In this week’s public policy bulletin, we review a report on the current state of the residential rental market as well as the findings from the latest Personal Loans Report issued by the Banking and Payments Federation Ireland. In addition, we take a look at the Government’s transfer of further Exchequer revenues into the National Reserve Fund, the launch of a government consultation on cryptoasset regulation in the UK, and the latest statistical report on real household income from the OECD. Up to 21,000 property transactions linked to landlords exiting rental market in past year According to a new report from Sherry Fitzgerald, approximately 21,000 property transactions last year involved investors exiting the rental market. Publishing the findings of its latest Residential Market Review, the estate agent outlined how for every investor entering the rental sector during 2022, another three investors left. The report sets out how this trend is having a perilous impact in terms of rental supply, and “without significant Government intervention we can expect to see even lower stock levels in the rental market in the year ahead”. You can access the full report here. €1.6 billion in personal loan drawdowns made in 2022 The Banking & Payments Federation Ireland (BPFI) this week published its Personal Loans Report for Quarter 4 2022 which showed a total of €1.6 billion in personal loan drawdowns having been made in Ireland during 2022. This figure marks an almost 19 percent increase on the previous year and the highest figure since the data series began in 2020. In terms of loan types, some €126 million was drawn down in home improvement loans in Q4 2022, 8.7 percent more than in the same period of 2021. The value of personal loan drawdowns for car or auto finance rose by 18 percent year on year to €126 million while the value of loans for other purposes which includes loans for education, holidays and weddings increased by 16.8 percent year on year to €142 million.  Government transfers €4 billion to National Reserve Fund Following a decision made as part of Budget 2023 last September, the Government this week announced the transfer of €4 billion of Exchequer funds into the National Reserve Fund. The move follows the transfer of €2 billion last year and brings to €6 billion the total amount of cash now sitting in the so-called rainy-day fund. The approach of capitalising the reserve fund is endorsed by the Department of Finance in its analysis entitled “De-Risking the Public Finances – Assessing Corporation Tax Receipts” published in September 2022. It is also supported by the Irish Fiscal Advisory Council and all other institutions that provide economic advice to Government. Launch of government crypto-asset consultation The UK government has this week launched a consultation paper on its proposals to regulate cryptoassets.  According to the paper, the proposals seek to deliver on the ambition to place the UK’s financial services sector at the forefront of cryptoasset technology whilst managing potential consumer and stability risks. The government’s proposals intend to include the regulation of cryptoassets within the overall regulatory framework established by the UK’s Financial Services and Markets Act 2000 (FSMA) thereby “taking advantage of the confidence, credibility and regulatory clarity” that this existing system affords. Stakeholders are invited to submit responses to the consultation before the process closes at 9am on 30 April. Real household income increased for first time since 2021 across OECD Real household income per capita grew by 0.2 percent in the OECD in the third quarter of 2022, the first rise in real household income since the first quarter of 2021. However, household income results were mixed on a country-by-country basis according to the latest OECD Growth and Economic Wellbeing Report. Of the 21 countries for which data is available, nine recorded an increase in real household income per capita whilst twelve recorded a fall. Austria had the largest increase (10.1 percent) as payments associated with the government’s environmental tax reform and cost-of-living assistance boosted household incomes. Of the G7 economies for which estimates are available, France, Germany and Italy all recorded growth in the third quarter of 2022, with France seeing the highest increase at 0.8 percent. By contrast, real household income per capita fell in Canada and the United Kingdom and was flat in the United States.

In this week’s public policy bulletin, we take a look at the latest ECB interest rate hike together with economic statistics for the Eurozone from Eurostat. We also examine the latest on the Government’s Ukraine Credit Guarantee Scheme as well as the CSO’s unemployment rate statistics for January. In Northern Ireland, we take a look at current enrolments in the Essential Skills programme, and in Europe we outline details of the EU Commission’s new approach to enforcing GDPR compliance across the bloc. ECB raises interest rates again The European Central Bank has again hiked its interest rates – this time by half a percentage point, raising its headline lending rate to 3 percent. Moreover, the ECB signalled its intention to raise interest rates by a further 0.5 percent next month.  In a press release issued by the bank, the Governing Council outlined its view that “keeping interest rates at restrictive levels will over time reduce inflation by dampening demand and will also guard against the risk of a persistent upward shift in inflation expectations”. The bank confirmed its intention to “stay the course in raising interest rates significantly at a steady pace and in keeping them at levels that are sufficiently restrictive to ensure a timely return of inflation to its 2% medium-term target”. You can read the full press release here. Eurozone economy avoids contraction as a result of Ireland’s strong performance According to Eurostat, the official statistical office of the EU, the Eurozone avoided recession last year largely thanks to a better-than-expected economic performance from Ireland. Despite growth contracting in Germany (Europe’s largest economy) by 0.2 percent, the Eurozone’s overall growth figure for last year rose to 3.5 percent – outpacing both the US and China. Without Ireland, the eurozone economy would have contracted by approximately 0.1 percent. You can read the full statistical release here. BOI announced as first official lender in Ukraine Credit Guarantee Scheme Bank of Ireland have been announced as the first official lender to the market for the Ukraine Credit Guarantee Scheme. Launched as part of the government’s strategy to assist businesses effected by the crisis in Ukraine, the Ukraine Credit Guarantee Scheme will facilitate up to €1.2 billion in lending to eligible businesses. Some of the key features of the new scheme include: no personal guarantee or collateral required for loans up to €250,000 loans of up to €1 million, for terms of up to 6 years reduced interest rates (vs standard market rates) available until 31 December 2024 and includes famers, fishers and small mid-caps The scheme is open to SMEs, primary producers and small mid-caps (defined as businesses with up to 499 employees). In order to qualify for the scheme, the borrower will have to declare that costs have increased by a minimum of 10 percent on their 2020 figures and that the loan is being sought specifically as a result of difficulties being experienced due to the Ukraine crisis. Further information on the scheme can be found om the Department of Enterprise, Trade and Employment website. Unemployment rate for January 2023 was 4.4 percent – CSO The latest statistical release from the CSO on unemployment in Ireland recorded a rate of 4.4 percent in January 2023, a drop from the rate of 4.9 percent seen in January 2022. Breaking down this figure in more detail, the seasonally adjusted number of persons unemployed totalled 118,300 in January 2023 – with 58,700 of these comprising unemployed males and 59,600 comprising unemployed females. The report also recorded an increase in youth unemployment (persons aged 15-24) which rose to 10.4 percent, a 0.2 percent rise since December of last year. The full statistical release can be found here. Enrolments in ‘Essential Skills’ courses up after several years of decline – NI Department of the Economy Enrolments in essential skills courses, funded by the Department of the Economy NI, have increased in 2021/22 following a number of years of declining registrations. Established as part of the Department’s strategy to improve adult literacy, numeracy and ICT skills, essential skills courses are delivered by accredited tutors working in Further Education (FE) Colleges, private training providers and community organisations. According to a bulletin issued by the Department this week, the previous decline in enrolments arose for a variety of reasons, including a dip in the 16-19-year-old population (the main age group taking essential skills courses), improvements in GCSE grades, as well as Covid-19 related grading arrangements/restrictions. Figures show that while the number of enrolments fell each year from 30,430 in 2017/18 to 23,825 in 2020/21, an increase of 0.5 percent was recorded in 2021/22 bringing new enrolments up to 23,932. European Commission steps up reporting requirements for data protection regulators Following a complaint from the Irish Council of Civil Liberties (ICCL) to the European Ombudsman, the EU Commission has this week committed to monitoring the progress of every large-scale GDPR case that arises across Member States. According to the Commission, it will now measure how long each procedural step in a case is taking by requesting regular reports (every 2 months) on what steps the relevant data protection authorities are taking to progress the case. While the results of the reviews will be strictly confidential, the specific kinds of data received will be published by the Commission.

In this week’s public policy bulletin, we take a look at the ESRI’s analysis of the potential introduction of a universal basic income in Ireland. We also review the findings of the latest Consumer Sentiment Index from the Irish League of Credit Unions. In addition, we examine the CSO’s report on the number of homes built in 2022 as well as the latest Northern Ireland business demography statistics and launch of the new Northern Ireland Skills Council. ESRI estimate introduction of universal basic income would cost €50 billion per year In its opening remarks to a meeting of the Oireachtas budgetary and oversight committee this week, the ESRI forecasted that the introduction of a universal basic income (UBI) in Ireland could cost up to €50 billion per year to sustain. Commenting on the report of the Commission on Taxation and Welfare (which did not favour the introduction of a UBI) the ESRI noted that while “a UBI would avoid situations where people choose not to work in order to retain means-tested benefits”, its implementation “is likely to be very expensive, even if other existing benefits (such as unemployment benefits) are no longer required”. Moreover, the ESRI pointed out, “the net impacts of a UBI on labour supply are unclear”. Read the full statement to the committee here. Consumer sentiment at 7-month high – Irish League of Credit Unions Irish consumer sentiment rose strongly in January as a softening in oil prices, strong domestic economic data and a seasonal switch-off from business and political news encouraged a less negative view of the financial circumstances of Irish households, according to the latest Consumer Sentiment Index from the Irish League of Credit Unions. Registering a score of 55.2 on the Index (up from 48.7 In December 2022) the improved consumer sentiment mirrors gains in similar confidence measures taken in the US that likely reflected falling fuel costs as well as Germany where fiscal supports may also have played a role. In contrast, UK consumer confidence weakened in January reflecting growing negativity about the economy and concerns about the health of the public finances.  CSO confirms 29,815 new homes built in 2022 In its latest statistical release, the CSO has confirmed that 29,851 new homes were built in Ireland last year, an increase of 45.2 percent from 2021 and 41.3 percent up from 2019, pre-pandemic. The number of apartments completed in 2022 was 9,166, up 78.7 percent from 2021. According to the figures, all regions of the country saw a yearly increase in completion of more than 20 percent, at least while the Dublin region saw a 65.1 percent yearly increase. Interestingly, the release also shows that the average new dwelling size is continuing to gradually fall year on year. The average new dwelling size for 2022 is three-quarters of what it was in 2016 with the CSO identifying the decrease as being “driven by both an increase in the proportion of completed dwellings being apartments and a decrease in the size of single and scheme dwellings”. Northern Ireland business demography statistics 2021 released The latest Northern Ireland Business Demography statistics for 2021 were released this week by the Northern Ireland Statistics and Research Agency (NISRA). According to the statistics, there were 6,655 business births in Northern Ireland during 2021, an increase of 17.4 percent on the previous year. Meanwhile, there were 5,200 business deaths in Northern Ireland in 2021, an increase of 24.6 percent on the previous year. Notably however, Northern Ireland’s business death rate in 2021 (8.0 percent) remained lower than the other three UK regions. Scotland and Wales saw their highest business death rates since the series began in 2005 while business death rates in England are at their highest since 2017. Department of the Economy announces establishment of Northern Ireland Skills Council The Department of the Economy has launched a call for applicants to the Northern Ireland Skills Council – a new advisory body designed to provide strategic advice to ministers of the Northern Ireland Executive on issues relating to the development and implementation of skills policy in the region. While the new Council will primarily focus on skills strategy, it will also consider the broader context of the importance of skills in meeting the objectives of the Programme for Government and the economic vision for Northern Ireland. The Department has formally launched a public appointments competition for a chair and eight members of the Council with the specification seeking candidates “with a track record of working across a broad network of stakeholders and applying evidence-based analysis to inspire transformative change”. Closing date for applications is 12pm, Thursday 9 February with details on how to apply available at the Department of the Economy website.

In this week’s public policy bulletin, we take a look at the Government’s Spring legislative programme as well as the newly released ‘Report on Banking’ from the Oireachtas Committee on finance. In addition, we examine a report from the ESRI on migrant wage gaps as well as the latest labour market statistics for Northern Ireland. We also outline details of the EU Commission’s new ‘Talent Booster Programme’, due to take effect this year. Government launches its Spring 2023 legislative programme This week saw the Government launch its Spring legislative programme in which the policy priorities of Cabinet for the coming Dail term were set out. Listing 38 bills in total, issues which have been earmarked for “priority publication” include provisions for the introduction of an Automatic Enrolment Retirement Savings System aimed at ensuring future generations do not face an income cliff edge at retirement age. In addition, the Planning & Development Bill and the Land Value Sharing and Urban Development Zones Bill have also been tabled as part of the Government’s ‘housing for all’ strategy. The full legislative programme is available here. Oireachtas committee ‘Report on Banking 2022’ released The Joint Committee on Finance, Public Expenditure and Reform this week released its ‘Report on Banking 2022’ in which it examined a range of issues in the banking sector including the withdrawal of Ulster Bank and KBC from the Irish market, the tracking mortgage scandal and banking remuneration policy. Noting how public trust in the sector remained “extremely low”, the all-party committee report outlined how the removal of the cap on pay and bonuses is inappropriate and that such a policy change could be "damaging to public confidence in the regulation of the sector” and would “not address longstanding customer issues." ESRI report finds ‘significant migrant wage gap’ New ESRI research funded by the Department of Children, Equality, Disability, Integration and Youth has found that while non-Irish nationals as a whole earned 22 percent less per hour than Irish nationals, East European workers earned, on average, 40 percent less than Irish workers in the period 2011-2018. The report notes that while part of this wage gap can be explained by differences in social and demographic characteristics (e.g., education level, type of job etc), even after these differences are accounted for, East Europeans still earn 20.5 per cent less than Irish nationals.  Moreover, the report found that non-Irish women experience a double earnings penalty. Non-Irish women earn 11 per cent less than non-Irish men, who in turn earn 18 per cent less than Irish men. This means non-Irish women earn 30 per cent less than Irish men. Latest Northern Ireland labour market statistics released The Northern Ireland Statistics and Research Agency this week released its latest batch of labour market statistics for the region. According to the results, the number of employees receiving pay through HMRC PAYE in NI in December 2022 was 783,800, a 0.2 percent increase over the month and a 2.0 percent increase over the year. When considering employees by age, the 25-34 age group is the only group yet to return to pre-COVID levels, remaining 0.4 percent below March 2020 numbers. The statistics also showed that in December 2022, the seasonally adjusted number of people on the claimant count was 36,900 (3.9 percent of the workforce) – marking the fourth consecutive monthly increase in the claimant count. EU Commission launches new ‘Talent Booster Mechanism’ In the face of sharp declines in working age populations and a growing skills gap across the bloc, this week the EU Commission launched a new initiative aimed at addressing these issues. The ‘Talent Booster Mechanism’ will aim to help pilot regions in a talent development trap develop, monitor and implement regional strategies to become more talent attractive and identify projects most cost effective to address the situation. It will also help regions at risk of falling in a talent development trap design strategies to adapt to demographic transition and identify reforms to address the situation. According to the Commission, currently 82 regions in 16 Member States are severely affected by inefficiencies in their labour markets, declines in their working age populations and a lack of university graduates. 

Originally posted on Business Post 3 December 2023.  Nobody wants to be seen to profit from the housing crisis, but everyone loses out if we insist on retaining the tax status quo. You cannot profit from the housing crisis. This seems to be the guiding principle behind the reported resistance by Fine Gael to introducing any form of tax relief which might help address the property supply problems. This aversion to property tax incentives is a consequence of the great recession a decade ago. It doesn’t seem to be the amount involved that presents the problem, as much as the very notion that a property incentive could be part of a solution to a current market failure. Big income tax reliefs for rented residential accommodation, renewal projects for cities and towns, holiday cottages and student accommodation contributed to the property boom and subsequent crash. Many houses and apartments derived their value not from their location or the accommodation they offered, but from the attractiveness of the tax relief on their purchase. As a 2006 review of property tax incentives by Indecon, the economic consultants, put it, in addition to increasing investment in projects, “the tax incentives had led to an increase in site prices, financial returns to promoters and property prices”. That Indecon report was one of a number of reviews into tax incentives commissioned by the government in 2005, amid alarm that Ireland had (yet again) overdone the whole property tax break thing. The reversal of the tax reliefs agenda started in 2006, but by that time it was too late to manage the popping of the property bubble in an orderly way. The chaos that ensued in the following few years has eclipsed another memory: that these property incentives contributed to improved housing supply. Analysis by the Economic and Social Research Institute found that persistent increases in supply and demand from the early 2000s resulted in housing supply averaging 84,000 units per annum between 2005 and 2007. Think of how an average supply of 84,000 units per annum now would help the current situation. Of course, it is too simplistic to attribute supply levels of this order solely to a favourable tax regime. In the previous decade when government got nervous about the housing market, the 1998 Bacon report identified that the key drivers of the housing market were economic growth, demography, cost of finance and the speed of the supply response. Now the problem driver is the lack of speed of the supply response, despite the recent interest rate rises. Unlike government interventions in the property market over the last 40 years, the tax system is not currently being used as a lever of government policy. While there have been adjustments to the stamp duty regime in favour of residential property development as compared to commercial development, and in recent weeks some tinkering with the refurbishment rules for landlords, there has been no broadly-based incentive introduced which might foster property supply. The Department of Finance’s own guidelines on tax incentives say that any new relief must be prompted by market failure, time-bound and re-evaluated on an ongoing basis to ensure that they continue to fulfil their intended purpose. How much more does the market need to fail by before tax reliefs are put back on the agenda? Previous tax reliefs have primarily been directed towards the buyer by granting future tax deductions from the purchase cost. Now the priority should be for measures that reduce development costs, ease cashflow concerns and make investment more appealing. During the pandemic we warehoused tax debt effectively to promote business survival. The same could be done for the construction sector by offering PAYE and Vat payment deferral associated with wages and materials costs incurred as units are built. Arrears would be collected when the housing development has been completed and sold. Another possibility would be to provide enhanced tax deductions for the cost of training workers in the construction industry. Boosting allowances for investment by builders in heavy plant, machinery and safety equipment could accelerate the supply of high-quality, affordable homes. Any such allowances should be time bound, and linked and targeted to the type of high density affordable housing most needed. The great advantage of tax incentives is that they can be delivered quickly. Yet we seem to be closing off any reasonable political discourse on approaches of this type purely on ideological grounds. Well publicised fire safety and structural safety construction defects in some existing developments don’t help the case for more incentives for developers. When interest groups put forward ideas for tax breaks, the most fervent advocates are usually those who will benefit most. Yet builders and developers are not the only ones who would benefit from reducing tax costs and barriers to residential property supply. Families need homes, and employers need their workers to have decent accommodation convenient to the workplace. It is politically difficult to get away from the notion that no one should profit from the housing crisis. But it is only the exchequer that profits if we insist on retaining the tax status quo. Dr Brian Keegan is Director of Public Policy at Chartered Accountants Ireland

In this week’s public policy bulletin, we take a look at the launch of Enterprise Ireland’s 2022 annual report as well as the latest unemployment statistics for December released by the CSO. In addition, we examine the findings of the independent review into Invest NI released this week as well as details on the UK’s new Energy Bills Discount Scheme. We also take a look at the World Economic Forum’s latest Global Risks Report together with the findings of the European Parliament’s recent Eurobarometer survey. Enterprise Ireland reports creation of approximately 20,000 jobs with client companies during 2022 In its annual report for 2022 released this week, Enterprise Ireland reported the creation of 19,660 new jobs via its client companies during 2022. According to the report, client firms of Enterprise Ireland employed 218,178 people in the Irish economy overall during 2022, with over two thirds of these roles based outside Dublin. Taking account of jobs lost during the year, the net increase in employment created was 10,841 or 5 percent. The agency’s report also noted there were 161 early-stage company approvals or start-ups with funding in 2022. Drop in unemployment rate recorded in December – CSO The Central Statistics Office (CSO) recorded a drop in the rate of unemployment seen in Ireland to 4.3 percent in December 2022. In its latest Monthly Unemployment Estimates published this week, the CSO noted how this figure was down from 4.4 percent in November 2022, and significantly down from the rate of 5.1 percent seen in December 2021. The seasonally adjusted number of persons unemployed was 114,500 in December 2022 compared with 117,000 in November 2022. Moreover, according to the estimates, there was a decrease of 18,600 in the seasonally adjusted number of persons unemployed in December 2022 when compared with a year earlier. Independent review of Invest NI finds that “profound change” is needed An independent review into the efficiency and effectiveness of Invest NI, Northern Ireland's economic development agency, has found that “profound change” is needed that will require both reform and repurposing of the organisation as a whole, if it is to perform as intended. Finding that the agency is having limited impact on productivity, with considerable room for improvement in leadership, structure, operation, control and public accountability, the independent review has called for stronger governance and oversight of the body by the Department of the Economy. Launch of new Energy Bills Discount Scheme The UK government has announced a new Energy Bills Discount Scheme (EBDS) from April 2023 to April 2024 for eligible non-domestic consumers in Great Britain and Northern Ireland. The current Energy Bill Relief Scheme provides a discount on wholesale gas and electricity prices for all non-domestic consumers. This includes public sector organisations, voluntary sector organisations and businesses. With this current scheme due to come to an end in March of this year, the new scheme will come into effect from 1 April 2023 and run for 12 months, with a cap set at £5.5 billion based on estimated volumes. Worsening cost of living crisis identified as number one global risk by World Economic Forum as Europeans expect additional state supports In its latest Global Risks Report, The World Economic Forum (WEF) has identified “growing debt distress” and “a continued cost of living crisis” as the top threats to geo-economic security in the next two years. Precipitated by the global pandemic and ongoing war in Europe, a combination of energy, inflation, food and security crises have consequently created “follow-on risks” including the risk of recession across a number of economies, according to the report. Meanwhile, the European Parliament’s latest Eurobarometer survey indicates that the rising cost of living is the most pressing concern for 93 percent of Europeans with citizens surveyed highlighting a clear expectation for the EU to provide additional support measures to combat the crisis.