Comment

In an age of information overload, what websites and internet resources can someone who wants to keep up-to-date with the world of finance and financial management rely on? Here’s Cormac Lucey’s selection. For daily business news… The RTÉ website offers us the opportunity to read the daily survey of business and financial news published by the main Dublin stockbrokers. This is not just a useful survey of the previous day’s financial economic news, it also offers readers the opportunity to understand how financially literate readers view that news.   Visit www.rte.ie/news/markets/broker_reports (and check out Goodbody Stockbrokers). For detailed financial data on leading Irish corporates… I opened up an account with Davy Stockbrokers largely to get access to the company’s Weekly Book. That is a compendium of corporate data for quoted companies covering recent financial history, near-term financial forecasts and key valuation metrics. For avid financial number crunchers such as myself, it’s the equivalent of crack cocaine! Visit www.davy.ie  For an up-to-date overview of the Irish economy… The National Treasury Management Agency (NTMA) borrows money on behalf of the State. That requires regularly updating international debt investors (who may buy Irish government debt) on economic developments here. Visit www.ntma.ie (and look for ‘Investor Presentation’).  For an overview of the Northern Ireland economy… EY’s Chief Economist, Neil Gibson, provides a regular and authoritative update on what is going on up North.  Visit www.ey.com (and search for ‘EY Economic Eye: Northern Ireland’). For a global economic overview from a monetary perspective… Simon Ward, Janus Henderson’s economic adviser, uses monetary and cycle analysis to assess economic and market prospects. Visit www.moneymovesmarkets.com For general trends in financial management… Two large international consultancies offer regular publications that combine a focus on the practical problems facing financial staff in corporations with intellectual rigour.  Visit www.mckinsey.com (and search for McKinsey on Finance, which offers readers a quarterly selection of useful and stimulating articles). Visit www.bcg.com/capabilities/corporate-finance-strategy/insights, which offers regular corporate finance updates. For current developments in international markets… The Financial Times has an excellent capital markets blog (www.ft.com/alphaville), and there is an offshoot of that (www.ftalphaville.ft.com/longroom/home) on which you can (once registered) access interesting research reports from the world’s top investment banks. Another website where you can access high-level research reports from investment banks is www.savvyinvestor.net (registration required). For the technical situation of main financial markets… Steve Blumenthal, executive chair of Capital Management Group, produces a useful technical survey of the main US markets each week.  Visit www.cmgwealth.com/ri-category/on-my-radar  For financial chatter, conspiracy theories and the occasional blinding insight... It’s all available here: www.zerohedge.com  Cormac Lucey is an economic commentator and lecturer at Chartered Accountants Ireland.

As businesses across the island of Ireland grapple with the post-Brexit trading environment, any and all opportunities for growth should be grasped with both hands, writes Dawn McLaughlin. The new trading arrangements brought about by Brexit and the Northern Ireland Protocol have caused much economic and political upheaval and controversy since the turn of the year. We are all well versed by now in the arguments for and against the Protocol. However, it remains the case that businesses, in the main, are largely supportive of the new arrangements in the absence of any better solutions. While no one would claim that it is a perfect situation, for businesses in Northern Ireland – particularly those in the north-west border region – there are advantages. Being able to trade freely with the rest of the UK and into the EU and the rest of the island of Ireland is a distinct competitive advantage afforded to businesses on one side of the Derry-Donegal border that isn’t available to the other. Another positive consequence has seen north-south trade in Ireland boom since the start of 2021. It has increased by over 60%, according to the Central Statistics Office’s most recent figures. Some local businesses have begun trading with their southern neighbours for the first time, shifting supply chains and finding new markets and customers. However, many of these businesses will not have realised that they are technically exporting their goods or services, often considered to be the preserve of shipping products across the world. The Londonderry Chamber of Commerce, in collaboration with our partners at Invest Northern Ireland, Derry City and Strabane District Council, InterTradeIreland, and Enterprise North West, have established Growth North West. This partnership is developing new initiatives to help businesses grow their operations across several business areas, such as exporting and innovation. Focusing on the export journey first, experts will cover different aspects of the exporting process to show attendees how to make the most of the export opportunities available to them. Then, businesses can schedule a one-on-one appointment for a more bespoke review of their exporting needs and challenges. This covers everything from export documentation, logistics and sales prospecting to maximising social media and perfecting your pitch. Growth North West is a one-stop-shop for everything your business needs to begin expanding into new markets and trading with new customers. As well as a series of monthly webinars, a mapping exercise has been carried out detailing all available export support. As a sole practitioner, I know that keeping up-to-date with ever-changing programmes and supports is hugely time-consuming. So, to help Chartered Accountants add value and guide clients on their export journey, Growth North West will hold awareness sessions in the coming months. These sessions will be publicised through the Chamber and are open to all. We look forward to engaging with businesses of all kinds, shapes and sizes as they begin or expand their export operations. There are significant opportunities for our local firms, both beyond these shores and on our shared island. As we all grapple with the post-Brexit trading environment, any and all opportunities for growth should be grasped with both hands. Growth North West aims to deliver stimulation and growth opportunities for our region at a time of economic uncertainty and upheaval. Throughout the pandemic, firms have been innovating their services and pivoting their operations to stay afloat. Looking outwards at new export markets is one way our local businesses can positively react to both the effects of the pandemic and the UK leaving the EU. Dawn McLaughlin is Founder of Dawn McLaughlin & Co. Chartered Accountants and President of Londonderry Chamber of Commerce.

Dr Brian Keegan takes the jobs theory of David Graeber to task, arguing that he fundamentally missed the point of the work that he deemed superfluous. As we emerge from pandemic lockdowns, people are realising that at least some of the work totems that we have subscribed to all our working lives were false gods. Many (though by no means all) businesses have recognised that working from home can be a successful and efficient way to carry out white-collar work, if only for some of the time. The tumbling of the ever-present-in-the-office totem may also foster a notion that a four-day working week, for the same pay, might be just as productive as the five-day week grind. The idea is not new. John Maynard Keynes theorised in the 1930s that, with the advent of technology, we could all possibly produce as much with just a two-day working week. At least one Irish trade union is taking up the short week cudgel, but among its most vociferous advocates was David Graeber, a professor at the London School of Economics and author of Bullshit Jobs: A Theory. Graeber is possibly best known for the latter, which outlines his theory on pointless jobs that exist, as he put it, just for the sake of keeping us all working. Graeber kept a “little list” of such occupations, though in practice, it was a long list of salaried professionals whose work he thought would not be missed were they to stop doing it. A world without nurses, refuse collectors, mechanics, teachers or dockworkers would soon be in trouble. Graeber wanted to know if the same could be said if we had no lobbyists, actuaries, telemarketers or legal consultants? Or even, perhaps, accountants. Most people, irrespective of what they do, have spent Graeber-esque days wondering if their jobs have any real meaning. Graeber’s theory may not differ from other economic or management theories that encapsulate a solitary insight but get pushed too far. The Peter Principle says that everyone ultimately gets promoted to their level of incompetence, beyond which they will go no further. That doesn’t, however, describe all career trajectories or the management structure of most successful organisations. Similarly, Parkinson’s law, which posits that work expands to fill the time available, also misses a fundamental point. As society progresses and demands higher standards, the same tasks take longer because the demand is there to do them better. Graeber’s theory falls down because it misses the point of the work he deems superfluous. Every society needs its members to share a commonality of goals, aspirations and standards. There are few processes slower and more tedious than the political process, with a small ‘p’ rather than a capital ‘P’. So many of the jobs dismissed by Graeber contribute to the creation of society’s culture, structure and shared understanding. That requires a degree of patience often lacking in an anarchic perspective like his. Many such jobs are also meaningful to those who do them and thus confer dignity to their time and effort. There is a maxim among anthropologists that fish don’t see the water they swim in, so the discipline’s contribution is to point it out. Equally, however, academics and theoreticians don’t always see that they themselves are swimming in an environment supported by the kind of work decried by Graeber. So, perhaps the real contribution of Graeber’s theory is to serve as a hazard warning for the rarefied academic environment from which it emanated. But then again, maybe a four-day week isn’t such a bad idea… Dr Brian Keegan is Director of Advocacy & Voice at Chartered Accountants Ireland.

Dawn McLaughlin knows first-hand that a problem shared is a problem halved. And that is why she is utterly convinced of the positive impact of peer-to-peer networking and collaboration in professional services. Sole practitioners are no different to any other business owner. Shoulders not big enough to carry the weight of the world, they are afraid to show weakness by sharing problems. They make decisions in isolation and hope they get it right each time. They are a jack of all trades, and fire-fighting is a crucial skill developed over the years. Time is limited, and the to-do list grows longer with each passing day. This will undoubtedly strike a familiar chord with many readers. Some years back, our Institute championed the idea of bringing us together by encouraging us to establish local network clusters throughout Ireland. Accountants getting together – well, that was a challenge! The only time we spoke to our competitors was possibly over a coffee at a training session, if at all. I went to a group session in Derry with anticipation, and it was the beginning of a long relationship between like-minded individuals. As a closed group, we learned to trust one another. We shared experiences, knowledge, how-to tips, and valuable connections. Sales leads were passed for services we did not provide ourselves. Those relationships have stood the test of time. There was comfort in knowing that others feel the same and share similar issues daily. Your problem had probably already been solved by another member, and we all benefited from these relationships. Even something as simple as a group moan where we put the world to rights was therapeutic. This cluster approach proved vital during the pandemic when so many found themselves isolated. In our Chamber of Commerce, members join a sector cluster and benefit in a similar fashion. Collaboration, alliances, knowledge transfer, innovation, and synergy abound. The benefits of clusters impact each and every one of us. As a Chamber board, we provide a lead director for each cluster, a direct link with benefits flowing both ways. Accurate, timely, and relevant data flows from each cluster on skills gaps, challenges, and opportunities. As an organisation, this gives us evidence-based data to lobby on their behalf. It provides the Chamber with a stronger voice and is vital in the drive to get relevant support to where it is needed most. The benefit of clusters was evidenced locally when one of our board members identified a significant skills gap in his cluster. Welders were in short supply, and the local engineering companies were suffering. Every effort went into determining the need, getting buy-in from the local companies, and lobbying the educational establishments to develop relevant courses. A course was then created, so we had a win-win for the local college, the employers, and – more importantly – for the young people who signed up and went on to get guaranteed jobs at the end of the course. Over the years, I have witnessed many successes emanating from clusters and shared working, and I am totally convinced of their positive impact. I would encourage organisations and networks of all kinds, shapes, and sizes to develop their own clusters for the benefit of their members. For those Chartered Accountants not already connected, why not start up your own network locally? The impact can be hugely significant, and we all benefit from collaboration and sharing our experiences and knowledge. Dawn McLaughlin is Founder of Dawn McLaughlin & Co. Chartered Accountants  and President of Londonderry Chamber of Commerce.

Capital allocation and investment appraisal is a senior management team’s most fundamental responsibility, but it is easy to overstate prospective rates of return. Cormac Lucey explains. The goal of corporate investment should be to convert inputs – including money, things, ideas, and people – into something more valuable than they would otherwise be. After ten years in the position, a CEO whose company invests 10% of its existing capital stock each year will have been responsible for deploying more than half of all the capital at work in the business. This makes capital allocation and investment appraisal a senior management team’s most fundamental responsibility. In financial terms, that means that investments should generate an after-tax rate of return greater than the company’s cost of capital. Management will generally use Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) analysis to test whether a project is likely to achieve this goal. Two specific DCF measures can be estimated. If a company’s cost of capital is 7%, its investments need to generate a rate of return of at least 7% to adequately compensate investors for the risk they are exposing themselves to by investing in a company of that particular size, operating in that particular country, and in that particular sector. If the investment generates an 8% return, value is created. If the investment generates a 6% return, value is destroyed. By discounting projected future cash flows into their equivalent present values using the corporate cost of capital, net present value (NPV) quantifies the boost to shareholder value that an investment should generate. The other key DCF measure is the Internal Rate of Return (IRR). For any given set of project cash flows, IRR quantifies the cost of capital that would generate a nil NPV. The IRR measures the average annual rate of return that the project expects to generate over its life. If a project’s IRR exceeds the cost of capital, it will be expected to boost shareholder value. But there is an assumption implicit in DCF mathematics, which can lead to IRR significantly overstating a project’s prospective rate of return. The IRR approach assumes that intermediate project cash flows generated by the project (i.e. those generated after the initial investment period and before the project’s end) are themselves reinvested to generate a rate of return equal to the project’s IRR. If a company’s cost of capital is 7% and the project’s rate of return is 14%, this assumption means that surplus cash flows generated mid-project are themselves expected to be reinvested and to generate a 14% rate of return. This assumption is questionable: why should returns on surplus cash be higher just because they were generated by a high-return project? Modified Internal Rate of Return (MIRR) applies exactly the same approach to evaluating a project as IRR, except it assumes that intermediate project cash flows generate a rate of return equal to the cost of capital (rather than the project’s IRR) when reinvested. This will generally be a more realistic assumption than that underpinning IRR. Having already calculated IRR, it is a simple matter to estimate a project’s MIRR using Excel’s ‘=MIRR’ function. The difference in the measured rate of return between IRR and MIRR can be significant. Consider a simple example. Suppose we invest €1,000 today, and it is expected to generate annual after-tax cash flows of €140 for each of the next ten years, after which the project ends and we get our €1,000 investment back. The IRR of this project is 14%. But, if our cost of capital is 7%, the MIRR of the same projected cash flows would only be 11.4%. Bottom line: IRR can systematically overstate prospective project returns with its unrealistic reinvestment rate return assumption. MIRR corrects this. Cormac Lucey is an economic commentator and lecturer at Chartered Accountants Ireland.

Reform of the public sector accounting process to an accruals-based system of accounting is gaining momentum, but don’t expect the transition to be total in the short-term, warns Dr Brian Keegan. Last month, the Institute launched a report by Queen’s University Belfast academics, Prof Ciaran Connolly and Dr Elaine Stewart, into the modernisation of public sector accounting. Ireland has long managed its public finances on what essentially is a cash basis of accounting. Modernisation would migrate the State to an accruals basis for accounting for public spending. The fact of the matter is that government over the years has simply gotten bigger. There are 50,000 more people employed in the Irish public service than in 2011, and annual spending has almost doubled in that time. Despite the constant carping from opposition politicians and the commentariat, we have better education, better transport infrastructure, better regulation and governance, and better health services than we used to. All of this demands even more rigorous financial management. Recent surveys by the Chartered Institute of Public Finance and Accounting and the International Federation of Accountants note that 25% of countries worldwide have already migrated to an accruals-based system of accounting. There is an expectation that this will rise to 65% in the next few years. The UK is already operating an accruals-based system of accounting. The Minister for Finance, Paschal Donohoe TD, announced in 2019 that, in part due to OECD prompting, Ireland would undertake a similar public sector changeover. Nevertheless, as the Connolly and Stewart report notes, even the successful adoption of accruals accounting has its pitfalls. A cash-based system of accounting often suits politicians and civil servants alike. It is more difficult to explain away misspent funds or fudge budgeting processes if everything has to be tied up in neat, unaccrued bundles at the end of each year. In Ireland, these pitfalls may be particularly pronounced because we are not good at multi-year politics. Perhaps the most obvious instance of this is pension reform, where there have been at least as many reports and policy papers as there have been governments in recent times. Multi-year capital investment programmes can also fall by the wayside. The 20-year National Spatial Strategy, devised in 2002, seemed to run out of room. Both attempts to establish rainy day funds this century have yielded empty kitties. Constant change is both the glory and the weakness of the democratic process. Introducing an accruals-based accounting system will undoubtedly result in benefits in expenditure management. However, the multi-year budgeting and planning process is a different matter entirely, inextricably linked as it is with the political cycle. The process of change already underway seems to have considerable momentum, and Ireland will have better public accounting systems within the next few years. Even before the 2019 announcement, there was a process of improvement underway with the introduction of a Budget Oversight Committee and a Parliamentary Budget Office. The latter organisation does excellent work in explaining the shape of the public finances. Yet, the complete transition to the accruals basis will have to be phased in, with a long journey towards total change that will include staff training and the typically painful wrangling of recalcitrant IT systems. Arguably the most important stakeholders in this process are government ministers. They stand to benefit most from improvements in the financial management of their departments. However, great plans for long-term investment or reform too often fall by the wayside when the responsible minister loses their job at the polls. The prospects of re-election frequently depend on immediate policies with immediate spend and immediate results. It will be harder to run a political campaign on accruals accounting principles. Dr Brian Keegan is Director of Advocacy & Voice at Chartered Accountants Ireland.