In this week’s public policy bulletin, we take a look at the first economic forecast of 2023 from the Central Bank. We also report on the Government’s announcement this week of a referendum on gender equality. In addition, we examine the latest Government bond sales from the NTMA and the signing into law of a new accountability framework for the financial services sector. Central bank forecasts lower inflation but reduced rate of growth for domestic economy   In its latest Quarterly Bulletin published this week, the Central Bank has forecasted that inflation is likely to ease to a rate of 5 percent this year. However, growth of the domestic economy is expected to slow to a rate of 3.1 percent in 2023, reducing again in 2024 to a rate of 2.9 percent according to the bulletin. Noting how “headwinds from higher inflation have tempered the pace of growth”, the Bank also points to “tighter monetary policy” in the Euro area as also affecting overall growth. Separately, the findings suggest the unemployment rate is expected to remain low, averaging at a rate of approximately 4.4 percent out to 2025, with tight labour market conditions continuing.  Government announces referendum on gender equality The Government has this week announced its intention to hold a referendum on gender equality as recommended by the Citizens’ Assembly on Gender Equality and the Special Joint Oireachtas Committee on Gender Equality. The referendum will propose amending the Constitution to enshrine the right to gender equality and to remove the current reference to ‘women in the home’. Announcing the plans as part of International Women’s Day earlier this week, the Government’s proposals on specific constitutional amendments are to be published by the end of June, with the referendum due to take place in November. NTMA raises €1.25 billion in latest bond auction The National Treasury Management Agency (NTMA) this week completed an auction of €1.25 billion worth of Irish Government bonds. The funds raised as part of the sale included €450m worth of ten-year bonds maturing in 2032, carrying a yield of 3.133 percent. In addition, €800m was also raised as part of the sale of treasury bonds maturing in 2037, carrying a yield of 3.37 percent. With the completion of this week’s auction, the NTMA has so far issued a total of €4.75 billion in benchmark bonds during 2023. New accountability framework for financial services sector signed into law On Thursday of this week, the Central Bank (Individual Accountability Framework) Act 2022 was formally signed into law by the President. The new legislation will place statutory obligations on certain customer-facing firms and senior individuals within them to set out clearly where responsibility and decision-making lies in what is termed as a new ‘Senior Accountability Executive Regime’ (SEAR). In addition, the Act also includes enhancements to the existing fitness and probity regime as well as providing for stronger Central Bank enforcement capabilities. Elements of the new regime will be enforced immediately and the Central Bank is expected to publish regulations and guidance around them shortly.

By Susan Rossney, Chartered Accountants Ireland Accountants play a key role in making sure their clients and business partners can spot, avoid and act on greenwashing. ‘Greenwashing’ is where a company presents a false or misleading image to persuade the public that its products, aims or policies are more environmentally friendly than they actually are. Greenwashing is on the rise for a number of reasons. More and more companies want to take advantage of the growing public concern for environmental issues, a concern which has created a fast-growing market for green products. Companies that wish to attract talent know they can benefit from a competitive advantage over their peers by advertising their commitment to the environment. Other incentives include a desire to convince critics or stakeholders that a company is well-intentioned. There is also a rising appetite among investors for green projects. The IMF noted in its October 2021 Global Financial Stability Report that sustainable investment funds doubled in the four years up to 2021. It also noted that up to $20 trillion of new sustainable investments would be required to achieve global climate goals by 2050.   Greenwashing is dangerous and unethical because it misleads investors and consumers who are genuinely looking to buy environmentally friendly products or to join or trade with environmentally minded companies. Greenwashing aims to capitalise on consumers’ willingness to sacrifice a saving by paying what is often a premium for ‘green’ products. It weakens the efforts of those businesses actually working to create a better world. Greenwashing also represents a serious risk to businesses when misleading activities are exposed. In How Greenwashing Affects the Bottom Line, HBR authors cited that 42 percent of green claims from Europe were exaggerated, false, or deceptive, and could potentially qualify as unfair commercial practices under EU rules. The much publicised Volkswagen emissions-test scandal caused an almost 20 percent drop in the price of its shares and wiped more than €13bn off its market capitalisation.  Other high profile examples include HSBC, when the UK Advertising Standards Authority (ASA) upheld greenwashing accusations about environmental claims; Tesco, which was rebuked over greenwashing in adverts for plant-based food; and Asos, Boohoo and George at Asda, which were all investigated over their eco-friendly claims. In its 2021 report mentioned above, the IMF noted that proper regulatory oversight and verification mechanisms were essential to prevent financial companies making misleading claims concerning their environmental credentials. To combat greenwashing, regulators have begun to introduce proposals to protect consumers and investors. This activity gained pace in 2022. In August, the US Security Exchange Commission (SEC) launched the Climate and ESG Task Force in order to fight misleading ESG disclosures. In October, the UK’s Financial Conduct Authority (FCA) proposed a package of new measures to protect consumers and improve trust in relevant investment products.  Potential measures include restrictions on how terms like ‘ESG’, ‘green’ or ‘sustainable’ can be used. In December China announced plans to further regulate funds claiming to be environmentally friendly. In Ireland, the Irish Auditing & Accounting Supervisory Authority (IAASA) started to tackle climate related statements made in Companies annual reports. In its recent Compendium of Financial Reporting Decisions it challenged statements made by some companies such as “Net zero by 2050” and promised reduction of carbon emissions. As these publications have traditionally dealt with accounting standards, their starting to address ESG statements is an interesting development. So how can greenwashing be avoided, and what can accountants do? With their skills of professional scepticism, rigorous attention to detail and an ability to interrogate data, accountants are ideally placed to be part of the global fight for better, decision-useful information to help business make critical investments. The key to this is transparency. Work is ongoing in creating global sustainability standards, but accountants can still make a valuable contribution to existing reports by making sure that company financial information and sustainability-related material ‘balances’. Accountants can ensure that the company is clear about what it is currently doing, what it has achieved to date and what it is likely to be able to do in the future. This can involve reviewing corporate pledges such as ‘Net Zero by 2050’ against planned investments in emissions-reduction in the company’s facilities projects and screening for emissions-heavy products in a company’s investment portfolio. When making procurement decisions, accountants also have the skills of professional scepticism, rigorous attention to detail and an ability to interrogate data to separate fact from aspiration. The following are questions accountants can ask of  their suppliers’ products and services: Does the company making the product or providing the service back up its environmentally friendly claims? Are the claims independently certified by a verified third-party, such as B-Corp or Fair Trade? Does the product use language that is vague and unspecific (for example, ‘eco-friendly’) without any description of how this is achieved? Are the claims made by a company too good to be true (for example, ‘carbon-neutral coal’)? Accountants can also increase their knowledge about the meaning of terminology such as ‘carbon neutral’, ‘climate-friendly’ and ‘nature positive’. By increasing their knowledge they can use it to critically assess claims made by companies that are not backed up by quality, third-party independent verification. Accountants can look to their professional associations, such as Chartered Accountants Ireland Sustainability Hub (which contains a useful glossary of terms and other resources) and international organisations such as Chartered Accountants Worldwide for further guidance.  

In this week’s public policy bulletin, we take a look at the Government’s Annual Employment Survey for 2022 as well as the latest inflation statistics for both Ireland and the wider Euro zone. In addition, we examine current gender pay gap trends, the latest Oireachtas Committee hearing on the effect of housing shortages on SME’s and work quality statistics from Northern Ireland. Record employment levels in companies supported by Enterprise Ireland, IDA Ireland and Údarás na Gaeltachta This week the Government released both its Annual Employment Survey for 2022 which found that jobs in client companies of Enterprise Ireland, the IDA and Údarás na Gaeltachta were now at their highest ever level, at over 529,144 jobs (up 7.3 percent on 2021 figures). According to the report, overall employment in FDI firms increased by 8.2 percent since 2021, with an additional 23,854 new jobs created. Meanwhile, employment in Irish-owned firms rose by 6 percent, recording an increase of 12,137 in new jobs since 2021. ICT services was the fastest growing sector with over a third (36.1 percent) of FDI companies operating in this space while Irish owned firms also saw the strongest growth in ICT with a 7.9 percent increase since 2021, or 2,082 full time jobs. Irish rate of inflation increases in February while Euro zone inflation falls less than expected The annual rate of inflation in Ireland is estimated to have risen to 8 percent in the year to February 2023 – an increase of approximately 1.4 percent since January. According to the CSO’s latest Flash Estimate for the Harmonised Index of Consumer Prices, while energy prices are estimated to have decreased by 0.2 percent in February, food and transport costs both rose in the same period by 1.2 percent and 3.6 percent respectively. Meanwhile, the annual rate of inflation across the euro area slowed marginally to 8.5 percent in February from 8.6 percent in January, according to an initial estimate from Eurostat. According to the findings, sectors across the Euro-zone with the highest prices currently include food, energy and services. Report finds gender pay gap of 12.6 percent across 500 companies An analysis of up to 500 firms based in Ireland that published gender pay gap reports in December has found that a mean gender pay gap of 12.6 percent exists. As set out in a report published this week by PwC Ireland, while the reasons for the gap vary, a key factor appears to be the higher number of men working in certain sectors. Specifically, the proportion of women to men tends to be lowest in the engineering, construction, manufacturing and technology sectors. By contrast, the lowest gaps were recorded in retail, health and charity organisations. The full report is available here. Housing shortages labelled the “greatest challenge” currently facing SME’s at Oireachtas hearing In its opening statement at a hearing of the Joint Oireachtas Committee on Enterprise, Trade and Employment this week, Chambers Ireland asserted that the “greatest challenge” facing small and medium enterprises this year is the lack of available talent which is driven by affordable and appropriate housing being unavailable across most of the country. Noting how the domestic market has been fundamentally constrained by this lack of housing, the organisation outlined how “although we are growing as an economy, we are not growing at the pace we could grow” if the housing supply issue was to be adequately addressed. Chartered Accountants Ireland last week launched a joint paper with housing charity Focus Ireland on how to improve supply in the private rental sector. Latest work quality in Northern Ireland statistics released  The latest statistics on work quality in Northern Ireland was published this week by the Northern Ireland Statistics and Research Agency. The publication provides statistics for eight work quality indicators: earnings, secure employment, neither under/over employed, job satisfaction, meaningful work, career progression, employee involvement in decision-making and flexible working. Finding that five of the eight work quality indicators have had significant increases since 2020, notable differences however emerged when analysing by age and sex. For example, while career progression has been consistently higher for employees aged 18 to 39 than those aged 40 and over, meaningful work has also been consistently higher for female employees than for male employees with the difference increasing from two percentage points in 2020 to eight percentage points in 2022. 

In this week’s public policy bulletin, we take a look at the latest statistics on employment levels and pension coverage in the State. We also examine the UK government’s launch of a new investment in Northern Ireland’s cyber security industry as well as the latest Labour Force Survey results for the region. In addition, we review inflation levels across the Eurozone as reported this week by Eurostat. Record employment levels reported in fourth quarter of 2022 According to the latest Labour Force Survey statistics released by the CSO, 68,600 new jobs were created in Ireland in the 12 months to quarter 4 2022. Total employment currently stands at 2.57 million – representing the highest number of persons employed in the State since the CSO’s Labour Force Survey began in 1998. The latest survey also outlines how the regions have largely driven the current jobs growth - with employment outside of Dublin increasing by 61,500 in the year to quarter 4 2022. While most economic sectors had greater numbers in employment in Q4 2022 than when compared to pre-pandemic levels, some sectors saw decreases in employment such as education (down 3.2 percent) and agriculture (down 5.7 percent). Two thirds of workers have some form of pension coverage outside of State pension Two thirds of people aged between 20 and 69 have some form of private pension on top of the State Pension, according to a new report from the CSO. Of this cohort, 73 percent have an occupational pension only, 10 percent have a personal pension only while approximately 17 percent report having both. Of the occupational schemes, 62 percent were defined contribution, 32 percent were defined benefit and 6 percent were hybrid (i.e. a combination of defined benefit and defined contribution type schemes). Overall levels of pension coverage however remain largely unchanged from 2021, with the greatest level of coverage being seen amongst workers aged 45-54 (77 percent) and the lowest degree of coverage reported amongst workers aged 20-24 (31 percent). UK government announces £18.9 million investment in Northern Ireland’s cyber security industry The UK Government has announced an £18.9 million investment in NI’s Cyber Security industry, including £11 million Government funding through the New Deal for Northern Ireland, to develop a pipeline of cyber security professionals in NI as well helping businesses and start-ups develop new opportunities. The investment will see the creation of a new Cyber-AI Hub at the Centre for Secure Information Technologies (CSIT) in Belfast designed to create jobs and support the research and development of AI-enabled cyber security projects in the region. In addition, the programme of investment will involve the creation of a Doctoral training programme and Masters degree bursaries designed to deliver on the Government’s pledge of creating 5,000 cyber professionals in NI by 2030. Latest Northern Ireland NEET statistics released (young people who are not in education employment or training)   According to the latest Labour Force Survey released by the NI Statistics and Research Agency, there were an estimated 18,000 young people aged 16 to 24 years in Northern Ireland who were not in education, employment or training (NEET) in October to December 2022. This was equivalent to 9 percent of all those aged 16 to 24 years in the region. By comparison, the proportion of young people who were NEET in the UK during the same period was 11.6 percent. In October to December 2022 there were an estimated 13,000 young people aged 16 to 24 years in Northern Ireland who were NEET and who were not looking for work and/or not available to start work (economically inactive). Rate of inflation reduces across Euro zone in January Inflation in the Euro area stood at 8.6 percent in January 2023, down from 9.2 percent in December according to Eurostat, the statistical office of the European Union. Overall, annual inflation fell in eighteen Member States while rising in nine. The lowest rates were registered in Luxembourg (5.8 percent), Spain (5.9 percent), Cyprus and Malta (both 6.8 percent) while the highest rates were recorded in Hungary (26.2 percent), Latvia (21.4 percent) and the Czech Republic (19.1 percent). According to the Eurostat findings, inflation in Ireland (as measured by the Harmonised Index of Consumer Prices which allows for comparisons across the EU) stood at 7.5 percent. The full report can be accessed here.

Paper has been submitted to Government and calls for accelerated delivery of social, affordable, and cost rental housing   Immediate short term tax measures vital to stem the flow of a record numbers of families becoming homeless  23 February 2023 – Focus Ireland and Chartered Accountants Ireland have today launched a briefing paper which calls on the Government to introduce targeted measures to keep small-scale landlords in the private rented market to help ease the housing crisis.   The new paper gives further credence to the report by the National Economic and Social Council (NESC) at the end of last week which recommended the Government consider further action to improve the tax treatment of landlords.   While Focus Ireland and the Institute agree that the long-term government objective of increasing the delivery of social, affordable, and cost rental housing is the correct course of action, the joint briefing paper highlights the short-term challenge presented by the large-scale departure of private landlords now taking place.   The paper calls for urgent measures to address this mismatch in supply. It sets out seven fully costed proposals primarily using tax policy as a lever to encourage small-scale landlords to remain in the residential rental market in the medium to long term and help to prevent homelessness.   Commenting Pat Dennigan, CEO of Focus Ireland said:  “One of the biggest causes for families becoming homeless in recent times is that they are losing their homes in the private rented market as landlords are selling up and leaving the market. Focus Ireland believes that the Government must take action to encourage small-scale landlords to stay in the market as this would help to cut the record number of households becoming homeless. Urgent policy responses are required which should be targeted at landlords who are considering evicting their tenants to sell over the next number years, convincing them it is in their interest to stay, or not to evict when they are selling.”   Commenting Dr Brian Keegan, Director of Public Policy, Chartered Accountants Ireland said: “Small landlords are an essential feature of a fully functioning residential property market, and properties owned by these landlords are more likely to be in regional, less densely populated parts of the country, providing much needed rental stock in areas that are not as attractive to institutional investors. Renting as an investment is becoming less attractive for these smaller landlords however. Increased regulation in recent years has been driven by efforts to provide greater security for tenants in the face of a shortage of rental accommodation, but in many cases, these have increased the likelihood of small landlords leaving the market, exacerbating problems they were intended to remedy.”   “Small-scale landlords cite the restrictive taxation obligations on any rental profits accruing to them. After settling taxes on any profits, some small landlords face a current loss on rental income. We are asking for Government and its agencies to consider our proposals for the small-scale private landlord to encourage their continued involvement in the market to ensure tenants are protected.”   The proposals outlined in the joint briefing paper include:  Increase wear and tear rates from 12.5 percent to 25 percent per annum to facilitate investment in the maintenance of properties and encourage better standards where renovations do not result in the termination of an existing tenancy under section 34 and the property remains in the private rental market for the following five years.  100 percent capital allowances for retrofitting costs in the year of work where landlords retrofit a property to improve its energy rating, where renovations do not result in the termination of an existing tenancy under section 34 and the property remains in the private rental market for the following five years.  Parity in taxation of corporate and individual landlords: a flat rate of 25 percent on Case V income for small landlords who opted to become ‘professional landlords’ by waiving their rights under section 34 of the Residential Tenancy Act (2014), giving additional security to their tenants.   Deduction for LPT: allow local property tax as a deduction against rental income.   Align allowable rental expenses with normal trading deductions: expenses available for deduction against rental income should become less prescriptive and more in line with normal trading deductions. In the context of taxing rental profits earned by an active class of professional landlords, the broader based deduction for financing costs under Case I principles should apply.   Succession reliefs: Professional landlords should be given access to succession reliefs, such as CGT retirement relief available to other business owners, to improve the long term investment proposition of the residential rental business.   CGT relief for rental properties acquired with tenants-in-situ: CGT relief of four percent per annum would accrue on an annual basis for the length of time the asset remains as a rental property.  Download the paper here.  ENDS     

In this week’s public policy bulletin, we examine the rise in consumer prices recorded by the CSO together with the latest statistics on the Irish rental market. We also take a look at the recommendations to Government made by the National Economic and Social Council on the potential for improving the tax treatment of landlords. In addition, we review the latest labour market statistics for Northern Ireland as well as taking a look at the European Commission’s 2023 Winter Economic Forecast. Consumer prices rose by 7.8 percent over the 12 months to January 2023 According to the CSO’s latest Consumer Price Index released this week, prices for consumer goods and services in January 2023 increased by 7.8 percent on average when compared with January 2022. However this was down from 8.2 percent recorded in the 12 months to December 2022. While prices have been rising on an annual basis since April 2021 (with annual inflation of 5 percent or more recorded in each month since October 2021) this is the third straight month where the annual rate of inflation has fallen. The most significant increases in the year were seen in Housing, Water, Electricity, Gas & Other Fuels while price decreases were recorded in education. You can read the full statistical release here. Rents increased 13.7 percent nationwide during 2022 Rents nationwide have increased by 13.7 percent in the past year according to findings produced in the latest Daft.ie Rental Price Report to Quarter 4 2022. In what the report labels a “grim” rental market starved by a lack of supply, the total number of rental properties available in Ireland stood at below 1,100 as of 1 February. This is down 22 percent on the same date last year and represents approximately one quarter of the average level of availability seen during 2015 to 2019. At €1,733 per month, the average rent at the end of last year was 126 percent higher than the low point of €765 recorded in late 2011. The full report may be accessed here. National Economic and Social Council (NESC) advises reform of the tax treatment of landlords This week the NESC published a report into the private rental sector in which it argued that there may be a case for providing ‘a more favourable tax treatment for landlords’ to tackle the current shortage of supply in the market. Noting that ‘a targeted response beyond seeking to increase total supply of all kinds of housing’ is required to address current rental property shortages, the report suggests that any new tax measures could be linked to an improved security of tenure for tenants. Moreover, the report recommends that efforts to bring vacant properties back into use should be 'stepped up' and offers the best way to alleviate the rental crisis in the short term. Latest Northern Ireland labour market statistics released The latest labour market statistics release for Northern Ireland showed that payrolled employee numbers and earnings have both increased over the past year. The number of employees receiving pay through HMRC PAYE in NI in January 2023 was 785,400, a 0.1 percent increase over the month and a 2.0 percent increase over the year. Earnings from HMRC PAYE indicated that NI employees had a median monthly pay of £2,012 in January 2023, an increase of £4 (0.2 percent) over the month and an increase of £76 (3.9 percent) over the year. Meanwhile, the claimant count rate remained unchanged for the ninth consecutive month with the seasonally adjusted number of people on the claimant count standing at 35,900 (3.8 percent of the workforce) as of January 2023. EU economy set to avoid recession according to Winter 2023 Economic Forecast According to the European Commission’s Winter Economic Forecast released this week, the bloc will ‘narrowly avoid the technical recession that was anticipated at the turn of the year’. Noting how despite exceptional adverse shocks, the EU economy avoided the fourth-quarter contraction projected in its previous Autumn Forecast, the Commission’s current projections have now lifted the growth outlook for this year to 0.8 percent in the EU and 0.9 percent in the euro area. Moreover, the forecast also slightly lowers the projections for inflation in the EU for both 2023 and 2024 with inflation now expected to fall to 6.4 percent in 2023 (down from 9.2 percent in 2022) and to 2.8 percent in 2024. In the euro area, it is projected to decelerate from 8.4 percent in 2022 to 5.6 percent in 2023 and to 2.5 percent in 2024.