Comment

Annette Hughes outlines the four consumer behaviour trends that have emerged from the COVID-19 pandemic. The COVID-19 crisis is being defined by four distinct consumer behaviour responses, according to the first edition of the EY Future Consumer Index. The survey tracks consumer sentiment and behaviour across several geographies, but these four behaviours, outlined below, are all evident in Ireland and have implications for the pending economic recovery. Cut deep (27%): these consumers are mainly more than 45 years old and have seen the biggest impact on their employment status. Almost one-quarter have seen their jobs suspended, either temporarily or permanently. 78% are shopping less frequently, while 64% are only buying essentials. Stay calm, carry on (26%): these consumers do not feel directly impacted by the pandemic and are not changing their spending habits. Just 21% are spending more on groceries, compared with 18% who are spending less. Save and stockpile (35%): this segment has a particular concern for their families and the long-term outlook. 36% are spending more on groceries, while most are spending less on clothing (72%) and leisure (85%). Hibernate and spend (11%): usually aged between 18-44, these consumers are most concerned about the impact of the pandemic with 40% shopping less frequently. Rationalised personal consumption From the Irish economy’s perspective, the unprecedented impact on the labour market has a significant effect on consumer spending. Personal consumption accounts for around one-third of Ireland’s GDP. Before COVID-19, the economic recovery was associated with a healthy annual average growth in consumer spending of 3.5% over the last five years. With the categories affected by containment measures accounting for around one-half of consumer spending, according to the Central Bank of Ireland, a sharp contraction in consumer spending is expected in 2020, which in turn impacts on investment and overall GDP. Recent projections from the Department of Finance forecast that personal consumption will contract by 14.2% this year, with GDP down by 10.5% (April 2020). The impact of the pandemic on employment, supply chains, travel and tourism, and mobility has hugely reduced consumer confidence and spending – and the shock is likely to be felt for some time to come. Looking beyond the immediate effects of COVID-19, few consumers expect to revert to pre-crisis behaviours any time soon. Overall, 42% of respondents believe that the way they shop will fundamentally change as a result of the COVID-19 outbreak. Plummeting consumer confidence While these four segments could morph as the crisis abates, the adverse impact of the pandemic on consumer confidence remains. In an Irish context, the KBC Consumer Confidence Index fell to its lowest level in the survey’s 24-year history due to a combination of weak conditions and the risk of poorer prospects. 584,600 people are in receipt of the Pandemic Unemployment Payment while the unadjusted Live Register total for April 2020 was 214,741. An additional 425,204 are being facilitated through Revenue’s Temporary COVID-19 Wage Subsidy Scheme. This implies that in the region of 1.224 million people – or almost 50% of the workforce – are in receipt of some form of income support. Joined-up thinking required The recovery in consumption will depend on the extent to which the unemployment situation is reversed. Companies that were struggling to keep up with changing consumer behaviour before the pandemic are now faced with the challenge of anticipating how consumers will evolve beyond the pandemic. The Government’s roadmap to ease COVID-19 restrictions and re-open Ireland’s economy and society on a phased basis are welcome, but the pace at which different sectors and regions begin to recover will vary greatly. While smaller towns may benefit from increased local spending, online sales are likely to remain high, at least in the short-term. We must look at what business and governments can do together to help everyone get through what continues to be an incredibly difficult period to ensure that they are all ready to participate in the recovery when it comes.   Annette Hughes is an Economist and Director at EY-DKM Economic Advisory.

Des Peelo shares his one guiding principle for setting a fair professional fee. Professional fees occur in many occupations including dentists, doctors, accountants, solicitors, barristers, and architects. Public relations practitioners, management consultants, estate agents, investment bankers and technical advisers of all kinds also charge professional fees, as do lecturers and conference speakers. But how should you calculate a professional fee? There are no guidelines as such, other than custom and practice within a particular sector. Competition law prevents price-fixing within a sector. Nevertheless, norms or rules of thumb usually develop over time. Enquiry suggests that a routine GP visit costs between €55 and €70, while a medical consultant may charge between €250 and €300. An estate agent may charge 1-2% plus outlays and VAT on the sale price of a property, and an architect may charge a percentage of the project costs. Practising accountants typically charge an hourly rate for routine services such as audit, accountancy, and tax work. For more complex work, mainly carried out by larger firms, such as a major investigation or a difficult liquidation, an hourly rate of €450 per hour plus VAT has been quoted in the High Court for a partner’s time. This €450 currently seems a benchmark rate and is scaled downwards for less senior staff. In general, straightforward work such as audits for an accountant, conveyancing or probate work for a solicitor or routine dental work for a dentist is competitive, and fees fall within identifiable ranges. It is difficult, however, to generalise in linking a fee to the mix of expertise provided, responsibility taken, and the value to the client. What is the value of a careful and competent diagnosis of a malady from a GP, or a substantial tax saving through expert knowledge? What is the value of the identification and rectification of a serious IT glitch, or a crisis successfully managed by a skilled public relations practitioner? Round sum fees are common for non-routine work or work not measured in terms of time incurred. There is the story of a computer glitch that closed down an entire business. A technician arrived, turned a nut, and got the system up and running again. The bill was €1 million, and the client demanded a breakdown. The response was €100 for the hour in turning the nut, and €999,900 for “knowing which nut to turn”. Legal fees, apart from routine matters, can be a mystery – particularly in litigation. There are regular reports of substantial fees across all types of litigation. A UK judge once remarked that the Savoy Hotel and the courts are open to everyone. In my experience, this is because of the extensive input necessary in almost any litigation, such as identifying the issues and the law relating thereto; assembling the relevant documentation and preparing the required procedural paperwork; accessing expert evidence; consultations; and, of course, the actual court hearing. There is an amusing story about legal fees allegedly involving a firm of solicitors in the United Kingdom. A long and complex litigation case had come to a satisfactory conclusion, and it was time to finalise the bill. The more technical aspects had already been completed as to measuring the files at £100 per inch and weighing the files at £150 per pound. Instead, each partner had to review the files and put his or her estimate of the total fee in a sealed envelope, placed in a box. When the box was opened, the partner with the lowest estimate did not share in those fees and the partner with the highest estimate had to collect the fees. An optimum balance. Investment bankers charge astronomical fees. This is because they can. The transactions involved are mega takeovers or the funding of large projects. The enormous sums of money involved are often backed by prestigious names, not necessarily professional expertise, and this is what underpins the hefty fees. Fees of 1-3% of the amounts involved do not seem unduly high when expressed that way, but these percentages translate into millions of dollars or euro. George Bernard Shaw observed that professions were conspiracies against the laity. This, of course, does not refer to Chartered Accountants and professional fees. A guiding principle as to good professional practice is to ensure that the subsequent fee is not a surprise to the client. Service before remuneration.   Des Peelo FCA is the author of The Valuation of Businesses and Shares, which is published by Chartered Accountants Ireland and now in its second edition.

Far from being ‘nice to haves’, diversity and inclusion remain vital during the COVID-19 crisis and could be even more important in its aftermath, writes Rachel Hussey. Our collective experience during the COVID-19 pandemic has given rise to a considerable amount of discussion and analysis about how this experience will ultimately change the way we live – or want to live – when the crisis subsides. The pandemic, and our response to it, has called into question many aspects of life we took for granted. The world of work has been turned on its head. The most obvious and immediate impact is that most of us are working from home (or, more accurately, at home during a crisis trying to work). The pandemic has caused us to examine the essence of the ‘workplace’ and we are trying to imagine how the future of work during, and after, COVID-19 might look. As the pandemic begins to ease and we begin to return to our former workplaces for at least some of the time, flexibility will be more important than ever. Parents will have to manage childcare and work, possibly in the absence of schools and crèches. Traditional work practices may no longer be possible. We will need to have flexibility around work organisation, meeting times and general time planning, and allow people to control how they plan their day. This will mean not only continuing with a significant element of working from home, but also introducing genuinely agile working practices in the future. The former world of work is probably changed forever, and we cannot – and should not – seek simply to recreate it. Now we have reached the end of the beginning, the focus on diversity and inclusion has begun to re-emerge with some interesting new perspectives. Many organisations are looking at cost-cutting measures and there is a risk that diversity initiatives might be regarded as non-essential. I believe that inclusion and diversity are as – if not more – important during this crisis as they were before and will continue to be as we emerge from the current crisis. Organisations that had a strong focus on inclusion and diversity before the crisis were better equipped to deal with it when it happened. The starkest example of this is that organisations and firms that had agile working policies and practices in place, which mostly resulted from strategies around inclusion and diversity, were best placed to make the transition to working from home. Firms that resisted flexible working took longer to get set-up remotely and back to business. The last couple of months have demonstrated beyond doubt that it is possible to run a professional services firm in a dispersed way. Some partners and other leaders who may never have worked from home are now forced to do so and realise that people can be as (or even more) productive working remotely. The COVID-19 crisis has busted the myth that agile working does not work. Of interest too are the leadership traits that have been important in this crisis. They include compassion, empathy, humility, and putting other people ahead of yourself. These traits tend to be associated with women, though they are of course found in many men too, and they are becoming more highly valued at this time. Inclusive leadership is particularly essential. Managing teams remotely involves being alive to team dynamics and being mindful of people on teams who might be isolated or feel excluded. Even on video conferencing calls, inclusive leaders will try to include each team member in the discussion. Making people feel included will help maintain productivity and motivation. It has been established beyond doubt that one of the clear business benefits of diverse teams is increased innovation. Now more than ever, companies and firms need to innovate to respond to this crisis. It is, therefore, critical to focus on team composition to ensure that they have the right balance of experience, perspective, and cognitive diversity to nurture innovation and generate the best business results possible. Specific organisations recently reiterated their commitment to diversity and inclusion publicly. At some stage, and let us hope that it will be sooner rather than later, we will emerge from this crisis and companies and firms will again be competing for the top performers. Companies and firms that stay the course and keep a sharp focus on diversity and inclusion during this crisis will be best placed to attract that talent. Once the crisis is over, companies and firms that do not stay the course will have some serious catching up to do. Rachel Hussey is Chair of 30% Club Ireland and a Partner at Arthur Cox.

Some of the commercial habits that are already being formed could serve us well once the COVID-19 crisis is over, writes Dr Brian Keegan.  By now, all businesses and institutions have taken some preventative and containment measures against COVID-19 for their staff, but the early adopters of social distancing won headlines and even kudos for so doing. They were the first to tell personnel to work from home, to block staff from hosting or attending large meetings or any type of gathering, and to have placed an embargo on international travel. Those early adopters had much in common. Typically they were large, multinational, and flourished in the online sales and services environment. By contrast, the indigenous SME sector often operates within a market segment where having people work from home is not practicable. The sector is now suffering the most from the collapse in demand caused by the pandemic. We have seen epidemics before, but how well did we remember the lessons of Zika virus a few years on? Or SARS? Or swine flu? How much better are we at defending ourselves? At the time, these were serious crises, but they seem to have faded from the collective memory very quickly. That may be simply because their social and economic impact was far less pronounced than that of the current scourge, but I’m not sure the reason is as straightforward as that. It may instead be because they left no lasting behavioural changes in most of the businesses and societies they affected. Societies that did remember how bad things could get were better prepared for COVID-19. Singapore is not the most open of jurisdictions, but they read the warning signs early. Also the isolation wards built there to tackle SARS in the early years of the century were still available to hold patients ill with COVID-19, and that in turn allowed the authorities to be more prescriptive about quarantining and testing. No business, nor even a country, can (or even should) sustain the kind of “just in case” procedures, buffers and Singaporean-style infrastructure to guard against once-in-a-century pandemics. This, however, is a crisis for all of us, and we should not waste an opportunity to take some insight from it. Some of the commercial habits that are already being formed could serve us well once this crisis is over. Because the situation is changing daily, I am hesitant to be too prescriptive and not all these behaviours will sustain or improve the bottom line. Nevertheless, there is already evidence that businesses are accommodating, and staff are delivering through, more flexible working practices. This is not just about working from home where that is possible, but about varied working hours, role definition and service delivery methods. In days when demand is in decline almost everywhere, the Institute sees an upswing in demand from members for resource materials and online training. This could be down to a desire to fill empty hours, or more positively, it could be down to a broader recognition that additional skills and tools are needed for future survival. Behaviour is the hardest thing to change. The reluctance to lend or borrow, an antipathy towards speculative development, overcautious economic policy and even the rise of the gig economy can be traced back to the downturn a decade ago. The legacy of the 2007/08 recession sometimes lingers less on balance sheets than it does in the collective memory. The businesses that bounce back the fastest could well be those who are the early adopters of the new business behaviours prompted by the crisis. Just like the last recession, COVID-19 is now creating memories of its own. We will need to hang on to the positive ones. Dr Brian Keegan is Director, Advocacy & Voice, at Chartered Accountants Ireland.

It is important, and indeed useful, to remind ourselves about the business case for gender balance, writes Rachel Hussey. A lot of the recent discussion around gender balance and its importance in business presupposes that everyone believes that working towards and achieving gender balance is a good thing and that we all know why this matters. A large body of research demonstrates that diversity is good for business. Diversity leads to better decision-making, enhances the attraction and retention of talent and, most importantly, improves the bottom line. For example, McKinsey’s recent report entitled Delivering Through Diversity shows that companies in the top quartile for gender diversity within executive boards were 21% more likely to outperform on profitability. Investors are increasingly focused on gender diversity, and Goldman Sachs in February announced that it would only underwrite IPOs in the US and Europe of private companies that have at least one diverse board member. And starting in 2021, it will raise this target to two diverse candidates for each of its IPO clients. Closer to home, the Central Bank of Ireland has called out the specific need for diversity across senior decision-making levels based on evidence of increased standards in governance practices and a more balanced risk appetite. In many industries, a large part of the challenge around achieving gender balance is the small number of women who enrol for or graduate from the degrees relevant to the industry in question. For example, engineering companies find it more difficult to recruit women because of the small percentage of women who study engineering in college, which in turn is as a result of not enough girls taking STEM subjects in school. Furthermore, in law, over 60% of graduates are women, and in 2018 there were more women on the roll of solicitors than there were men for the first time. And this trend has continued. Data published annually by the UK’s Financial Reporting Council also indicates that the numbers of men and women opting for careers in accountancy are close to or at parity in recent years. In contrast, the overall profile of the profession is closer to one-third women and two-thirds men. Anecdotal evidence suggests that the position is somewhat better in Ireland. However, a gender imbalance remains, particularly at more senior levels. This makes the retention of women in the professions a key business opportunity if employers are to harness the full value of the available talent. A key lever in professional services firms is client demand. Clients are very focused on their diversity ambitions and they expect their service providers to be as well. Firms increasingly see tender documents with questions and scoring for diversity statistics and initiatives. It is not acceptable, nor prudent, to arrive at a beauty parade with an all-male team to discuss a proposal with what is usually a diverse team on the other side. And it is not only in pitch situations. Clients – and in particular, international or global ones – now frequently include requirements around diversity in their terms of engagement. Some conduct diversity audits and evaluate the composition of teams and the numbers of hours worked by both men and women. We ultimately need to focus within professional services on representing the increasingly diverse client base that we serve. Diversity is also important from a reputational perspective. The media – and the trade press as well – have a keen focus on gender balance and new partner announcements can be the subject of criticism and comment if there is a lack of gender balance, particularly on social media. Firms that make progress in this area, and are seen to do so, will have a real competitive advantage in what is an asymmetric market. Research carried out by the 30% Club shows equally high career ambitions across men and women. However, the same study also indicates less confidence among women regarding their potential to progress. This is perhaps a topic for another article, where we might also talk about the practices a modern professional services workplace needs to attract and retain talent – all of which will be tested as we work through the current challenges posed by coronavirus.   I was very pleased to be invited to write articles in this publication on gender balance in business. Since my first article the world has experienced, and continues to experience, unprecedented change and uncertainty and that looks likely to continue for some time. Businesses will have very different priorities in the period ahead and I am writing on the basis that we will return to (perhaps a different) normal and that we can resume the discussion on issues around sustainability (including diversity) in that new normal. Rachel Hussey is Chair of 30% Club Ireland and a Partner at Arthur Cox.

Cormac Lucey helps you turbo-charge your ability to identify and absorb relevant information in three easy steps. A close friend of mine is a retired journalist. We were in school together for several years in the 1970s. He went into journalism; I went into accountancy. In sixth year, our school won the Leinster Senior Schools cup in rugby for the first time in decades. My pal kept a copy of the following day’s Irish Independent, complete with match coverage. It disappeared under the mountain of detritus we are all at risk of gathering. Then it re-emerged after both parents had died, and the family home was put up for sale. What struck Peter, in the early part of this century, was just how thin that 1978 edition of the Independent was compared to the bulky newspapers we have today. Ironically, our newspapers are bigger and better than ever before, even as they face going down under the online onslaught. In 1978, nobody was at real risk of information overload. If anything, we suffered from information poverty back then. Today, however, we are forced to deal with an abundance of information. Separating the informational wheat from the chaff is critically important today, as each of us could be submerged in the flow of information pouring our way. I read a lot – both online and in print – and have three key rules for managing the information flow I face. Rule 1: Learn to speed read and put it into practice The average best-seller we might take with us on holidays has about 400 words on each page. It is said that President John F. Kennedy could read 2,000 words per minute, equivalent to five pages per minute. I find that hard to believe. But with a disciplined approach, it should be possible to read at speeds of 500-600 words per minute regularly. What are the core elements of speed-reading? Here is a speed speed-reading course: a) Develop the good habit of reading in a smooth rhythm; abandon the bad habit of disrupting that rhythm by occasionally going back to reread a passage; b) Instead of visually absorbing single words, get into the habit of absorbing several (three to five) words with each glance; c) Measure your reading speed when you’re reading a book and focus on getting that speed up; and d) Practice reading some trashy material at an incredibly fast pace. Then, when you read regular content, you’ll find yourself chomping at the bit speed-wise, just like when you come off the motorway and chomp at the bit at the outrageously slow speed limits then imposed. Rule 2: Focus When you read something, you are reading it for a purpose. Be deliberate about that purpose. If I’m reading a newspaper, I want useful information and I want entertainment. I also want to limit the amount of time I devote to reading the paper. I am certainly not going to read all of it. The paper owes you a duty – you owe the paper no duty. Similarly, just because you have started to read a book does not mean you are duty-bound to complete it. Our time and attention are limited. If a book is boring, tedious or just getting you down, discard it and choose another. That book may deserve the dismissive review: “Once I put it down, I couldn’t pick it up!” Rule 3: Discriminate among preferred providers I follow several financial websites closely: RTE.ie – click on “Business”, “Broker Reports” and “Goodbody” and you will be directed to a comprehensive review of the previous day’s business and economic news refracted through the prism of its implications for corporate value. Google “McKinsey on finance” and you will be directed to the website of the management consultants’ quarterly report on corporate finance themes. Each quarter, five or six issues are considered in a succinct and intellectually well-founded manner with a focus on drawing actionable conclusions. Google “Damodaran online”, and you will land at the website of Aswath Damodaran, Professor of Finance at the Stern School of New York University. This site features models, including lots of detailed valuation models; data, including important sectoral cost of capital data; and Damodaran’s blog, where he analytically considers important current financial topics. Cormac Lucey FCA is an economic commentator and lecturer at Chartered Accountants Ireland.