Originally posted on Business Post 08 May 2022.  As a country, we consistently ask the wrong questions about our industrial and investment policy. The current row over turf tells us much about Ireland’s body politic, and it isn’t a good story. Bad policy does damage, but we don’t have enough politicians with sufficient ambition for their constituents to do it a better way. Surely, the real question is why any citizen of one of the wealthiest countries in the world has to rely on turf to heat their homes. The wrong questions are also being asked about our industrial and investment policy. The focus, post-Brexit and the Northern Ireland protocol, has been our trade in goods with Britain and the wider world, but Ireland exports just as much in services. Services can only be provided if we have people to provide them. Investment policy in this country has traditionally focused on how we tax employers. Having resolved the tax status of the body corporate, it is now time to think about the body in the office sitting at the keyboard, providing the financial management, systems programming and business support facilities which fuel so much of our prosperity. We have issues with the retention of qualified talent in this country. This seems to be particularly pronounced in the medical profession, where, as an OECD study of health systems pre-pandemic rather dryly observed, a high number of medical graduates who qualify here will never work here. It is difficult to resolve retention challenges in any particular sector, but we have to slow if not completely halt the brain drain. While not every problem can be solved by throwing money at it, should we start thinking again about how we tax our working population? What might the effect on the workforce be if we increased the personal tax allowances available to those under 30, while reducing the personal allowances available to those over 50 by a similar amount? That would, in effect, frontload the personal tax allowances people receive across their lifetime of work in the country to ensure they are less taxed in their early careers. Such an initiative would be a long-term project, and history suggests that while it wouldn’t be ineffective, it may not be permitted to be effective. The last attempt at engineering the make-up of the workforce with income tax policy was individualisation – lower taxes for working couples – and that failed for little better reason than a political resistance to any form of change. There was no ambition for the wellbeing of working couples, or for the resourcing of national growth. Turf fire thinking is not a new phenomenon. Yet there are some grounds for optimism. There have been positive developments in providing apprenticeship opportunities and in education syllabus reform. One area where the government has made considerable progress in dealing with the challenge is in the granting of critical work visas for skilled personnel coming into the country. Waiting time has dropped from almost six months to, in some cases, less than a month. Many knowledge workers do not need to be physically located in this country. International tax conventions preclude the possibility of special tax dispensations for workers resident outside the country but employed by an Irish firm. They do not, however, preclude simplifying the whole process of calculating and offsetting the correct amount of taxes due between countries. Making administration easier can make all the difference in ensuring ready supplies of goods, as post-Brexit Britain is finding to its cost. The same holds true in ensuring the ready availability of talent. This time last year, Ireland was an outlier from the international consensus was when the government sought to protect the country from the loss of one of our key investment incentives – the 12.5 per cent corporate tax rate. The outcome was an international rate of 15 per cent that would not go any higher, while persuading the European institutions that it was tenable to run a tax regime with different rates depending on the size of the industry. But the other side of the international reform agenda, which garnered less attention was that some corporate tax revenues would migrate from countries of production to countries where markets were to be found. This would mean that Western economies such as the US, France and Britain would in effect be surrendering part of their corporation tax take to countries with large markets such as Russia, China and India. There is now little to no chance of that happening any time soon. Future success will not be achieved by attempting to mirror the patterns of the past. It has often been pointed out that money tends to flow to locations where it is most welcome, and the same is true of professional talent. It is not terribly long ago since we systematically impoverished our country by restrictive trade and industrial policies which did little other than prompt people with get up and go to get up and go from our shores. We now need to do exactly the opposite. It’s time to stop the turf fire thinking. Dr Brian Keegan is Director of Public Policy at Chartered Accountants Ireland

In this week’s Public Policy Bulletin, read about Ireland’s latest Residential Property Price Index findings, Ireland's goals in relation to connectivity and a public consultation on the Retail Banking Review Dialogue. We also cover a report on cyber readiness among businesses in Ireland. Lastly, we bring you news from Northern Ireland including increases in unfair dismissal and redundancy payment limits, the most recent Labour Market Report and the announcement of more assured skills academy places.   CSO releases latest Residential Property Price Index Residential property prices in Ireland increased by 15.2 percent nationally in the twelve months to March 2022, according to recently released figures from the CSO. The results from the recent Residential Property Price Index (RPPI) show that the national index is still lower than the 2007 peak, with Dublin residential prices still 10.1 percent lower than their February 2007 highs. Property prices in the rest of Ireland are 3.3 percent lower than their May 2007 peak. RPPI is based on Revenue stamp duty returns, which have a 44 day submission deadline. Read the press release here. World Telecommunications Day To mark World Telecommunications Day, Minister of State with responsibility for Communications at the Department of the Environment, Climate and Communications, Ossian Smyth TD, spoke about Ireland’s goals in relation to connectivity: “Our target is to complete the delivery of digital connectivity to all Connected Hubs and all schools by 2023; for all Irish households and businesses to be covered by a Gigabit network no later than 2028; and for all populated areas to be covered by 5G by no later than 2030.” A report produced by EY for the Department of the Environment, Climate and Communications was also released this week. This report found that broadband is a vital part of economic and social development and deems it as essential to our daily lives. It stresses that State-led intervention is crucial and a failure to make this investment would have negative economic and social impacts, due to a growing digital divide. Public consultation announced at Retail Banking Review Dialogue This week, The Minister for Finance, Paschal Donohoe TD and the Minister of State for Financial Services, Credit Unions and Insurance, Seán Fleming TD launched a public consultation at the Retail Banking Review Dialogue, which will be open until 8 July 2022. The Department also published the results from a detailed consumer survey, with a sample of over 1,500 people, which found that 97 percent of the sample hold their main current account with a traditional retail bank and only 1 percent opt for a digital bank. Branch visits are still important for 23 percent of the respondents, with 70 percent using digital channels as their main form of contact. One in five of the respondents expressed a preference for cash as a payment method. Switching rates over the last five years for all financial products are between 2 and 5 percent. Read the press release here. Cyber Readiness Report released A survey of over 5,000 professionals responsible for their company’s cyber security strategy across eight countries found that businesses increasingly view the cyber challenge as a dominant risk. The global survey conducted by Hiscox found that 48 percent of respondents had faced at least one cyber attack, with the median cost being estimated at almost $17,000. More than 200 professionals from Ireland were surveyed for the Cyber Readiness Report, finding that 34 percent of businesses here purchased or enhanced cyber insurance following an attack, with effective cyber security training and awareness for employees identified as the top spending priority for businesses here. The survey found that 49 percent of respondents experienced a cyber attack in 2022, but only 19 percent reported a ransomware attack. Irish businesses paid out ransoms more regularly than the rest, with 25 percent paying five times or more to recover data, but ransom costs were among the lowest. Unfair dismissal and redundancy payment limits increased in Northern Ireland Northern Ireland’s Economy Minister Gordon Lyons announced an increase in the limits for payments and awards in employment rights cases. From 6 April 2022, the limit on the compensatory award for unfair dismissal rises from £89,669 to £94,063. Also, the maximum amount of ‘a week’s pay’ for the purpose of calculating redundancy payments rises from £566 to £594. Latest Northern Ireland Labour Market Report published This week, Northern Ireland Statistics and Research Agency (NISRA) published its most recent Labour Market Report. The number of employees receiving pay through HMRC PAYE in NI in April 2022 was the highest on record, reaching 774,600. An increase of 4.5 percent in the number of payrolled employees in the twelve months to April 2022 was reported. April 2022 is the eleventh consecutive month where payrolled employees are higher than the numbers seen pre-pandemic. The claimant count reduced again in April 2022 to 36,500 people, representing 3.9 percent of the workforce. This is still 23 percent higher than the figures seen pre-pandemic. Sixth PwC Professional Services Assured Skills Academy announced This week, Northern Ireland’s Economy Minister Gordon Lyons announced the sixth Assured Skills Academy with PwC, offering twenty individuals the opportunity to start their career in professional services. The chosen participants will receive eight weeks industry-relevant pre-employment training delivered by Belfast Met, covering areas including: project management, business analysis, commercial awareness, financial accounting, Microsoft and Google tools, data visualisation and design thinking. A training allowance of £155 a week will be paid to participants.  

In this week’s Public Policy Bulletin, read about the latest live register figures, measures to impact inflation and Ireland’s first Artificial Intelligence Ambassador. We also cover the recent hints of a European Central Bank rate hike. Lastly, in a quiet week in Northern Ireland on the policy front following the NI Assembly elections, we bring you a roundup of the latest news from the rest of the UK.  Latest Live Register Figures released  Social Protection Minister Heather Humphreys welcomed the April 2022 live register figures this week, reporting a drop in the seasonally adjusted unemployment rate to 4.8 percent. The number for April 2022 was reported at 177,004, reflecting a drop of 1,992 on the March 2022 figure. This is also 965 less than the April 2021 figure, when there were a further 385,211 people in receipt of the Pandemic Unemployment Payment.  More measures to address inflation impact announced   This week, Minister for Public Expenditure and Reform, Michael McGrath announced measures to address the impact of Construction Material Price Inflation on Public Works Projects. An “Inflation Co-operation Framework” is being introduced for parties engaged under a public works contract. The Framework will help mitigate the risks of significant losses for contractors and is in the interest of safeguarding public projects already under construction.   The Framework outlines the approach and parameters within which public works contract parties can calculate the additional costs attributable to material and fuel price fluctuations, using the Central Statistics Office’s price indices. These additional inflationary costs will be apportioned between the parties, with the State bearing up to 70 percent of the additional inflationary related costs on payments made from 1 January 2022.  See the full press release here.   Appointment of Ireland’s first Artificial Intelligence Ambassador  This week the Minister for Trade Promotion, Company Regulation and Digital, Robert Troy TD appointed Dr Patricia Scanlon as Ireland’s first Artificial Intelligence (AI) Ambassador.   Dr Scanlon will work with the Department of Enterprise, Trade and Employment on a schedule of engagements in her new role as she leads a national conversation on the role of AI in our lives. Dr Scanlon’s AI developer background, using AI to help children to learn, will help with a key part of her new role, to engage with young people in relation to AI.  The Government is committed to an ethical approach to the use of the technology and in particular its adoption by businesses. At the appointment, Minister Troy said “We cannot stem progress, but we can embrace it. AI can bring great benefits to our society in areas such as healthcare, climate action and education. It is important that we look at all aspects of the technology so we have a full and informed understanding of how it will impact of lives from now and into the future.”     European Central Bank rate rises expected  This week, European Central Bank President Christine Lagarde made remarks during a speech in Ljubljana, Slovenia, signalling the first interest-rate increase in over a decade may be coming this summer.  Lagarde stated “The first rate hike, informed by the ECB’s forward guidance on the interest rates, will take place some time after the end of net asset purchases. We have not yet precisely defined the notion of “some time”, but I have been very clear that this could mean a period of only a few weeks. After the first rate hike, the normalisation process will be gradual.”   Read the full press release here.  UK news in brief:  High energy use businesses in the UK are set to get additional government support. Read more.   HSBC is the latest lender to be added to the UK’s SME Finance Charter. This brings to five, the number pledges from UK banks and finance providers to support their SME customers.   Businesses in the UK can now sign up to offer work to people who have come to the UK from Ukraine.     Attendees at the Cyber UK conference which took place in Wales this week heard about the threats and opportunities that cyber presents. Read opening comments.     

In this week’s Public Policy Bulletin, read about the CSO business survival results and Kantar’s recent report on Ireland’s grocery figures. We also cover the establishment of the Enterprise Digital Advisory Forum. Lastly, we tell you about the Department of Finance’s Back in Business scheme in Northern Ireland. CSO releases Business Survival results This week, the Central Statistics Office (CSO) released results found from their ‘Business Signs of Life Series Two: Business Survival, 2020 to 2021’ study, finding a business survival rate of 84 percent at the end of 2021 for businesses that traded normally in 2019. Businesses continuing to trade at the end of 2021 accounted for 94 percent of the jobs recorded in 2019. The ‘other services activities’ sector, which includes gyms and hairdressers, had the highest proportion of enterprises which showed signs of being at risk of closing, with nearly 1 in 5 experiencing difficulties, followed by the ‘construction’ and ‘accommodation & food service activities’ sectors. 10 percent of enterprises trading pre-COVID-19 were at risk of closing at the end of 2021, rising to 12 percent for micro enterprises. 98 percent of the 653 large enterprises in existence in 2019, were still in business at the end of 2021. Kantar releases report on grocery inflation Kantar reported a fall of 7.2 percent in Ireland’s take home grocery spend in the twelve weeks to 17 April 2022, in a period where grocery price inflation hit 4.7 percent inflation, the highest level since September 2013. 23 percent of households say they are now struggling to make ends meet when it comes to their weekly food shop according to Kantar’s most recent Link Q Service. Despite this, sales of instant hot snacks and frozen pizzas saw growth of 9 and 4 percent respectively over the last four weeks. Alongside this, hot cross buns saw a jump in spending this year, an additional €620,000 compared to the previous year, and €10.8 million more was spent on Easter eggs. See the full report here. Establishment of Enterprise Digital Advisory Forum This week the Minister for Trade Promotion, Company Regulation and Digital, Robert Troy TD established and chaired the new Enterprise Digital Advisory Forum, a commitment in both the ‘AI –Here for Good: A National AI Strategy for Ireland’ and Ireland’s National Digital Strategy, ‘Harnessing Digital: The Digital Ireland Framework’. The Forum, which brings together representatives of indigenous enterprise, multi-national enterprises and experts in digital technology, will support Government in driving the digitalisation of enterprise across Ireland. Minister Troy indicated plans for 90 percent of SMEs to have achieved basic digital intensity by 2030 and sees the Forum as “crucial to supporting Government to encourage this change.”  Department of Finance’s Back in Business scheme This week, the Department of Finance in Northern Ireland started accepting applications for their Back in Business scheme. This scheme is aimed at attracting businesses back onto the high streets and into town centres. Businesses will be offered a 50 percent rates discount for up to two years if they move into premises that have been unoccupied for more than 12 months and previously used for retail purposes. Applications will be accepted up until 31st March 2023. See here for more information.    

In this week’s Public Policy Bulletin, read about the Tánaiste’s US trip to promote Ireland as a place to do business, Ireland’s first Women in Finance Charter, the Department of Finance’s Spring 2022 economic insights and updates on the Work Life Balance and miscellaneous provisions bill. We also cover the launch of the new regional enterprise plan for Cork and Kerry and Government’s finance shared services. Lastly, we tell you about the Department for the Economy in Northern Ireland’s recently announced training places. Tánaiste embarks on IDA Ireland and Enterprise Ireland US West Coast Trade and Investment Mission Tánaiste Leo Varadkar, IDA Ireland CEO Martin Shanahan and Enterprise Ireland CEO Leo Clancy are in the US this week on a joint mission to promote Ireland as a place to do business. The US continues to be the largest single investor in Ireland. Meetings will be held with some of the IDA’s largest existing client and also with potential clients. Plans are also in place for a number of Enterprise Ireland meetings over the course of the week, with key focus on areas such as cyber security, life sciences and ICT. Read more here. Launch of Ireland’s first Women in Finance Charter This week, Minister of State at the Department of Finance, Sean Fleming TD launched Ireland’s first Women in Finance Charter, a collaboration between industry and Government under the Ireland for Finance strategy. The Charter, developed in partnership with Financial Services Ireland, Insurance Ireland, Banking & Payments Federation Ireland and Irish Funds, is open to all financial services firms operating in Ireland. Signatories of the Charter commit to improving the number of women in management and board level positions to achieve better gender balance and a more inclusive working environment in their organisations. The senior management teams of signatory firms will be accountable for progressing the yearly targets. Data will be collected and reported on by the Economic and Social Research Institute (ESRI) on an annual basis to ensure independent, credible analysis. Read more about the Charter here. Department of Finance publishes Spring 2022 Economic Insights The Department of Finance published their Economic Insights for Spring 2022 last week. This report recognises the heightened economic uncertainty but makes the point that the Irish economic growth model over the medium term will continue to depend on productivity, trade and investment. One of the main findings suggest that productivity growth remains the predominant driver of economic growth in Ireland. Demand side factors are seen as the main driver for property price variations, with high asking rents coming from low levels of supply.   Work Life Balance and Miscellaneous Provisions Bill Minister for Children, Equality, Disability, Integration and Youth Roderic O’Gorman recently welcomed approval by the Government of the drafting of a Work Life Balance and Miscellaneous Provisions Bill, indicating that the intention is for this legislation to be passed and enacted prior to summer recess. This legislation will provide new rights to parents and carers in order to help support a better work life balance, reflecting elements of the EU Work Life Balance Directives. Under the proposed legislation, parents and carers will have a right to request flexible working, including the right to request compressed or reduced hours. It will also introduce five days leave per year for serious medical care and extend current entitlements to breastfeeding/lactation breaks under the Maternity Protection Acts from six months to two years. The full Bill is available here. Minister McGrath welcomes the launch of Finance Shared Services The National Shared Services Office (NSSO) launched its Finance Shared Services this week, representing the large-scale transformation of finance and accounting processes used by central Government and Offices. Minister Michael McGrath welcomed the launch, stating: “The modernisation of accounting standards and comprehensive reporting of finance has been a key objective for this Government. Coming from the accountancy profession, I know the extensive value that having rich centralised data available from a single central financial system can deliver, and the value that the NSSO is bringing.” South-West Regional Enterprise Plan launched This week, Minister of State for Business, Employment and Retail, Damien English was in Killorglin to launch the South-West Regional Enterprise Plan (REP) to 2024. This plan is one of nine new enterprise plans funded by up to €180 million throughout the country and is intended to drive the implementation of the plans to develop and implement collaborative and innovation enterprise projects and support sustainable jobs. Another Assured Skills Academy announced This week, Northern Ireland’s Department of the Economy announced a further 20 positions on the Microsoft 365 Cloud Academy. This will be funded by the Department for the Economy and will be delivered by Belfast Metropolitan College. Successful applicants will receive twelve weeks of pre-employment training and receive a training allowance for this period.    

Originally posted on Business Post 03 April 2022. A wage increase would generate hundreds of millions of euro in tax yield without much political or social pushback. Are wages in Ireland really too low? It would appear the emerging consensus is that they are. There have been recent debates in the Dáil over the level of the national minimum wage. Trade unions are signalling the need to achieve increases in pay in the order of 5 per cent or more. Even President Michael D Higgins has engaged in the discussions, with his observation last week at the Siptu Biennial Conference that we should be entering a new era of worker engagement and negotiations over pay and conditions. Last week, there was progress on issues such as pensions auto-enrolment and minimum statutory sick pay. Both of these are entirely laudable and necessary social reforms, but both also create further inflationary wage pressures and extra costly demands on employers. Every household in the country is feeling the pinch of higher fuel prices and other essentials, a wave of price increases prompted initially by the rapid economic recovery post-pandemic, and now perpetuated by the miserable and evil war in Ukraine. No one can be in any doubt that Ireland is an expensive country to govern. The pandemic has added to our national debt servicing costs. There are legitimate calls for additional funding for health, education and social services, along with the need to provide aid and support for the war refugees. But these calls are not being matched by a willingness among the Irish population to pay for the enhanced government services. In February, a Red C poll in this newspaper found that while the majority of the population were keen to ensure that the retirement age would not be raised, a similar majority would not be willing to pay the tax price of what undeniably is a social good. This tax reticence is nothing new. It took two attempts for a modest local property tax, to fund essential local council services, to stick. When LPT revaluations fell due last year, the system was tweaked in such a fashion that the tax burden would only increase on very few people. In 2012 the nation jibbed at paying a levy for septic tank inspections, and then many refused point blank to pay the water charges which were needed to repair a (literally) leaky public service infrastructure. Ireland collects tax and social welfare in the order of 20 per cent of our GDP. In most other developed economies, according to OECD statistics from 2020, the figure is closer to 34 per cent. As of now, we don’t raise enough taxes to pay for current and future government services, but we don’t have the collective national will to introduce new taxes or allow existing tax rates to get any higher. One possibility is that instead of changing the tax rates, the government might change how much gets taxed. The easiest way to do that politically is to levy additional taxes from higher wages. If wages increase in both the public and private sectors, but allowances and reliefs do not, a higher proportion goes in income tax, USC and PRSI. This would not be a new strategy. In the 2016 Programme for Partnership Government, a stated tax policy was not to increase tax bands and allowances as wages increased, so that additional revenue could flow to the exchequer. This phenomenon is known as fiscal drag and is a form of taxation by stealth. It seems that stealth taxation is the only way in which an Irish finance minister can raise funds without being deflected by a political headwind. The effect of fiscal drag can be quite dramatic, particularly as the Irish tax system is very much skewed in favour of the lower-paid, as indeed it should be. Calculations are frequently wheeled out around budget time on the impact of a 1 per cent change up or down in an income tax rate. We rarely see tax calculations which involve changes in wages. Tax projections are not an exact science, especially given the distortions in income levels from the pandemic, but what might be the effect of everyone in the country receiving a 5 per cent wage increase? A rough and conservative calculation, based on the most recent publicly available figures, suggests an increase in income tax yield alone in the order of €800 million. Additional USC and PRSI yields would likely drive the total yield over €1 billion. That’s a huge amount of recurring tax money to raise with possibly little enough outcry. Of course, wage increases bring their own problems, not least the challenge of competitiveness. Nor would a general wage increase be a rising tide that can lift all boats. Increases in disposable income are all very well until met with higher costs of goods and services and last week’s inflation figures are a genuine cause for concern. When government addresses wage claims either in the public sector or for that matter in the private sector, the bigger exchequer picture will be factored in. What might be lost on the roundabouts could be gained on the swings. Dr Brian Keegan is Director of Public Policy at Chartered Accountants Ireland