Comment

As relations with the West continue to cool, China is facing economic challenges reminiscent of the Irish economy in 2008, writes Cormac Lucey Tensions are growing between the China and the US as the latter leads the West in a sharp reversal of a policy of openness and commercial integration, which continued despite concerns about military espionage and intellectual property theft.  Now, the US is reducing its interactions with China, and a wave of reshoring/friendshoring is underway in the West. Under current President Xi Jinping, China has been picking territorial fights with its neighbours and Xi has reportedly asked his military to complete preparations by 2027 to seize Taiwan by force.  Meanwhile, senior Chinese political and business leaders are disappearing suddenly with alarming frequency and non-Han ethnic minority groups, such as the Uyghurs and Tibetans, have been subject to terrible oppression.  The Chinese economy is not faring much better. When I look at China’s economic position, I think we may now be witnessing ‘peak China’.  First, the country’s enormous property/debt bubbles are beginning to deflate. Coming into 2024, China is in a similar position to Ireland circa 2008. Its economic underpinnings are dangerously fragile, the first tremors of deflation are being felt and the authorities are insisting that everything is okay.  Over the past 15 years, China’s total debt levels (public plus private) have doubled relative to economic output (GDP).  According to Numbeo, a website that analyses the cost of living across different countries, rent yields in Beijing range from 1.45 percent (city centre) to 1.69 percent (suburbs). These yields are way below the lowest levels witnessed in Ireland at the peak of our property bubble.  They are lower than Chinese interest rates, meaning that buy-to-let landlords using debt to fund their purchases will face interest charges that exceed their rental income (negative carry).  Thanks to its now defunct ‘one child per family’ policy, which ran from 1979 to 2015, China faces a demographic implosion over the coming decades. The UN forecasts that its population will decline from 1.4 billion this year to 1.3 billion by 2050 – and below 800 million by 2100.  Today, China faces the same demographic and debt-deflation challenges that confronted Japan three decades ago.  For all the messiness and dysfunction of the West, democracy does force a society’s problems onto the political agenda rather than allow them to be suppressed, and it facilitates innovation over stagnation.    Cormac Lucey is an economic commentator and lecturer at Chartered Accountants Ireland

The EU Commission’s new enlargement package sets out ambitious plans for expansion but the rule of law and defence must govern any future accession negotiations, writes Judy Dempsey It was reminiscent of 1 May 2004, when the countries of Central and Eastern Europe joined the European Union (EU).  For their citizens, that day almost 20 years ago was not just a euphoric occasion, it was about returning to Europe – an aspiration that must have seemed remote while they were under the communist yoke from 1945 to 1989. Now, the opportunity for Ukraine and Moldova to join the EU is very real, following Ursula von der Leyen’s decision to unveil an ambitious enlargement package last month. The President of the European Commission announced on 8 November that the EU would open accession negotiations with Ukraine, Moldova and Bosnia and Herzegovina, while also granting Georgia candidate country status.  It will take several years for these countries to join the EU. Leaving aside how the war in Ukraine might end, significant issues will need to be addressed in all four: corruption, the role of the oligarchs, human trafficking and the weak independence of the judiciary, for example.  EU leaders will have to give von der Leyen’s plan the green light during their December summit.  Some will baulk at how Bosnia and Herzegovina will be able to begin accession talks despite ongoing misrule and ethnic tensions among leaders of the Serb community. Backed by Russia and its neighbour Serbia, it has long sought to have its own autonomous region. Yet, for all these problems, this next enlargement should be a chance for the EU to tackle two big issues that undermine the union’s credibility.  The first is how several countries, led by Hungary and Poland, have blatantly flouted the rule of law. For several years, Budapest and Warsaw have run roughshod over the judiciary, the media and the appointment of chief prosecutors.  Hungary’s Prime Minister Viktor Orbán has misappropriated EU funds in addition to promoting his own appointees loyal to the governing Fidesz party, to universities and other educational institutions.  And this is just the tip of the iceberg. In Poland, the judiciary, media, education and private sectors have been subject to interference from the governing conservative/nationalist party.  The Law and Justice party lost the recent parliamentary elections, however, so there is a chance that the centrist Civic Coalition party may put the country back on the path of the rule of law.   This is important for countries trying to make their way into the union.  Imagine sitting in Kyiv and seeing judges intimidated or sacked in an EU member state because they don’t toe the governing party line?  Civil society activists in Ukraine and Moldova have been campaigning for many years to root out corruption and establish a transparent court and judicial system free of state interference, lobbies and oligarchs. The second issue facing the EU is how, as a bloc, it cannot defend itself.  With the current instability along Europe’s eastern borders and its southern neighbourhood, the EU lacks the capacity to defend its citizens and provide them with the security they need and which, until now, had been provided by the NATO alliance.  Soft power takes precedence over any kind of hard power despite what is happening in Ukraine. These two issues – the rule of law and defence – are about the credibility of the EU and making the bloc ready for the next round of enlargement.  Judy Dempsey is a Non-Resident Senior Fellow at Carnegie Europe and Editor-in-Chief of Strategic Europe

Accountancy Europe Board Member Shauna Greely tells us about the organisation and its work and priorities for the year ahead  Accountancy Europe is a representative body based in Brussels at the heart of the European Union and I am a Vice President and Board Member. Our focus is to give a unified voice to the accountancy profession in Europe, including Chartered Accountants across the island of Ireland, and to ensure that your perspectives, priorities and insights are heard by the policy makers, regulators and standard-setting bodies operating at a European level. For me, this is particularly important because Ireland is a proud member of the EU and I am proud to be able to represent members of Chartered Accountants Ireland in Europe. Accountancy Europe is heavily engaged with accounting standard setters, such as the European Financial Reporting Advisory Group, the International Accounting Standards Board and other key stakeholders involved in the interests of the accountancy profession. Accountancy Europe helps inform European policy debate in areas such as sustainability, SMEs, tax, reporting and audit – and promotes high-quality financial reporting, auditing and ethical standards.  One of our biggest priorities right now is combatting climate change and the crucial role sustainability reporting has to play in reducing carbon emissions and ensuring that companies are operating as sustainably as they can. I am concerned about climate change and the impacts this is starting to have on all our lives. I hope that Accountancy Europe and the profession as a whole can play its part in raising awareness about climate change impacts and sustainability, so that we can bring about positive change. It is vital that we get this right and that the right level of reporting is introduced for organisations, both large and small, across the EU.  Sustainability reporting brings to mind the saying, “What gets measured gets done”. It has such an enormously important role to play in combatting climate change and puts the accountancy profession front and centre in these efforts. This is all the more important because the younger generation of professionals coming into the workplace have a social conscience. They want to do good in their lives and in their work, and they want to be part of professions and organisations that are doing good and can attest to it. The accountancy profession is at the coalface of climate reporting and Accountancy Europe ensures that this pivotal role is represented as one voice to the European Parliament, the European Commission and the policy makers in Brussels who are shaping the future of the EU. Shauna Greely is a Senior Finance Business Partner with Ulster Bank and past President of Chartered Accountants Ireland  

IFAC Board Member Joan Curry tells us about the organisation and its work and priorities for the year ahead  The International Federation of Accountants (IFAC) is the global voice for the accountancy profession. I describe it as the members’ body for members’ bodies.  IFAC was established in 1977 at the 11th World Congress of Accountants in Germany. At that time, there was recognition that the profession needed a global voice and perspective. Now, IFAC represents 180 member and associate organisations in 135 jurisdictions, including Chartered Accountants Ireland. Its reach extends to millions of accountants worldwide.  At this high level, IFAC represents the public interest by advocating for, and amplifying, the relevance, reputation and value of our profession globally. We operate across three pillars: supporting the development, adoption and implementation of international standards; ensuring the highest-quality education for the profession; and looking to the future to identify and respond to emerging developments so that we can ensure the profession is future-ready. I joined the IFAC Board in November 2019 and am one of 23 Board Members from around the world. We govern and oversee the operations of IFAC, ensuring that its mission and vision are progressed through its organisational structures. Coming into 2024 and as the world becomes ever more connected and integrated, our priority is to ensure the continuation and enhancement of trust and confidence in the accountancy profession. This is our North Star, both at a global level and in every jurisdiction in which our members operate. To this end, we have introduced a set of reforms in recent years to help maintain the independence of standard setting. There is now a structure that allows standard setting to be developed and delivered in an independent arena, rather than under the banner of IFAC.  In creating this new structure, IFAC supports, monitors, promotes and advocates for the work of the standard-setting boards in developing independent standards across audit, assurance and ethics. These standards are directed towards the areas of greatest public interest and underpin trust and confidence in the profession. This is important in every sense but especially so given the global drive to develop sustainability reporting standards so that the profession can play its part in tackling climate change. IFAC represents the profession in supporting the delivery of the G20’s Sustainable Development Goals and ensures our voice is heard on issues with global impact, such as climate change. We will continue to be future-focused and to ensure that issues of importance to all accountants, including the younger generation, are at the heart of IFAC’s mission and vision.  We recognise the diversity of thought and inclusion required to maintain the relevance of the profession into the future and the importance of our role in envisioning how the profession will evolve and the impact we can make in the years ahead. Joan Curry is Head of Finance at the Department of Transport and a member of the Council of Chartered Accountants Ireland

Minister for Finance Michael McGrath outlines his expectations for the Irish economy and business in 2024 Over the past number of years, our economy and society have weathered multiple unprecedented challenges: Brexit, a once-in-a-century pandemic followed by the Russian invasion of Ukraine, and the associated impact on energy prices and inflation.  Yet despite all these headwinds and reinforced by Government support, our economy has proven remarkably resilient, with our labour market essentially at full employment and public finances on a positive trajectory. As we look ahead to 2024, I am encouraged by the strength our economy has demonstrated in the wake of so many external shocks.  Next year, Modified Domestic Demand (MDD) – my preferred measure of the domestic economy – is forecast to grow by 2.2 per cent. While this is lower than the growth we have experienced in recent years, it compares favourably with the outlook for many of our competitors. The increase in financing costs facing businesses because of this monetary policy tightening is unfortunately a challenge Irish business will continue to contend with in 2024.  This greater burden comes at a time in which businesses are already facing inflation at multi-decade highs.  Thankfully, there is some evidence that we have now turned a corner on inflation. Inflation is expected to continue to ease over the coming months with the rate projected to fall just below three percent next year.  It is important to note that the outlook for ‘core’ inflation – which excludes energy and unprocessed food – has proven to be more persistent as inflationary pressures have become broader.  Looking at the international picture, the balance of risk is very much tilted towards the downside.  A small, open economy like Ireland is particularly vulnerable to global economic developments. Geopolitical tensions and further changes to monetary policy are key risks facing our economy over the coming period. As Minister for Finance, one of my priorities is to ensure that businesses have the support they need amidst all these challenges.  In the lead-up to Budget 2024, I examined the tax reliefs and supports available to Irish businesses and met with, and listened to, the views of stakeholders from across the country.  Based on this, I announced a wide-ranging package of measures to support enterprise in Budget 2024.   Among these measures, I am increasing the Research and Development (R&D) Tax Credit from 25 percent to 30 percent. The first-year payment threshold is also being doubled from €25,000 to €50,000, which will provide valuable cashflow support to companies engaged in smaller R&D projects.  These amendments will ensure that Ireland remains competitive in attracting employment and investment in R&D.  I am also introducing a new targeted Capital Gains Tax relief that will allow angel investors to benefit from a reduced 16 percent rate of CGT when they dispose of a qualifying investment for gains up to twice the value of their investment.  This relief aims to encourage investment in this important sector of our economy, helping these enterprises access the necessary capital to grow and develop. In the same vein, I am also enhancing the Employment Investment Incentive Scheme by standardising the investment period to four years for all investments, and doubling the amount an investor can claim relief on for four-year investments to €500,000.  Further changes are also being made to the scheme to ensure that it is compliant with the new EU General Block Exemption Regulation.  To support Irish SMEs in engaging key employees, I have recently commenced the outstanding Finance Act 2022 amendments to the Key Employee Engagement Programme, following receipt of State aid approval from the European Commission.  This includes an extension of the scheme to the end of 2025 and doubling the amount of issued, but unexercised, qualifying shares a company can hold from €3 million to  €6 million.  In my engagement with stakeholders, a clear message has emerged: businesses find the administrative requirements of tax supports and schemes to be complex.  To examine this issue, Revenue will be establishing a subgroup of the Tax Administration Liaison Committee (TLAC).  This group will examine Revenue-administered tax schemes and reliefs for business, with a focus on identifying any opportunities to simplify and modernise the administration of business supports. It will report on its findings in the course of 2024.  My department will also undertake several reviews in 2024 to further examine how specific enterprise support reliefs and schemes can work better for Irish business.  I am very optimistic for the future of business in Ireland. The suite of enterprise tax measures announced in Budget 2024 is a sign of our commitment to ensuring that Ireland is an attractive location for start-ups and scale-ups across a range of sectors.  Michael McGrath, FCA, is Minister for Finance and a TD for Cork South Central

It is hard to see how the EU can become a major global player without embracing the reform that would lead to greater integration, says Judy Dempsey The European Union is not in good shape.  There is no agreement over migration or refugees, two issues raised more than two decades ago. The longer member states delay reforming the entire migration and asylum system, the greater the opportunity for anti-immigration and xenophobic parties to capitalise on these delays.  Current trends show that support for the far-right in France, Germany and Poland is increasing in the polls. Instead of co-opting some far-right policies, mainstream parties across Europe need to confront their rising prominence sooner rather than later.  Then there is the unending dispute over how to tackle climate change. This is linked to a radical overhaul of the energy infrastructure across the EU.  Germany and France are at loggerheads about the future of nuclear energy. Germany’s Green coalition party wants to end nuclear energy once and for all, while Berlin has plans to subsidise industry, both of which will delay the country’s transition to renewable energy.  France wants to expand nuclear power for environmental reasons, and Poland is grappling with its coal industry.  Other countries are making the costly and challenging transition to renewable energy sources. This is just the tip of the iceberg.  Eurozone countries cannot agree on further integration of the capital markets and banking system to deepen economic integration.  Take a look at the conflict between the EU Commission and Poland, Hungary and Slovakia. In September, these countries banned Ukrainian grain imports to Europe, going against the European Commission’s authority over trade matters.  As a result, it appears that Member States now hold more power than the commission itself.  It is difficult to see how the EU can become a major global player without embracing the reform that would lead to greater integration – or, at the very least, a bloc that will be more manageable when it expands to incorporate Moldova, Ukraine and the Western Balkans. Enlargement, Russia’s war against Ukraine, the uncertainty of the transatlantic relationship, the results of the 2024 US presidential election, and the rising power of China are all issues that affect Europe’s future.  A new Franco-German paper, put together by a working group of experts and released on 19 September, proposes ideas for making the EU more manageable and governable against a backdrop of pessimism. Based on the premise that there is no agreement on changing the EU treaty – which requires unanimity and, in most cases, a vote from the national parliaments (remember the Nice Treaty vote?) – the paper proposes the following: First, that a coalition of countries move ahead with a “supplementary reform treaty” and, second, that the EU be reorganised around four concentric circles consisting of: the inner circle (presumably eurozone countries);  the rest of the EU;  associate members (Ukraine, Moldova and the Western Balkans); and  the European Political Community (a loose association of European leaders that meet regularly). Given the current state of the Franco-German relationship and its impact on EU integration, it seems unlikely that this paper will be accepted.  Additionally, there are concerns about the democratic legitimacy of the EU and the accountability of its institutions. While the EU parliament has gained some influence, many citizens feel disconnected from the process.  In the face of continued uncertainty, now is the time for smaller and medium-sized countries to propose their plans for the future functioning and sustainability of the EU. Judy Dempsey is a Non-Resident Senior Fellow at Carnegie Europe and Editor-in-Chief of Strategic Europe