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Business survey shows troubling outlook ahead for the local economy

Chartered Accountants identify NI Protocol, now replaced with Windsor Framework, as main opportunity for business  -------------------- Significant increase in perception of number of businesses facing financial distress A survey of chartered accountants in Northern Ireland shows that more than half (54%) believe that prospects for the economy in the year ahead are ‘poor’, with only 7% rating the outlook as ‘good’ or ‘very good’.  Three quarters of those surveyed believe that the Northern Ireland economy is either contracting or stagnant, with only one in four believing the economy is growing at present. A long list of negative influences cited in the survey were headed by political instability and cost of living pressures, with 82% of those surveyed saying that the NI Executive should be restored. The survey from Chartered Accountants Ulster Society also shows a significant rise in the number of Chartered Accountants who feel that the number of businesses in financial distress was increasing (77% in 2023, up from 44% in 2022). Despite a difficult year ahead, respondents identified the Northern Ireland Protocol as the biggest opportunity for Northern Ireland in the years ahead, citing its potential to provide a unique trading position for businesses here. The survey was conducted prior to the publication of the Windsor Framework, which replaces the Northern Ireland Protocol. A low cost base, high skills offering, geographic location, English speaking workforce and the ability to potentially lower corporation tax were also cited as plus points for the local economy in terms of attracting more inward investment. Key Issues The biggest negative issues for the year ahead are ‘rising inflation and squeeze on living standards’ (96%), ‘cutbacks in Government spending’ (95%) and ‘current political conditions in Northern Ireland’ (93%). 75% of those surveyed identified ‘EU Exit’ as a ‘strongly negative’ or ‘negative’ factor on the performance of the local economy.  The survey showed that the rise in the cost of doing business is leading most businesses to absorb the costs, or pass on the price rises to customers, with only 10% having to look towards staffing cuts at present. EU Exit The survey did show some modest positives for business from EU Exit in terms of sales/ turnover growth and export growth outside the UK. However, the predominant impacts for business were negative, particularly in the areas of business costs, purchases from Great Britain, access to EU workers, profits growth and investment plans. A majority of respondents to the survey (78%) held a strong belief that Northern Ireland’s reputation had been damaged by the handling of the EU Exit process. 72% of those surveyed believe that the Northern Ireland Protocol presents an opportunity for Northern Ireland and 76% believe that the Northern Ireland Protocol challenges can be addressed. The Windsor Framework is the most recent attempt to overcome these challenges.  Governance   82% say that the Northern Ireland Executive should be restored, while 69% feel that more powers should be given to Permanent Secretaries within government departments until the Executive is restored. The survey found mixed views on whether there should be further devolution of tax powers in Northern Ireland, with 44% saying ‘yes’ and 40% saying ‘no’.  Corporation Tax was considered the most suitable tax to devolve, followed by short haul Air Passenger Duty and the Apprenticeship Levy. Skills Attracting and retaining people and skills dominate the challenges facing businesses in Northern Ireland, with 85% saying that it was becoming ‘increasingly difficult’ to find the right people for jobs, while 78% felt there was ‘a lack of skilled people to fill new skilled positions in Northern Ireland’. 80% of chartered accountants surveyed are expecting a fall in wages in real terms, with 25% expecting no change in wages or a pay cut this year. The survey shows that most chartered accountants expect hybrid working to continue in the year ahead. Comment Emma Murray, Chairperson of Chartered Accountants Ulster Society which represents over 5,300 Chartered Accountants in Northern Ireland said: “The survey results highlight that chartered accountants are seeing some significant warning signs for the local economy with a period of stagnation and fairly poor prospects ahead. “They are pointing to a long list of negative influences including the current political impasse in Northern Ireland, the squeeze on living standards, cuts in government spending, and the increased cost of doing business, plus the impact of the UK’s exit from the European Union.” “Our members want the Executive to be restored so that we can begin to work together to address these issues for the benefit of everyone in Northern Ireland. “Our survey shows that a majority of businesses believe that the NI Protocol, now the Windsor Framework, with access to both the British and EU markets, presents a significant opportunity for Northern Ireland. “They believe it is vital that we have leadership taking key decisions, encouraging business investment and better public services. The longer that political instability continues, the more difficult it is for local business to contribute to growth, jobs and a better quality of life in Northern Ireland.” Independent economist Maureen O’Reilly, who formulated and analysed the survey of Northern Ireland’s Chartered Accountants said: These findings provide a very valuable insight into the underlying challenges and opportunities for the NI economy from the perspective of chartered accountants at the cold face of doing business across the private, public and third sectors here.   “Their main focus is on the financial health of the businesses and organisations they represent and it is concerning that the share of members who believe that financial distress among businesses is on the increase (77%).  This is the highest share recorded over the last 7 years by a considerable margin.  “Businesses are trying to deal with rising costs by absorbing and/or passing them on through increasing prices while at the same time trying to hold on to staff, a difficult balancing act to juggle that can only last for so long if those inflationary pressures persist.    “The current political and economic environment is extremely difficult which unsurprisingly is dampening the mood around prospects for the year ahead.  However, members do see opportunities going forward and the NI Protocol (and now Windsor Framework) is certainly viewed as the main catalyst to support the region to move on to a stronger growth path.  “Members believe economic success should be measured in terms of higher productivity and higher wage jobs sending a clear message around where policy focus should sit. However, they are largely split on whether the devolution of tax varying powers to Northern Ireland should be pursued, the main concern being the need for much greater political stability before this should be pursued further. It is noteworthy that corporation tax remains the most popular tax to devolve here.”  A summary of key findings: ● 23% felt that the economy was growing; 33% of local Chartered Accountants feel that the local economy is stagnant; 43% believe that the economy is contracting. ● 77% say that the number of businesses in financial distress is increasing. 2% say the number is falling. 16% say the number is unchanged. ● 7% feel the outlook for the NI economy in the year ahead is ‘Good’ or ‘Very Good’; 40% feel the outlook is ‘Fair’; 54% say ‘Poor’ or ‘Very Poor’. ● Rising inflation and squeeze on living standards (96%), Cutbacks in Government spending (95%) and current political conditions in Northern Ireland (93%) are seen as the most negative issues for the economy. ● 72% of those surveyed believe that the NI Protocol presents an opportunity for Northern Ireland. 76% believe that the NI Protocol challenges can be addressed. ● 85% say their business or organisation is experiencing skills shortages (up from 62% in 2022) ● 82% want the NI Executive to be restored. ● 69% feel that more powers should be given to Permanent Secretaries within government departments until the Executive is restored. ● 254 Chartered Accountants took part in the survey.  

Mar 22, 2023
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Recording and slides from 'Pensions - Top tips' available now

On 21 March, the Ulster Society hosted the first in a series of financial wellbeing webinars in partnership with Evelyn Partners, aimed at helping members to boost both their advisory capabilities and their own personal financial wellbeing. This first webinar focused on top tips surrounding pensions and includes technical training and a practical case study session delivered by Bertrand Pole, Pensions Technical Specialist, Alison Dean, Chartered Financial Planner and hosted by Aaron Carey, Investment Manager at Evelyn Partners. The session highlights five key areas that accountants should be aware of when it comes to pensions, including tax relief, tapering for high-earners, working with business owners, age 75 crystallisation events and death benefits. A recording of this webinar is available to view, for free and on demand, HERE A pdf copy of the presentation used in this webinar is available to view HERE  

Mar 22, 2023
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Recording and slides from 'The Move to Five Case Model and Better Business Cases NI'

On 9 March the Ulster Society's Public Sector sub-committee hosted a webinar providing an overview of Better Business Cases NI and the Five Case Model approach to developing business cases. In this webinar, Leah Montgomery, Department of Health, talked about the process of embedding Better Business Cases NI into the business case process across the DoH and its 16 arms length bodies. A recording of this webinar is available to view, for free and on demand, HERE A copy of Leah's slides are available HERE

Mar 10, 2023
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Recording and slides from 'Finance Director priorities' webinar available now

On Monday 6 March the Ulster Society, in partnership with Hays Recruitment, hosted a webinar looking at the key issues affecting Finance Directors in the year ahead, as well as assessing both the skillset and mindset required for those taking on the FD role. Our guest speaker for this event was James Musgrave, Hays UK & Ireland Divisional Financial Director. A recording of this webinar is available to view, for free and on demand HERE A pdf copy of James' slides is available HERE

Mar 07, 2023
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Recording from 'Inspiring Excellence - John Healy' webinar available

On 2 March the Ulster Society held the latest webinar in the popular series - Inspiring Excellence in partnership with Danske Bank. In this webinar, John Healy OBE discussed his leadership journey in conversation with Andrew Toogood, using his career and 8 leadership lessons he has learned along the way. John is a highly experienced senior executive with 30 years of experience in Information Technology mostly gained in the financial service industry, primarily in banking and insurance. A recording of this webinar is available to view, for free and on demand HERE  

Mar 03, 2023
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Recording and slides from 'Directors' Duties' Legal Webinar available now

On 23 February, David Rowan and Anna Cartwright from the Ulster Society's legal partner, A&L Goodbody, discussed recent developments and trends in the area of directors' duties and provided members with an update on other key legal areas which directors should be considering.  A recording of this webinar is available to view, for free and on demand HERE A pdf copy of the slides used in this presentation are available HERE

Feb 24, 2023
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Recording and slides from 'Delivering Transformation in the Public Sector' webinar

On 9 February the Ulster Society hosted a webinar titled 'Delivering Transformation in the Public Sector – Setting up for Success' In this lunchtime webinar, Paul Duffy, Deputy Secretary at the Department of Finance outlined his approach in leading transformation programmes, drawing on his experience and learning as a Senior Responsible Owner (SRO) for a number of projects. A recording of this webinar is available for members to view for free and on demand HERE A pdf copy of Paul's slides is available to view HERE

Feb 10, 2023
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Recording and Slides from 'Taming the Zedonk' webinar available now

On 20 January the Ulster Society's Chartered Accountants in Business sub-Committee hosted a webinar titled 'Taming the Zedonk - 'horrible hybrids' and the future of work' In this webinar highly acclaimed, award-winning presenter Dr Nicola Millard addressed some of the key issues shaping the hybrid world of work, such as: • building resilience in this new way of working. • how the world of work has changed and the trends that employers and employees are finding. • the challenge of managing teams remotely. • key management and tech considerations. • what is an office for? • meetings culture - are meetings the best use of time? • will the metaverse actually be useful to the world of work? A recording of this webinar is available to view, for free and on demand HERE A pdf copy of Dr. Nicola's slides are available to view HERE

Jan 23, 2023
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Chartered Accountants help Santa with toys this Christmas

Ulster’s Chartered Accountants gave out thousands of pounds worth of Christmas presents this week and provided a boost to local charities by presenting hundreds of toys to the Salvation Army and St. Vincent de Paul Family Appeal. Chartered Accountants Ulster Society also raised a total of £15,000 for local charity Northern Ireland Chest Heart and Stroke at their Christmas event running in partnership with Ulster Bank. The toys and funds were collected at the Ulster Society’s Christmas Charity Lunch at the Europa Hotel in Belfast, attended by over 500 Chartered Accountants. Emma Murray, Chairperson of Chartered Accountants Ulster Society said: “Our Charity Lunch is one of our most important events and a fantastic opportunity to make Christmas a little bit brighter for a lot of families. It feels especially important this year with so many people dealing with the cost-of-living crisis. “Chartered Accountants have raised money and donated toys which will bring some Christmas sparkle to children this Christmas. The Charity Lunch is always one of our busiest and most enjoyable events and we’re delighted to support fantastic charities which make a big difference. We’re pleased that with the support of our partner Ulster Bank, we’ve been able to bring this event back this year bigger and better after the pandemic.” Richard Lusty, Relationship Director with Ulster Bank said: “Ulster Bank is delighted to have worked with the Ulster Society of Chartered Accountants Ireland to support this event which marks the beginning of a three-year partnership between our two organisations.  “Not only was this a welcome opportunity to celebrate the great work of the local accountancy sector, the lunch has also generated fantastic support for our charity partners which will make a real difference to those in need this Christmas.” Pictured before the charity lunch are Emma Murray, Chartered Accountants Ulster Society; Gareth McGleenon, Northern Ireland Chest Heart and Stroke; Zara Duffy, Chartered Accountants Ireland; and Richard Lusty of event sponsors Ulster Bank.

Dec 20, 2022
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Recording and Slides from 'Moving from Renting to Home Ownership' webinar available now

On 30 November the Ulster Society hosted a webinar in partnership with Co-Ownership which has been  helping people become home owners in NI for 43 years.  In this webinar Glynis Hobson and Niall McNulty from Co-Ownership discuss the support offered by the organisation and how the process works A recording of this webinar is available to view, for free and on demand, HERE A copy of the slides used by Glynis and Niall can be viewed HERE    

Dec 07, 2022
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Sustainability
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Recording and slides from 'The Sustainability Journey: Responsibilities, Strategy and Reporting' webinar

On 28 November the Ulster Society hosted a webinar addressing the issue of sustainability, how businesses are shaping a sustainability strategy, delivering operational change and meeting their reporting obligations. This webinar provided an overview of the challenge, and some first-hand case studies of businesses who are taking significant steps on the sustainability journey. Speakers included Keith Scott, NI Water; Derarca Dennis, EY Ireland; Shane O'Reilly, KPMG Sustainable Futures; David Smith, Kilwaughter Minerals Limited. A recording of this webinar is available to view, for free and on-demand, HERE A copy of Shane's slides is available to view HERE A copy of David's slides is available to view HERE A copy of Keith's slides is available to view HERE A copy of Derarca's slides is available to view HERE

Dec 01, 2022
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Recording and slides from 'Dealing with Burnout, Stress and Understanding Mental Health' webinar

On 15 November the Ulster Society held a webinar in partnership with Action Mental Health looking at how we can better understand our mental health and deal with issues such as burnout and stress. In this webinar David Babington introduced Action Mental Health and its services, as well as an overview of regional challenges for the charity sector before Rachael Power talked about:  •    The mental health spectrum •    Creating a positive culture towards mental health through shared language and understanding  •    Burnout within the workplace and how to avoid it  •    Examples of tools to help when feeling burnt out or stressed •    Signposting  A recording of the webinar is available to view for free and on demand HERE A pdf copy of David's slides is available to view HERE A pdf copy of Rachael's slides is available to view HERE Rachael can be contacted here: T: 028 9442 5347 E: rpower@amh.org.uk W: www.amh.org.uk  

Nov 16, 2022
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Recording and slides from 'Skills and Apprenticeships' webinar available now

On 27 October, the Ulster Society's Chartered Accountants in Business sub-Committee hosted a webinar examining the balance between talent supply and demand in Northern Ireland, and the options open to employers to address supply challenges. Gareth Hetherington discussed the findings from the latest NI Skills Barometer research produced by the Ulster University Economic Policy Centre.  Richard Kirk outlined initiatives used by employers to address talent supply challenges, with a particular focus on entry-level initiatives including work experience and apprenticeships.  A recording of this webinar is available to view, for free and on demand, HERE A pdf copy of Gareth's presentation is available to view HERE A pdf copy of Richard's presentation is available to view HERE

Oct 28, 2022
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Speaker slides from Belfast breakfast

The Ulster Society hosted a breakfast for members in Belfast yesterday morning (19 October) featuring guest speakers Chris Martin and Aileen McAvoy of Danske Bank. Due to requests from members, copies of the slides from both presenters are available to download now: Chris' slides can be viewed HERE Aileen's slides can be viewed HERE

Oct 20, 2022
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Speaker Slides from Newry Breakfast

The Ulster Society hosted a breakfast for members in Newry this morning (18 October) featuring guest speakers John-Paul Coleman of Danske Bank and Independent Economist Maureen O'Reilly. Due to requests from members, copies of the slides from both presenters are available to download now: John-Paul's slides can be viewed HERE Maureen's slides can be viewed HERE

Oct 18, 2022
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District Societies announce Christmas events for members

Each year the District Societies plan lunch or evening events for members to celebrate the season. Here is a round up of the events that were held around the country in 2022.   London Society Dinner – Thursday 1 December  The London Society enjoyed their event, "A Christmas Celebration: An evening of music and stories", at the Women's University Club in London. Leinster Society regional dinner – Thursday 1 December Thank you to all members who came along to Kelly's Resort, Rosslare for the Wexford dinner. Mid West Society Dinner – Thursday 1 December Members in the Mid West gathered in the Savoy Hotel, Limerick and heard from Ray Goggins of RTÉ's Ultimate Hell Week and Donn O'Sullivan Leinster Society regional lunch – Friday 2 December Members from Kilkenny and surrounding areas got together for lunch in the Ormonde Hotel. Ulster Society Lunch – Friday 2 December  Members in NI gathered in the Europa Hotel in Belfast for a sold-out lunch and entertainment from comedian Neil Delamare. Their charity partners were NICHS and The Family Appeal. Thank you to all who supported.  Western Society Lunch – Friday 2 December  Members in Galway and surrounding areas got together in the Dean Hotel for lunch and to hear from Izzy Wheels. The event was in support of charity partner, Oscar's Kids. Thank you to everyone who supported.  Cork Society Lunch – Friday 9 December Members in Cork got together in the Maryborough Hotel and heard from guest speakers Donal Lenihan and Billy Holland. Leinster Society Lunch – Friday 9 December The Leinster Society hosted members in the Clayton Hotel in Dublin for lunch with entertainment from comedian Neil Delamare. Members and their guests raised money for Aware.  North West Society Lunch – Friday 9 December  Members from the North West celebrated in the Glasshouse Hotel, with Pat McCann as their guest speaker.

Oct 14, 2022
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Press release
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Retention of 19 percent corporate tax rate a vital lifeline for companies in Northern Ireland

Institute reacts to publication of Chancellor’s ‘mini-budget’ 23 September 2022 – Maintaining the 19 percent corporate tax rate and leveraging the tax system to deliver much needed supports will be a vital lifeline for companies in Northern Ireland in the face of inflation and increased energy costs according to Chartered Accountants Ireland. The Institute, which represents over 5,200 members working in businesses and practices across Northern Ireland made these remarks as the Government announced its ‘mini-budget’ in Westminster this morning.   As we saw during the COVID-19 pandemic, the government this morning outlined plans to deliver supports through the tax system with the aim of protecting jobs and supporting businesses in the months ahead. Commenting, Chair of the Ulster Society of Chartered Accountants, Emma Murray said, “Measures announced today to support businesses will come as a relief for businesses in Northern Ireland that are struggling with the impact of inflation in the cost-of-living crisis. Many of the tax changes announced will be permanent, providing businesses with certainty and stability.”   Corporation tax unchanged As announced by Chancellor Kwasi Kwarteng today, the already legislated for increase in the corporate tax rate from 19 percent to 25 percent which was due to happen across the UK in April 2023, will not now proceed. Chartered Accountants Ireland noted however the still significant disparity between the corporate tax rate in Northern Ireland and that of the Republic of Ireland.    Murray continued “Maintaining the corporate tax rate at 19 percent reduces the risk that some companies will relocate or establish new business operations outside of Northern Ireland. The rate is still much higher than the 12.5 percent rate in operation on the other side of the border”.   “A competitive rate of corporation tax, combined with the benefits of having access to both the UK and the EU’s single market for goods, puts Northern Ireland in a strong position to attract FDI, particularly in the manufacturing and distribution sectors, drive investment and expansion by local companies, and create more high-value jobs.”  Northern Irish Protocol Bill Uniquely within the UK, a key economic factor for Northern Ireland is the Northern Irish Protocol. The Institute had hoped that the Chancellor would have used the opportunity in today’s announcements to provide much-needed clarity on the new Cabinet’s approach to the Protocol which affects so many businesses in Northern Ireland.  Murray concluded "Since 2021, the Protocol on Ireland / Northern Ireland has allowed businesses in the region to continue to sell and buy unhindered from the EU. There was no clarity today on the new Cabinet’s approach to the Protocol. As the Northern Ireland Protocol Bill continues its passage through the House of Lords, businesses cannot be certain that current trading arrangements will continue. In a time of crisis like this, certainty is crucial.”  Other supports for businesses and individuals announced in today’s package of measures include; The 45 percent higher rate of income tax is to be abolished with one single high income tax rate of 40 percent. A reduction in the basic rate of income tax to 19 percent in April 2023.  An increase in the stamp duty threshold on a property’s value such that no stamp duty will be liable on the first £250,000.  The Stamp duty threshold for first time buyers will be increased from £300,000 to £425,000. The value of the property on which first-time buyers can claim relief is also to increase from £500,000 to £625,000. A reversal of the April 2022 increase of 1.25 percent to National Insurance rates for employers, employees and the self-employed from 6 November and of the increase in the rates of income tax on dividends from 6 April 2023. ENDS  

Sep 23, 2022
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Recording and slides from 'Challenges to Contracts' available now

On 5 July, Ciaran McCorry and Ellé McMaster of our legal partner, A&L Goodbody, looked at how businesses and organisations should handle challenges to contracts. The presentation will include: • Current market trends and key issues affecting contracts to supply • Contract termination including force majeure clauses, frustration and illegality. • Methods of enforcing a contract covering injunctive proceedings • Key things to consider when negotiating a contract A recording of this presentation is available to view, for free and on demand, HERE A pdf copy of the slides from this presentation are available to download HERE

Jul 06, 2022
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Recording and slides from 'Tourism - A Path to Recovery' available now

On 29 June the Ulster Society hosted a webinar titled 'Tourism - A Path to Recovery'. In this webinar John McGrillen and Peter Bolan covered what is happening on the ground with tourism development in NI, and the impact of tourism as an economic driver. They also examined what the latest research tells us about tourism in a post-COVID environment. A recording of this webinar is available to view, for free and on demand, HERE A copy of Peter Bolan's presentation is available to view HERE A copy of John McGrillen's presentation is available to view HERE

Jun 30, 2022
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Recording and slides from 'Dealing with Subject Access Requests' now available

On 22 June the Ulster Society hosted a webinar on 'Deadling with Subject Access Requests'. In this webinar Aisling Byrne, Partner with our legal partner, A&L Goodbody looked at how businesses should respond to data access requests in light of current legislation. The presentation includes: • A summary of the right of access under UK GDPR and the Data Protection Act 2018 • How a subject access request is made and how to determine validity • Timescales for responding • Dealing with Third Party information • Application of exemptions • Manifestly unfounded and excessive requests • Consequences of non-compliance • Changes on the horizon A recording of this webinar is available to view, for free and on demand HERE A pdf copy of Aisling's slides from the presentation are available to view HERE

Jun 23, 2022
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