Thought Leadership News

The Department for the Economy unveiled an ambitious plan to boost the Northern Ireland economy in 2021, but will it be up to scratch? Professor Anne Marie Ward, Dr Esmond Birnie and Dr Stuart Henderson crunch the numbers to find out if the 10x Economy vision can deliver. Some argue that the Northern Ireland (NI) economy has strong potential given its apparent unique trade position as a halfway house between Europe and Britain, combined with the Department for the Economy’s (DfE) ‘10x Economy’ policy, which targets innovation, inclusion and sustainability. Yet, despite experiencing 25 years of peace, NI continues to suffer from political uncertainty and lower economic productivity relative to Britain and the Republic of Ireland (ROI). Moreover, ongoing uncertainties associated with Brexit continue to dampen potential foreign direct investment, which has been vital to the strong economy in ROI. It is against this backdrop that the DfE introduced a new growth policy in May 2021 aimed at achieving a 10-times better economy (‘10x economy’) by 2030.  The 10x vision is underpinned by objectives grouped into three pillars—innovation, inclusive growth and sustainability—and focuses on six priority sectors:  1. Agricultural technology (agritech); 2. Life and health sciences; 3. Advanced manufacturing and engineering; 4. Financial services and financial technology (fintech); 5. Software (including cybersecurity); and 6. Screen and low carbon.   The data The Northern Ireland Economic Trade Statistics (NIETS) is a new dataset that provides details on trade between NI and Britain for the first time. We have analysed this dataset, which covers the period 2014–2020 and comprises a sample of enterprises that are VAT or PAYE registered and trade in NI.  Approximately 5,000 to 7,000 enterprises respond to the survey annually. As part of our research, we examined the 10x priority sectors over the period 2014–2020.  Data on financial services and fintech are not included in the dataset and due to GDPR issues, we had to merge some of the 10x priority areas, ending up with four 10x sectors:  • Agritech;  • Health and life sciences; • Advanced manufacturing (including low carbon); and  • Software and screen.  Approximately 11.4 percent of the total sample is classified as being 10x. Here is a summary of our findings. Growth in sales and gross value added (GVA) As shown in Table 1, the 10x sectors of the NI economy were relatively resilient from 2014–2020 as total Gross Value Added (GVA) increased over the period, though agritech was negatively impacted by COVID-19.  Performance of the non-10x sectors improved over the period 2014–2019, as evidenced by increased total GVA (except traditional manufacturing, which declined by 20.35%). Most non-10x sectors were adversely impacted by COVID-19, however, except manufacturing and ‘other’ production.  Productivity Productivity is measured by the ratio sales per employment and GVA per employment. As illustrated in Figure 1, for 2014–2020, the wholesale and retail sector had the highest sales per employment, followed by agritech and other production. Other production has the highest GVA per employment, followed by construction, health and life sciences and software and screen. Agritech has the second lowest GVA per employment. External sales behaviour A country’s wealth is influenced by its ability to attract funds from external markets. To determine how NI is doing, we investigated the trade behaviour of NI enterprises using four ratios, which reflect the percentage of overall sales each business undertakes with Britain, ROI, the rest of the European Union (REU) and the rest of the World (ROW). The average percentage for each year (2014–2020) for the whole sample is provided in Table 2.  The most important external market is Britain, accounting for on average 11.75 percent of sales, followed by ROI (6.18%), ROW (2.69%) and REU (1.74%). Generally, the percentage of total sales to these external markets increased steadily over the period 2014–2019 and declined in 2020, coinciding with COVID-19. Patterns in the percentage of total sales to the four markets are further analysed by sector over the period 2014–2020 in Figures 2 to 5. Sectoral differences are evident. Generally, non-10x enterprises (the six to the left-hand side of each figure) are less engaged with external markets relative to 10x enterprises (the four to the right-hand side of each figure).   Differences in the relative importance of markets is also observed across sectors. For example, the ROI market is most important to the agritech sector (Figure 3), and the ROW market is most important to the health and life sciences sector (Figure 5), probably indicative of sales to the US. This sector is also very active in markets in the REU (Figure 4).  Note: When interpreting these results, be aware that the data is based on the largest enterprises in NI and the authors had to design their own 10x categories based on Standard Industrial Classification codes.   Will it work? The number of enterprises in NI that can be classed as ‘10x’ increased over the period from 619 in 2014 to 723 in 2020. They are contributing GVA to the economy and, importantly, most of their turnover is to external markets, which is beneficial for a small regional economy where local demand is limited.  These enterprises seem to be resilient, with little change in behaviour observed in the period after Brexit, and, with the exception of agritech, they continued to grow despite COVID-19 (though the data was only available for 2020).  In theory, the DfE’s ambitions are laudable. Cluster approaches have proven successful in other countries, including ROI, where foreign-owned high-tech enterprises pay higher wages, invest in R&D for future growth and have high exports.  Moreover, the vision of sustainable growth and prosperity for all (levelling up) aligns with more holistic concepts of economic growth that account for social and environmental concerns alongside economic prosperity.  There are concerns, however. This is an ambitious undertaking that will take time to implement. The 2030 target set by the DfE is tight, the support structures to fuel 10x growth are not yet fully established, ‘10x’ is not yet fully defined, ‘place’ is not yet fully defined and hence the data are not (yet) available to enable 10x to be identified and analysed by place.  This will hinder the ability to foster clusters and build networks, which are important for innovation. Also, change will be difficult due to existing established structures.  For example, most policy and government action is managed through Local Government Department (LGD) level structures. However, clusters of enterprises may cross LGD boundaries, complicating a joined-up approach.  In addition, economic and social development is not only managed by the DfE; many other bodies such as central government and local government departments, business networks and educational establishments, are involved. Role for accountants Accountants can play an important role in the success of the DfE’s policy and the future of the NI economy. Accountancy firms are present in most towns across the region. Accountants are part of local business networks and have first-hand knowledge of entrepreneurship and innovation within communities.  Moreover, accountants are well-equipped to facilitate the creation of priority clusters and expanding networks that enable local businesses to connect and grow both within and beyond their communities. This will be good for communities and for the accountancy profession.   *Note: The tables and diagrams in this article are from the authors’ full report, available on the Northern Ireland Statistics and Research Agency website. Professor Anne Marie Ward, FCA, is Professor of Accounting at Ulster University; Dr Esmond Birnie is Senior Economist at Ulster University; and Dr Stuart Henderson is a Lecturer in Financial Services at Ulster University.

Childcare reform key to greater female participation in workforce: two-thirds of members pay up to €2,000/ month for childcare Workers need certainty in tax system to reflect hybrid working norms and bring an end to pandemic experimentation period.    5 January 2024 – Stronger government action to improve childcare costs and availability would boost capacity in the workforce, according to a new policy paper published today by Chartered Accountants Ireland. The Next Financial Year: Building Capacity is the first of several policy papers that the Institute will publish this year on priority areas identified by Institute members which would support the economy.  The Institute is the largest and longest-established professional accountancy body on the island of Ireland.  It has 33,000 members, two-thirds of whom work in business. Published as an open letter to policymakers and legislators, the policy paper sets out recommendations on how Government can build capacity in the economy by: Enabling greater female participation in the workforce through targeted childcare reforms  Easing cost pressures for developers & landlords to stimulate housing supply  Giving certainty to workers on place of work & commuter costs in the tax system  Building digital capabilities & resilience for businesses to succeed  Childcare reform can unlock economic contribution of female professionals Institute members identified the steep cost and lack of availability of childcare as the biggest challenge facing working parents in the profession today, with two thirds of members currently paying up to €2,000 per month in childcare costs, and 16%, mostly female members, having to reduce their working hours to care for a child. Chartered Accountants Ireland highlights solutions available to Government to increase female labour market participation such as: Increased funding, capital investment and grant support to the sector to better match the cost of providing childcare services, to meet surging demand for places & to encourage providers to grow. Reform of National Childcare Subsidies (NCS) to encourage childminders to register with Tusla, giving parents of up to 80,000 children easier access to subsidised childcare. Sinead Donovan, President of Chartered Accountants Ireland, said: “For too long, policymakers have framed childcare policy as a social issue, not an economic one. Our evidence shows that affordable, quality childcare drives more sustainable, inclusive economic growth and competitiveness. Government’s ambition to tackle the provision of childcare is welcome for businesses in today’s tight labour market. Paving the way for greater female participation in the workforce should be a priority for policymakers in 2024.”  On housing, the policy paper identifies specific measures to ease cost pressures for developers and landlords to stimulate supply, including: A deferral of PAYE and VAT payments for developers and builders on salary, material, and other costs incurred during construction, to be payable as the units are sold. This would reduce development costs, ease cash-flow concerns and make investment more appealing.  Further encouraging private landlords to remain or move into the Irish market through the taxation system. Allowing Local Property Tax as a deduction against rental income and allowing non-resident landlords to collect rents directly from tenants, rather than through Revenue or a collection agent, could provide such an incentive. In the workplace, giving certainty to workers on how their place of work and commuter costs are to be treated in the tax system would put Ireland’s employment environment on a more progressive footing, and bring to an end the pandemic experimentation period. Measures proposed include:   Introducing a more flexible version of the TaxSaver Commuter Ticket Scheme, to offer tax relief on season tickets to commuters who only use public transport 2-3 days a week, reflecting new norms around hybrid working, while promoting public transport use.  Rules to establish a normal place of work, fundamental to the tax treatment of employee travel and subsistence reimbursements, should be updated to reflect the changed circumstances that hybrid working has created.  Digital skills are essential to meet current and future workforce needs. Building digital capabilities & resilience for businesses to succeed requires Government to do more to meet its target of 80% of adults having at least basic digital skills by 2030. The Institute recommends that the digital transformation of education and training focuses on schools, equipping children with the skills needed for the jobs of the future, underpinned by the Digital Strategy for Schools to 2027. Dr Brian Keegan, Director of Public Policy for Chartered Accountants Ireland, said: “In Building Capacity, Chartered Accountants Ireland has put forward practical recommendations to help our economy thrive. Our members have once again provided vital insights into the major societal and economic challenges that both businesses and employees are facing. Our recommendations reflect their experiences and realities.  “We welcome Government engagement with many of our policy proposals in the last year, but more needs to be done. Building capacity in our economy does not stop at the bricks and mortar of much-needed housing supply. It must include targeted measures that actively facilitate women who want to work, and reflect the reality of a more dispersed, and digital-first workplace if businesses are to succeed long-term. It is within Government’s gift to put in place measures to increase economic capacity across the board, and futureproof jobs for generations to come.” ENDS

97% of parents surveyed by Chartered Accountants Ireland report that their career or working pattern has been impacted by childcare responsibilities. The findings show that 16% reduced their working hours, one quarter (27%) requested to work flexible hours, and one in five (19%) are currently considering adjusting their working hours. The survey, which gathered responses from chartered accountants in the Republic of Ireland has shed light on the significant challenges facing parents seeking childcare in Ireland. It highlights the crucial issues of cost barriers and their impact on career progression, while calling for increased childcare support. Chartered Accountants Ireland represents over 32,000 professional accountants, two thirds of whom work in business. When asked what they saw as the main barriers to securing appropriate childcare in Ireland, members highlighted both cost and capacity as being the biggest issues facing working parents. The financial burden is clear, with one third of members paying up to €1,000 a month per child on childcare, and one third paying between €1,000 and €2,000 per month. Commenting Cróna Clohisey, Tax & Public Policy Lead, Chartered Accountants Ireland said “The significant cost burden is one element of the problem, but even accessing places in childcare facilities in the first instance is a big barrier. As most of us know, this process begins long before a child is even born. Members are clear that both cost and the lack of available spaces need to be addressed by Government in order to better support working parents.”  This month’s Budget announcement provided for an increase in the national childcare subsidy (NCS) from €1.40 to €2.14 as well as extending the NCS to certain childminders, but the Institute argues that while this will help with the cost of childcare, it will not address capacity constraints within the market. Clohisey continued “A longer-term strategy for tackling ongoing capacity issues in the sector is critical – quite simply more places need to be made available but that can only happen with appropriate funding so that staff are adequately paid and therefore attracted and retained. We have an economy at full employment, and our members are overwhelmingly reporting childcare as a barrier to their full participation in the market. “While a government commitment was made to address supply issues through core funding, this funding must go beyond just keeping the sector from collapse. We are asking government to recognise that childcare provision is part of the critical infrastructure necessary for a functioning economy. The crisis needs to be addressed with a long-term strategy with children at the forefront, that adequately funds the sector, increases capacity, and supports working parents.”