclusions. Google “Damodaran online”, and you will land at the website of Aswath Damodaran, Professor of Finance at the Stern School of New York University. This site features models, including lots of detailed valuation models; data, including important sectoral cost of capital data; and Damodaran’s blog, where he analytically considers important current financial topics. Cormac Lucey FCA is an economic commentator and lecturer at Chartered Accountants Ireland.

At the time of writing, efforts to contain the spread of coronavirus are undoubtedly the focus of attention for society and business across the island. This is a very serious and fast-evolving situation, and Chartered Accountants Ireland will adhere to the official advice provided by our respective health services and governments. The safety and health of our members, students and staff are paramount, and that principle guides the decisions taken. The Institute is reviewing its programme of activities in respect of members, students and external stakeholders. We will be in contact with everyone concerned to advise them of all decisions made. I would like to take this opportunity to commend businesses across the island for their responsible attitude to their employees and customers in following official guidelines. Such decisive action will, we hope, effectively curtail the spread of the virus. Paschal Donohoe T.D. At the start of March, we were honoured to host Minister for Finance, Public Expenditure and Reform, Paschal Donohoe T.D., who addressed an invited audience of Institute members and guests. Inevitably, coronavirus featured prominently with the Minister predicting that the Irish economy would be impacted by the global slowdown associated with the outbreak. He said: “Many, including the OECD, outline that this outbreak has the potential to slow global growth to its lowest rate since the financial crisis just over a decade ago. To what extent, it is too early to say, but it follows that weaker growth will affect our short-term outlook and my department will update its projects in April”. Turning to Brexit, the Minister argued that while the post-Brexit world will present significant challenges, if managed correctly, Ireland’s reputation as an open, adaptable yet stable economy also presents opportunities.  Engagement with US members and politicians At the time of writing, the Institute’s Director of Advocacy & Voice, Dr Brian Keegan, and myself are currently meeting with members and politicians in the USA. The programme has involved meetings in New York with Northern Ireland Economy Minister, Diane Dodds, and Consul General of Ireland, Ciarán Madden, before moving on to Washington DC for various events including the Irish Business Leaders’ Lunch, the Irish Funds dinner and the NI Bureau breakfast. Throughout the visit, we have had a very warm welcome from members based in the US and some really useful engagement with political representatives from both sides of the Atlantic. Institute signs climate change pledge In February, our Institute announced that it is one of 14 accounting bodies worldwide to become signatories to a call to action on climate change issued by Accounting for Sustainability (A4S). The memorandum of understanding signed by Chartered Accountants Ireland states that signatories will commit to providing the training and infrastructure that accountants need, as well as supporting initiatives and providing the necessary evidence to take action on climate change. In signing the memorandum, Chartered Accountants Ireland recognises that climate change is an economic, social and business risk and that accountants must take action collectively as a profession and individually as professionals working in the public interest. The 14 accounting bodies signed up to the agreement represent a total of 2.5 million accountants and students worldwide. Annual Dinner Finally, this is my first comment section since our Annual Dinner at the end of January. I would like to record my thanks to the 900 guests who supported the event; to our event partners Dublin Airport, Bank of Ireland, PeopleSource and Toyota; to our special guest, Lochlann Quinn FCA; and, most particularly, to the many corporates who supported the event by hosting tables. For me, it was another great demonstration of how Chartered Accountants are at the heart of our economy, driving Irish business. Conall O’Halloran President 

Economic forecasting can be a difficult business, especially when you consider the ‘unknown uncertainties’ the world is currently facing, writes Annette Hughes.  Businesses do not like uncertainty but, at present, that is the prevailing economic theme. An uncertain political situation, ongoing Brexit negotiations and the recent coronavirus outbreak remind us how vulnerable the economy can be to external shocks. Those in the business of economic forecasting understand this vulnerability very well. The purpose of an economic forecast is to measure the impact of ‘known uncertainties’ on future economic performance, but the future is unpredictable and this is further complicated by the ‘unknown uncertainties’ we now face.  Economists, in making their projections for economic growth in 2020, would not have been aware of the coronavirus outbreak until the first reports of a cluster of cases were identified on 31 December 2019 in Wuhan, China. The rapid and continuing escalation of COVID-19 has led economists to revise their economic forecasts downwards, as the initial output contractions in China begin to be felt around the world. It remains unclear what the full effects will be on the movement of people and goods, and economic activity, while the response of policymakers is evolving on a daily basis. Global economy In early March, the OECD reported on the considerable human suffering and major economic disruption that had resulted from COVID-19. OECD global growth in 2020 was revised downwards, by around 0.5 percentage points to 2.4%, from an already weak forecast of 2.9%. The adverse impacts on confidence, financial markets, the travel sector and disruptions to supply chains were all factors contributing to the downward revision. However, without knowledge of the full impact of the virus, the OECD acknowledged that, should the outbreak be more intense and last longer than predicted, global growth could drop to 1.5%. Economists at Oxford Economics believe that the virus will result in Q1 2020 being the first global contraction since Q1 2009, with overall growth of 2% for the year, the slowest pace in the last decade. Irish economy The OECD forecast for economic growth in the euro area was revised downwards by 0.3 percentage points to 0.8% in 2020, although, given that the spread to Europe did not materialise until February, this forecast is likely to be subject to further downside risks.  Ireland has an open economy reliant on international trade and global markets to support economic growth. Ireland and its economy accounts for just 0.4% of global GDP and 0.06% of the world’s population. However, it still remains vulnerable to the impact of the COVID-19 virus.  Economic growth in Ireland will definitely be weaker than projected should the virus spread for an extended period. The main impacts are likely to be felt through supply chain disruptions, travel and tourism restrictions, and reduced mobility (affecting consumer spending and workers staying at home). There have already been reports of delays in the delivery of imported products in the construction sector, according to the Ulster Bank Construction Confidence Index. It has been acknowledged that Ireland will likely follow a pattern seen in other European countries and the Taoiseach’s measures to minimise the spread of COVID-19 could be significant, but much less than the economic and social consequences of acting too late. The flexibility that Irish businesses have demonstrated in dealing with evolving economic, political and social trends are acknowledged in EY’s February 2020 Economic Eye. EY Chief Economist, Neil Gibson, correctly pointed to the coronavirus outbreak as likely to damage global growth in 2020, but as a rapidly evolving situation, it is difficult to predict the full economic impact on the island of Ireland. The closure of many public institutions and private businesses in the Republic of Ireland will no doubt further slow growth across the island, but the sectoral and regional impact will vary greatly. It important to remember, however, that this is first and foremost a human crisis, and we must think about people first. Moving away from GDP numbers, we must look at what business, governments and individuals can do together to help get us get through this incredibly difficult period.  Clearly, these are unprecedented times and taking such developments into account makes economic forecasting a difficult business.   Annette Hughes is a Director at EY-DKM Economic Advisory.